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Projecting Astros '15 Roster - Advocating FA/Trade

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by travfrancis, Jun 13, 2014.

  1. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    I can't tell if this is a good or bad thing - Longoria is having, far and away, his worst year as a professional and the Rays are one of a handful of teams with an overall record as bad as the Astros'.

    I would agree with most here- Dominguez is, for now, serviceable - but a .302 OB% - while trending in the right direction (it was .286 last year) - is hard to justify keeping in the line-up every day.
     
  2. sealclubber1016

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    He had a bad start yesterday, but prior to it Folty had been dominating AAA hitters since they abandoned the tandem system. He's gonna have to fail as a starter in the MLB before the Astros try him as a reliever.
     
  3. kaleidosky

    kaleidosky Your Tweety Bird dance just cost us a run

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    Gotcha. I guess I have been reading that his superior fastball was working at AAA, but he still doesn't have the secondary stuff to get ML hitters out consistently. Has that changed? Or are you saying that just purely on AAA stats they'll give him a shot (which is certainly valid...just curious if something has changed in his repertoire)
     
  4. sealclubber1016

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    No you are pretty much right, his secondary stuff still hasn't developed into anything special, this is strictly based on results, assume success until failure.

    His fastball not only has insane velocity it also has wicked movement, it is going to be one of the most singularly devastating pitches in all of baseball. The Astros are going to give him an extended chance to show something, anything that can effectively compliment it, but relief long term is still very much a good possibility.
     
  5. air_matt

    air_matt Member

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    very true on that last part. I guess it'll be ok as long as he's not expected to be a heart of the line up guy like he is now.
     
  6. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    Was at the game last Thursday standing above left center along the rail. Just before game started Reid Ryon was walking by and stopped and just started talking to some of us. Was obviously very cool.

    We told him we followed the rebuild and minors a lot and he said, without prompt, well y'all should be seeing Foltynewicz here soon. Didn't ask specifics he was only there about two minutes, but sounds like he is close to being here.

    I asked about Santana and he said "maybe September"

    Sure would like to see him in LF couple months to see how he looks, and if LF is an area of target for offseason
     
  7. HstnSprtsFan101

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    I hope we inquire on Jeff Samardzija this trade deadline
     
  8. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    Good review article on Folty from two weeks ago: LINK

    Folty claims his spiked curve is coming along; I reckon getting more time with Strom at the big league level could help that along faster.

    The big thing for him is that it sounds like he's developing a lot more pitchability and is not just chucking 100mph fastballs anymore. Things like taking a little off to spot his FB's at the corners/knees or improving pitch sequencing to make his change-up play-up.

    I see no reason why Folty and McCullers won't be given every opportunity like Cosart to progress as starters.
     
  9. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Out of curiosity, why?

    He would cost a lot in trade and he wants a large contract. Plus starting pitching is the strength of the system.
     
  10. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    A couple reasons come to mind and I'm not even advocating for a trade like that.

    1) Get an established rotation anchor. Barring injury he's likely to throw 200 innings with strong K rates and an average or better ERA. As much as I like Dally and Colin, the rotation would take a large step forward with Samardzija at the front of the rotation. He's got the upside that no one short of Cosart has.
    2) Consolidate talent. The Astros have a ton of prospects that project to contribute to the big league club but few big leaguers that are average or better.
    3) Thin the herd. The counter point to having a system rich in pitching prospects is that the ML club isn't going to carry more than 5 starters/13 pitchers. The rotation is already more than full with 6 decent options to take the hill every night.
    4) TINSTAAPP.
    5) Reset the clock. If the Astros essentially punted this wave of pitching talent (Folty, Nitro, Wojo) by trading them, it'd buy more eval time for Keuchel, Mchugh, Cosart, Peacock until the next wave (Appel, VV, LMJ) arrived.


    Would a package of Cosart or Folty, Nitro, Alex White or Asher Wojcieshowski, and say Austin Wates really hurt the system that much? My opinion: not particularly. There's so much other high-upside talent (Appel, Aiken, LMJ, VV, Feliz) and even more MOR/BOR talent (Thurman, West, Rodgers, Emanual, Owens, Buchanan). Not to mention the total lottery ticket types (Gustave, Chris Lee, Jacob Nix).
     
  11. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    I forgot to point out that the difference between Samardzija taking the hill every five days vs. Peacock/Obie is probably enough to get us to .500 by the end of the season. And also position us to be a legitimate playoff contender next year.
     
  12. HstnSprtsFan101

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    Pretty much what you said. He's one of the best pitchers in the majors and is in his prime. If we really want to start competing we'll need a true stud on the mound..obviously I wouldn't want to give anything too crazy for him but a package similar to what you listed wouldn't hurt us too much.
     
  13. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Astros have a true stud. Another is always good, though, provided Astros don't give up too much for another one.
     
  14. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    For 2015 opening roster,

    I suspect the following:
    1. Keuchel is the ace.
    2. Cosart and McHugh will be in the rotation.
    3. Up to two of Feldman, Oberholtzer, Peacock, Folty, and Tropeano will also be in the rotation. I am not sold on Feldman being in rotation just because he makes more money than everyone else.
    4. Castro, Singleton, Altuve, Dominguez, Springer, and Fowler are starters.
    5. Grossman, Santana, or Tucker start in LF.
    6. SS...Will be Villar, Fontana, Correa, Gonzales, or someone not currently in the organization.
    7. Bullpen will be Qualls, Fields, a guy or two that didn't win starter spot, at least one rethread reclamation project, and one or two other guys.
    8. If available, I suspect Astros sign a stud free agent pitcher to go with Keuchel.
    9. At least one trade making at least one of items 2-8 invalid.
    10. Chris Carter will still be the DH. He'll put up a slightly below average season for a DH, but fans will loathe him like he is the biggest suck that ever sucked.
     
    #34 Joe Joe, Jun 17, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2014
  15. studogg

    studogg Contributing Member

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    not feeling the McHugh love with you guys. He's got a beautiful curveball but I think he's been pitching over his head and is quickly regressing to the mean. I'd expect him to fall out of the rotation this year and if I were Lunhow, I'd be exploring trades while his value is inflated.
     
  16. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    Agreed, but will gladly accept being proven wrong.
     
  17. kaleidosky

    kaleidosky Your Tweety Bird dance just cost us a run

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    He walks too many guys. But for someone with a good out pitch and a high K rate, one would think he has a lot of ability to improve that. If he cuts down on his walks and starts going 6 innings in most games, I think he'll stick. If not, he won't. Based on what he's shown and his growth, I'd happily give him that shot rather than trade him.
     
  18. studogg

    studogg Contributing Member

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    good points but the K rate is an anomoly that's only taken place this season, plus we have strong talent below that I value slightly higher (right or wrong). I see this as a sell high situation, but it's only my opinion and definitely subject to being a flat out bad one at that.
     
  19. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    He will regress to the mean. Zips and Steamer are projecting his mean to be a FIP of 4.44 and 4.34 using in season data as well as data from past years. Oliver projection had him at a 4.33 FIP in the preseason. Those projections look like a BoR starting pitcher to me.

    Taking into account:
    1. His curve ball looks wicked this season
    2. He is throwing 1-2.5 mph faster this season
    3. His HR/FB rate was over 18 (8-12 is normal) his first two seasons
    4. His career xFIP is 3.93

    I suspect he will out perform the projections for his FIP...which already are projecting him as BoR starter.
     
  20. kaleidosky

    kaleidosky Your Tweety Bird dance just cost us a run

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    see article about McHugh

    Summarizing:

     
    #40 kaleidosky, Jun 17, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2014
    1 person likes this.

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