it's not as black and white as you (and others) make it out to be. trading a current mlb player for a prospect isn't always "sacrificing the present" to "hoard prospects". would you be ok with trading carlos corporan for kris bryant or byron buxton? that's an extreme example obviously, but there are various degrees of trading big leaguers for minor leaguers. prudent decisions are prudent decisions. every significant transaction made in the foreseeable future (and certainly this offseason) will be in line with competing for a title within the next 2-3 years.
Thanks. You do realize I'm the one who has always questioned whether or not it was even beneficial to suck this badly by design, and that no matter how they do from here on out, I've lamented how badly they've killed baseball interest in Houston? (Not to mention my stance on stashing a 24 year old minor league player for $$$ reasons... imagine GS last year not having to wait a month and then not having to spend an additional 2-3 weeks adjusting). Don't worry, it is possible for a team to be good without overpaying for a closer... Who seems to be using them for leverage anyways (shocker). We are all on the same page. Building the best possible team at all times. No experimenting with mediocre starting pitchers (Harrell), and no having managers that have no clue how to utilize a bullpen.
One of my biggest concerns (which remains justified) is that the nerd cave super-computers could always potentially assign higher values to prospects and former high round draft picks vs. established MLB players on the cusp of free agency, or ones that seem to have "peaked" at a young age. It justifies trading 24 year old fan favorite starting MLB pitchers for potential. We know Luhnow knows prospects and how to build a farm... already proven that. Has not proven that he can acquire/sign/trade for established/proven MLB talent that supplements the young "on the cusp" players to push this team into contention. Teams can and will continue to dangle the exact type of prospects Luhnow covets.... but if we're planing on competing in the next 2-3 years, its going to take some actual MLB talent now to supplement what the prospects that actually succeed. Sure, every now and then a team falls into a group of young-ins that do it... like the Royals did this year... but this fan base will not likely accept continuing to kick the can down the road till they get a young core that did what it took the Royals 30 years to do (and, of course, the Luhnow/nerd cave experiment will be long over prior to that time-frame of non-contention).
First of all, calling Cosart a "fan favorite" is ridiculous. He was a fun story to follow when he was first called up amid all of the surrounding misery of the franchise, but I'm fairly confident in saying that in general, our fan base could take him or leave him at the time of his trade, and didn't have any special attachment to him. I somewhat agree that the fan base will grow restless with the "kicking the can down the road", but I also think (other than that particular phrase painting it in a negative light) it's the correct plan of attack. As the can gets kicked down the road, pieces are now steadily revealing themselves as mainstays/building blocks. Altuve, Correa, and Springer, obviously. Keuchel and McHugh, hopefully. Carter has now emerged as somebody who will either be a building block or traded and replaced with somebody who can provide comparable output. Everybody else is currently in flux, expendable, or both. There's nothing wrong with that. Fowler is a solid player, but far from elite. If he can be flipped for a premium prospect, who has a chance to bring us better, cheaper production within a couple years, I'm all for it. You cited the Royals, but don't forget that when the Stros were good for that long stretch in the late 90's, it was a result of our young core. Who the hell knows if we'll be able to sign anybody significant in the next several years? If reports are true of this jackass closer using us for leverage and risking losing a massive overpay of a contract to not play for us, that's borderline frightening. "Kicking the can down the road" till we are able to amass a ton of productive young MLB talent may not only be the most viable option, but their only option.
This may have more to do with Fowler heading towards his free agent year than Luhnow really wanting to trade him. Fowler's agent is Casey Close and I don't think Luhnow is on his Christmas list.
That explains somethings. I did get the impression from a few different sources that the Astros were under pressure from Fowler or his agent last season to keep him in center. Didn't realize it was Close as his agent.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Source: Astros likely will not sign Andrew Miller. <a href="http://t.co/DvyW8YMNb6">http://t.co/DvyW8YMNb6</a></p>— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) <a href="https://twitter.com/EvanDrellich/status/540354614114009088">December 4, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> Spoiler <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>andrew miller update: yankees look like a finalist, with astros among teams looming as a threat. <a href="http://t.co/f5dL3FHEcO">http://t.co/f5dL3FHEcO</a></p>— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/540326316164546560">December 4, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>One factor that could favor <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> for Miller: Per <a href="https://twitter.com/SportsTaxMan">@SportsTaxMan</a>, AL West teams hold edge in free agency. No state income tax in TX or WA.</p>— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/540334966543228928">December 4, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>So, an <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> player who lives in Texas would not pay state income tax on spring games in FL, 81 home games and road games in TX and WA.</p>— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/540334972163596289">December 4, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Is tax advantage the No. 1 factor for free agents when they make a decision? No, but it is a factor - and could help drive up the bidding.</p>— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/540334976760561664">December 4, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
It comes down to reasonable goals and expectations. If they truly expect to compete for a championship in 2017, they’d need to start by making the playoffs this year or next. With career years from all the ‘core’ players, they barely won 70 games last year. To add the necessary 20 wins necessary to get to wild card range, they’ll need dependable production from significantly more positions. Trading established production for another high-variance prospect is counter to that goal at this stage. Frankly, Luhnow needs to focus less on the future (2018-2021) than the near term (2015-2017) because if he goes 6 years without making the playoffs he needs to be fired.
Cosart trade was not kicking the can down the road. Astros had no can to kick. Marisnick is a valuable center fielder in my opinion and was close in WAR to Cosart after the trade despite Cosart breaking out in Miami and playing out of position. He's the better player now than Cosart and is younger. Moran has a very good chance of being a decent improvement at 3rd base a year faster than Ruiz. The Astros should get to the can a year sooner with Moran. Moran has very good chance at being a better player than Cosart even with Cosart improving like a normal player. Hernandez is the wild card in Miami's favor and it more likely that he makes the Astros regret trade by becoming a starting 2B than Cosart drastically improving to the point he is better than Marisnick and Moran. Astros still have pick from trade. I would put its value about that of Hernandez's though some see it as much more and an other may see it as valueless. P.S. I wasn't a fan of Cosart's before trade as he isn't very deceptive with his pitches and will likely not improve at the rate of a normal player as more batters get more familiar with his delivery.
Responding to this point specifically, since xcrunner did a decent job re-iterating my point in the post above. To say that calling Cosart a "fan favorite" is "ridiculous" speaks volumes as to how far baseball interest has plummeted here. He was as much of a fan favorite as would be allowed under this regime of sucktitude... the other candidates required a historic statistical batting champion season (Altuve), and a historic meteoric rookie debut (Springer). Its very possible that not a single Astro fan has a "special attachment" to any single Astro right now (which is sad, especially since kids rely on that to get into teams/sports to begin with). As it was, yes Cosart was the first real callup in this regime that generated a significant buzz.... and him being a local kid certainly doesn't hurt matters. In "normal" times, he would have been even more of a fan favorite... but I don't think its "ridiculous" to say he was liked more than most other Astro pitchers.
You put waaaaay too much value and expectations into Marisnick... especially for a guy who will not be the everyday CF here if Fowler is here (and only really got a chance to play due to injuries to Springer/Fowler when the trade was made... not guaranteed to be an everyday player next year). That is all. (you're also pretty admittedly biased against Cosart, as you still believe he is incapable of improving... despite him actually showing sustained improvement post-trade... which will make me question your overall evaluation ability of this trade).
Biased against Cosart? My biases against Cosart are much, much less than yours against the Astros front office. My view of Cosart didn't drastically change based on the trade. I have had the consistent view the past year that he's BoR with MoR upside on a normal team. Cosart showed sustained improvement that was virtually identical to Marisnick's in performance based stats most unbiased observers would use to rate the trade which you have even used in different situations. If Cosart has shown sustained improvement, the same should be said of Marisnick who is younger and put up same performance while mostly playing out of position. Fowler played center because either the managers were stupid and/or the front office didn't have the balls to challenge the agent for their 1st overall pick and 5th round pick. I think it was both. You have been huge in trading Fowler this offseason, basically said he was valueless in a trade the Astros didn't make.....but when it comes to proving a point against me (who I assume you regard as an Astros Front Office homer which I am, but not to the degree I think you view me) and the Astros Front office....he would play over Marisnick. If Fowler is as expendable as you say....the Astros must have a good replacement. Springer can't play all three outfield postions. Unless you are huge closet Grossman or Pressley fan, I took Fowler as being expendable as you silently accepting Marisnick was a good find even if it cost the Astros a lot (granted we disagree on the cost). I am biased....it comes down to degree. I accept that I have them and try to use stats to mitigate my biases. You've said before that you don't give the Astros the benefit of the doubt basically admitting you are biased against the front office. I was not a huge Marisnick fan before the trade. It was a good trade for the future in my opinion at the time of the deal based on Moran. I saw Marinick. I loved him. With the way Marisnick played last year...Astros didn't lose much are anything if last season and have 7 years of Moran, 5 years of Marisnick to match Cosart's 5 assuming Hernandez and draft pick cancel. You've never acknowledged as far as I can tell that Marisnick had a pretty good month or two with the Astros...which I only see as bias. I can see that Cosart had 5 or 6 good games with the Marlins. Btw...Cosart's sustained improvement lasted about 5-6 games. His last 5 games were basically the same as he was with the Astros with league adjustment. Odd how Cosart's was really good in the AL at first as well. Just maybe, a pitcher that has good stuff, but isn't deceptive does really well before hitters have a chance to see him or prep time to watch video of him. For Cosart to have great improvement to make the Astros lose this deal, he needs to throw a four seam fastball from same arm slot as his curve ball or have something that plays off his cutter. Astros were unable to do this. Good luck to the Marlins on this endeavor. There may be some hidden value in Cosart which I've acknowledged in the past.
This was based on you saying your PS ("I wasn't a fan of Cosart before the trade"). Obviously, you've drawn a line in the sand with his low ceiling in your opinion. Also, as far as the league "adjusting"... 2-3 of his great starts came against the Rangers and Angels, teams that have seen plenty of him. He's made some adjustments as well. 24 year old quality starting MLB pitchers are not a dime/dozen. He started out the year strong, faltered around the all-star break, and had two good/great months after the trade while the Marlins were in the hunt. As far as the Marisnick issue, all I'm saying is that he's not going to be as valuable as you say he is because Fowler is the everyday CF. If they trade Fowler, as I expect/want them to do, he has value on defense... but will still need to hit (cannot be Adam Everett-type production) to maintain his place in the lineup. His questionable hitting is what was keeping him from being a super-duper prospect... the defense has always been there. Also, I've never said Fowler is "value-less"... just that I'd prefer MLB players in return in a trade for him, castro, or whichever other arbitration player they decide to trade before their raises/free agency years. As far as the rest of your speech.... I'm not a front office "hater". I will question moves I don't agree with (stashing Springer, Cosart trade, bungling the draft), while supporting the moves I feel makes this team closer to contention (Conger trade, McHugh, firing Porter, the Appel selection... which I still support).... not sure how many times I have to re-iterate that to you. It would help if I could just willingly give Luhnow/Crane the benefit of every single doubt I have.... but I've never evaluated any of my teams like that (especially the ones that haven't won anything in a while). That is not bias... that is not accepting everything put in front of you as solid gold.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Yankees, Braves and Royals were runners-up for Brett Anderson, who goes to the Dodgers for one year and $10M. Incentives start at 150 IP.</p>— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/544625229092253696">December 15, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Did I hear that correctly on <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBNetworkRadio">@MLBNetworkRadio</a>? The Astros are a sleeper on Cole Hamels and are willing to include Appel according to Bowden</p>— Sean Feist (@native_astro) <a href="https://twitter.com/native_astro/status/544953179465846784">December 16, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Yeah, it seems like if he is on the market, and the Astros are willing to include Appel, it would be an insta-trade for them.
