I think China would want Ming to go to the NBA this year as opposed to next because there is already a concensus #1 pick next year, the highschooler James LeBaron (sp?). I also think the money they will make off of Ming is pretty big also. Ming only make like $80,000 this year. So the CBA and Sharks will be making alot. The sharks enough to pay for most of their payroll for the next few years. Well its all speculation. We'll find out tomorrow.
I agree. Someone mustve told China that next year Yao will not be the #1 pick (LeBron james is already a lock - save any major injuries). Knowing this, it's get it done now or risk the embarassment that he gets picked lower next year than he wouldve gone this year. That would be a total loss of face. If China continues to wait another year, they lose even more $$, Yao will become older and perhaps less marketable, and more teams may become leery. Plus in 2 years there might be another potential "can't miss" that may displace Yao as the #1 choice This of course assumes Yao does not get injured the next 2-3 years. China knows theyre taking a huge risk if they don't do the deal.
We also need to take into consideration that Yao already brings alot of revenue(possibly in the ten's of millions) to the CBA each year from ticket sales, merchandise and endorsements. He probably won't generate that amount of revenue for them in the NBA, so it's going to be up to the CBA to weigh how important it is to them to have Yao Ming in the greatest forum for the game of basketball. IMO two things will keep Ming from becoming and NBA player, greed and stupidity.
The major obstacle for Yao is a buyout with the Shanghai Sharks. According to the report, they are seeking a payout in the range of $15-20 million. Yao is looking for something in the $3 million range. That's a pretty wide gulf and there isn't much the Rockets can do about it at this point. They can only contribute $350,000 to any buyout. "We ask [the NBA's] understanding and forgiveness," Xinhua quoted the Chinese Basketball Association as saying. "Whether Yao Ming goes to the United States to participate in the draft does not all influence his playing in the NBA." ***This could be posturing by the CBA and the Sharks in an attempt to get Yao to pay the Sharks more in a buyout. If Yao's representatives can't work out a buyout for Yao before Wednesday, there's still a chance the Rockets could balk on drafting Yao No. 1. To make matters worse for Yao, the Fort Worth Star Telegram is reporting today that Wang Zhi Zhi is defecting from China. "He's already missed two deadlines to return to China," a source told the Star Telegram. "Whether they want to say it's a defection or not, and his guy, Simon Chan, will say it's not, they've been given ultimatums, and they refused to go back. . . He's defected, but he wants to make it seems like it's not a defection. They're playing a very dangerous bargaining game right now."
oeilpere - that's my concern with any "understanding" that the Rox obtain with the Chinese govt. What are we going to do if Ming comes over, learns hoops for 4 years, becomes an all star, and then the Chinese govt says, that's it, he's coming back. We sue the Chinese govt? Where? In the US? How will we enforce a judgmetn? In China? No way we win. Invoke the Hague Convention? Our best hope is political pressure and honor. The Chinese govt will not want to be accused of breaking a promise. Still, it will be interesting. The negos btwn Ming and the Sharks should be simpler. They're just trying to divide the money. 610 reported the other day that the fundamental difference is that Ming's camp wants to pay the Sharks a sum certain (fixed dollar amount), whereas the Sharks want a percentage of Ming's salary (which could grow immensely if Ming pans out and gets a max contract.) I think they can easily work out a hybrid Fixed plus percentage compensation arrangement. But what this tells me is that both Ming and the Sharks believe Ming will be a huge success and get a max out deal. Has anyone thought of the marketing potential of Ming? How much do you think Nike will pay Ming to endorse anything? Market of a bajillion people? Forget Tiger Woods. Let the bidding wars begin.
