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The Way We Hear It — NFL draft

Who is the draft's most coveted talent — Bush or Williams?

By Nolan Nawrocki
April 18, 2006

Rumblings came out of Texans headquarters last week that the coaches were really beginning to focus on the player evaluation process after the Broncos' extended postseason and new head coach Gary Kubiak's concentration on assembling a staff had delayed the process. The way we hear it, now that the staff has had more time to evaluate the elite talent in this draft, there is some division on the subject of which player the team values the most — with the owner still favoring Reggie Bush and the coaches being enthralled with Mario Williams.

More intrigue has engulfed the Texans' selection in the last 24 hours as word came into PFW that multiple trade partners could potentially be lining up to nab Bush with the Texans' top spot.

The Texans' interest in trading down still seems to be much greater than others' interest in moving up, but the latest news is that as many as three candidates exist to move up to the top spot. The New York Jets would appear to have the most ammunition (with 10 picks, including three in the top 35) and interest, with owner Woody Johnson flying to Los Angeles as part of a contingent of Jets executives, including GM Mike Tannenbaum, head coach Eric Mangini and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, to meet with not only Matt Leinart but Bush too.

Other potential trade partners include the Raiders, where Al Davis is said to be enamored with the local standout runner, as well as Tennessee, which previously met with Bush after the Trojans' pro-day workout. Of the three potential suitors, the Titans could become the most competitive immediately with the addition of Bush. Our sources, however, still say the Titans are locked on selecting a quarterback. As it pertains to the Raiders, our sources pointed to Davis' last-minute effort to trade up for Eli Manning in the 2004 draft. If the Raiders could not muster enough value to move from No. 2 to No. 1 in '04, how could they go from No. 7 to No. 1 this year without mortgaging the future? Maybe Davis is willing to do so, given his worsening health, but our sources think the Raiders are convinced they will be able to land an impact player at their current slot. And the presence of RB LaMont Jordan on their roster means that running back isn't a priority need for the Raiders.

With less than two weeks remaining before the draft, there is much anticipation and mounting urgency about beginning contract talks for the first overall pick. The Texans, however, have yet to begin negotiations with any player, instead exploring trade opportunities. Team sources said the Texans were turned off by the "cocky demeanor" with which the Bush camp approached its meeting with the club and began exploring initial discussions with Williams not long after that meeting.

While the Texans' late interest in Williams would appear to be just a smokescreen to gain leverage in their dealings with Bush, at least nine general managers and college scouting directors with whom PFW has spoken in the last week said the freakishly athletic Williams was their top-graded talent in this draft. An independent analyst can never be certain he is receiving the truth from teams in April, but it is important to acknowledge that four of these teams admitted they do not have a legitimate chance to draft Williams and a number come from consistently winning progams.

Although it defies popular convention, with even a monkey able to see Bush's impressive talent, a strong case could be made for the Texans' selecting Williams. The logic in the building, as we were told by those with influence in the decision, is that Williams could play 60 downs a game, whereas Bush will only contribute on 25-30.

We also hear that the Texans are nervous about paying the RB position such a premium. The Dolphins were teetering on their decision to draft Ronnie Brown for the same reason a year ago before ultimately biting the bullet and settling on him with the second overall pick. The value of the contract simply outweighs the position and would essentially make Bush the highest-paid runner in the league.

The franchise value for a running back (calculated by averaging the salary of the top five players at the position) is $6.1 million. There are five other positions (QB, DE, LB, OL, WR) with higher franchise values associated with the position, with quarterback ($8.8 million) and defensive end ($8.3 million) being the highest-paid on each side of the ball.

Had the Texans taken a defensive end instead of a quarterback in 2002 when they were building their initial roster, there is no telling where they might be now. The Texans still firmly stand behind their decision to draft "a franchise quarterback," but David Carr has struggled behind an injury-plagued offensive line and not yet shown he is anything more than an average quarterback. Meanwhile, Julius Peppers, taken with the second overall pick, has played his way to the Pro Bowl and helped bring the Panthers to one Super Bowl and within a game of another in two of the last four years.

It is not fair to compare their pro success at this point with completely different circumstances surrounding each, with Carr not having time to throw or a lot of talent around him and Peppers playing on one of the best defensive lines in football. Nonetheless, taking a player with the potential to be a franchise quarterback is night and day from drafting a player who has the potential to be a franchise running back. A lot of great running backs have been drafted outside the first round, including Clinton Portis (2), Tiki Barber (2), Curtis Martin (3) and even the Texans' own three-time 1,000-yard rusher, Domanick Davis (4), whom they found on the second day of the draft.

Adding to the intrigue is a growing school of thought in league circles that it was Reggie White — not Brett Favre — who ultimately pushed the Packers over the hump and Bruce Smith, drafted first overall in 1985 — not Jim Kelly — who was most instrumental to the Bills' four Super Bowl trips.

The premium positions most difficult to fill on offense are quarterback and offensive tackle. On defense, they are defensive end and cornerback. If a team needs help in one of those areas, they most often have to draft them in the first round and develop them because they are simply too difficult to find in free agency, with teams tending to lock up their own early.

A great quarterback like Peyton Manning has shown that he can be average when he is attacked by heavy pressure. A great pass rusher can make a quarterback look bad and his cornerbacks look great, but a great cornerback can appear very average without pressure.

The key to winning games in the National Football League begins in the trenches. Great offensive and defensive lines win football games. Just look at last year's Super Bowl to understand this fundamental truth.

Seattle, possessing one of the league's most potent offenses, with an MVP runner (Shaun Alexander) and three Pro Bowl players (Walter Jones, Steve Hutchinson and Matt Hasselbeck) at key positions, could not move the ball effectively against the Steelers. Defense won the game. Bill Belichick and Bill Cowher are defensive-minded coaches. Together they have won the Super Bowl the last four years with a very pressure-intensive, attacking style of defense.

The Patriots, considered the closest thing to a dynasty in the 21st century, have won three Super Bowls in five years with a stifling defense and have invested most of their high picks in defensive linemen while electing to have good running backs (Antowain Smith, Corey Dillon), not great ones. They recently awarded one of the most lucrative contracts to a defensive player (Richard Seymour) whom Belichick and GM Scott Pioli initially decided to make the cornerstone of their franchise when they first took the job — as former Patriots assistant Mangini now prepares to do in New York.

The Buccaneers won a Lombardi Trophy in 2002, not because Jon Gruden was lighting up the scoreboard but because Monte Kiffin's defense found a way to pressure Rich Gannon. The Ravens beat the Giants, not with their offense, but with their defense. Brian Billick, known for his offensive prowess, won his only Super Bowl with a dominating defense.

Even arguably the best team in football last year, the Indianapolis Colts — with a wide array of offensive superstars, and a club that was on a quest for the first undefeated season since the 1974 Miami Dolphins — elected to re-sign every significant superstar with the exception of Edgerrin James — their four-time Pro Bowl running back. As the logic goes, "Great running backs get you to the Pro Bowl. Great pass rushers win Super Bowls."

It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that the game of football is about pressure — both creating and avoiding it. There are two players in this draft who can best help a team in those areas — Williams and Virginia's D'Brickashaw Ferguson. At least one team with which PFW spoke had those two players graded as the top two players in this draft. Generally speaking, from many discussions with evaluators, Ferguson is very good, but he does not possess the capability at his position that Williams does at his.

"Ferguson will be a good pro," said one general manager. "I'm not convinced he will be an elite tackle. His balance and reach are exceptional. But he is more high-hipped than I like them to be cut."

"Williams is the best player in the draft," the source opined. "I've been looking at players for nearly 30 years, and I have never quite seen one like him. You have to remember how young he is. His natural playing weight will be close to 320 pounds. Guys that size were not meant to move the way he could."

With questions still persisting about how many times Bush will be able to carry the ball and how much different he is from Domanick Davis and some of the other change-of-pace backs who have played in the league, such as Eric Metcalf, it would not surprise us in the least if the Texans were to stay at the No. 1 spot and draft Williams. The media campaign has definitely favored the Heisman Trophy winners from USC, but come Draft Day, it is still possible that the Texans do what is best for their football team.

Philadelphia fans booed Donovan McNabb in 1999 when the Eagles bypassed Ricky Williams — the Heisman Trophy-winning, NCAA-record-breaking pit bull from the University of Texas. Fans cheered and applauded, and excitement filled the air in New Orleans as the Saints gave up their entire draft for the Heisman Trophy winner. Three years later, the Eagles were fighting for a divisional championship, and the Saints were undergoing a complete organizational overhaul.

With many Houston natives clamoring for "the President" to make his home in Texas, the Texans could be confronted with the same issue. But public sentiment is not what any good evaluator concerns himself with. It was stated decades ago — "Offense sells tickets. Defense wins championships." The Texans need to make the best decision for their football team, and many decision makers in the National Football League would be surprised if they did not take William