I am starting to think that Novak may be much more than advertised. Most commets have him as an unathletic sharpshooter. That is not what I am seeing. He appears quick, quick hands, quick feet. He seems to have a nose for the ball, he is rebounding well. He is 6' 10," slim but tall. Seems smart, anticipates well, has good vision. Who is this guy? Is he actually a future starter? Is he possibly a future star? Who does he remind you of? He may turn out to be the surprise of the draft.
I'm not sure what statistical land you live in, but here in the NBA, 0.373 is a pretty damn good percentage. Last year, only 10 teams averaged above 37% from the 3 pt. line, with the leader just UNDER 40% (which seems to be your breakpoint for being "good"). And the Rockets? 27th in the L at 33.2%. If we can manage 37.3 for the season and be in the top 10 teams, I think most normal people would call it "impressive".
I am quite aware that 0.373 is good from behind the arc as a team. I live in the statistical land of a very unique humor. The Dennis Miller ratio is orders of magnitude greater than mine.
I think Novak this year becomes a spot starter and primary first or second man off the bench. Think about it for a minute. We are going to play Shane defensively at PF most of the time. Shane is going to get the assignment on Dirk, KG, all those guys. Now when we play Dallas, are they going to start Stack or Buckner at the SG??? If they start Buckner, he is not an offensive threat. They've got him out there to D up. So, in that case, we would actually be better in my mind with a lineup of TMAC, Shane, and Novak out there. Here's why. Defensively, you zone up a little bit with Shane working on Dirk. You let Novak take Buckner and McGrady on Howard. I think those are good matchups defensively. Then offensively you've got Shane in the corner, Novak on the wing and perhaps Rafer in the corner or at the top or wing with Novak in the corner. You've got the floor spread for 111. Now, if you have Snyder in there in this scenario, defensively you've got Snyder taking Howard probably and McGrady taking Buckner. Yeah, McGrady can take a break defensively but do we pick up that much, especially on the offensive end?? You know Dallas is going to zone it up and if Snyder is out there, I would bet they take their chances and lay off him a little bit. I'd rather have Novak myself. Now, let's say Dallas has Stack in there with Terry and Howard and Dirk. The strength of Stack's game is the post up, kinda like Bonzi with more midrange jumpers and less drives to the rim than Bonzi but basically the same range. So, if we are going to man up and double then Snyder plays. But if we are going to zone up and try to take as much advantage of their zone as possible then Novak is the man once again. Besides that, if Stack wants to try that post up mess, stick McGrady on him and play a zone on everybody else with Novak sticking Howard on the perimeter. This forces Howard to go inside, clogs up the middle and leaves Dallas with fewer options offensively. To me, Snyder and Novak are mix and match players depending on who our opponent is. And if Novak's game develops to any degree at all to where he can be adequate on the boards and work decently in some sort of zone defensive scheme, he is going to be a 25-30 mpg player. You cannot underestimate the overall team effeciency he adds to our team by hitting 40-45% of his 3's with the defense scrambling to stop him. Right now this guy is Larry Bird without the ball handling, passing, and rebounding sense. (Now that is not saying much because without his ability to see the floor and pass, and find the boards, Bird was a very average player who could shoot lights out.) If Novak adds some ball skills.......look out. Don't get me wrong. I don't think he will ever be Larry Bird. But he is one of the best pure open shooters in the NBA right now. If he can maintain those percentages in the regular season against defenses that are scrambling to stop him and if he adds some passing and the ability to shake free for the shot when he has the basketball, he is going to be tough to handle.
I am very impressed with our team, especially Battier... He does those little things, something we were missing last year.. Novak, we all know about Novak now... I am impressed with Spanoulis controlling the tempo and his team he does it better then Alston, but for right now he needs to work on his turnovers... Alston needs to keep up with his shot...he is 10 of 19 from the three point line..sweet can't wait to see Bonzi in action..
bowen will not be cut right now. he is injured. Sura will probably announce retirement and come off the books. I think Jacobsen will be cut since his contract is non guaranteed
I agree, the Rockets may have struck gold with this guy. I think he is going to get much, much better. He reminds me a little of Dirk, other than the shot, I am not sure why, but he does.
Most of us probably forgot Novak is the son of a basketball coach. That means despite not being the most athletic guy on a typical basketball team, Novak has long possessed solid fundamentals covering all facets of the game (sort of like Yao), which belie his most standout skill we are accustomed to -- the sharp shooting from outside. As to which player he resembles most, my very first thought was another tall, gangly whiteboy from the Midwest, Kevin McHale, who also played at forward position. A great player he was, however, McHale was best known for his herky-jerky low post moves which sometimes made you amused (or annoyed, depending on which side you were). Novak on the other hand has silky smooth shooting strokes that are an envy of many of today's NBA players. Other famous players I thought about were sharp shooters like Jeff Hornacek and Steve Kerr, but both were guards and kind of short in physique comparison. Perhaps Novak looks somewhat like Tom Chambers, another forward. But then again, Chambers didn't do particularly well in 3-point shooting. Maybe we should stop using poor man's this or rich man's that when describing Novak. The kid is doing great right now and we shall hope he develops into an all-star before our own eyes in not-too-distant future, as a Rocket.
Rafer got a lot of heat from me because his shooting % (FG and 3) really sucked last year for a PG, and he is below a career 40% shooter from the field suggesting last year could easily be part of a further negative trend rather than an anomoly. But yes it is a huge positive sign the way Rafer is shooting. If he shoots high 30s I won't rag on him, 40% or more is gravy. This is a very encouraging sign and I'll give him props if he plays anywhere like this. Snyder playing well within the team concept, even if is shooting % is below excepted, is also a good sign. Him and Bonzi really give us big athletic guards. The most dissappointing is the combined TOs and poor shooting efficiency from JL3 and VSpan--who I thought would compete for major PG minutes, maybe even challenging Alston. But with Alston playing so well, and the fact Head should do no worse than split time at PG/SG given the play of our big SGs as noted above, as long as Alston, Bonzi, Snyder and Head are healthy we don't need any quality minutes from VSpan or JL3 this year. So I am extremely pleased with how the roster is shaping up. And very important, I think we can keep all our players minutes down below 35MPG because of the much higher quality of bench role players. Sure we will have a drop off with Tmac or Battier out, but pluggin in guys like Wells or Novak/Hayes for the loss isn't near as steep as years before. Now taking out Yao is a bigger loss, but putting in a fresh JH or Deke for him (depending if we want O or D) and having that guy play with say Battier, Tmac, Bonzi and Head with Tmac running the show as a point forward, still a heck of a good offensive and defensive team. Lots of very formidable line-ups even with 1 or 2 of our best players resting. Potentially we could be good enough where close to half the games are non-contests by early 4th quarter, and JL3, VSpan and Padgett can be the core of the group to play then.
I have a feeling this is due to new ball, I think he just needs time to get used to it. Either way he said that he wants to defer to Yao this year, and if that happens I think something unexpected may happen. YAO WINNING MVP. I think Yao has as good a chance as anyone to win MVP, and it will happen if he just gets SOME respect (which he gets none of as of now...)
Man! DD that was pretty awesome stats and like everybody speculated, this is one sweet team to be assembled! GO ROCKETS!
Just watching him reminds me of a young RudyT with more size and shooting range and a less physical game. So far I am not seeing why he was a second round pick though. I know there's a premium on athleticism in the NBA especially now, but this kid can play. Eventally I'd like to see some screens run for him and a little pick and pop action. He get his feet set so quickly that I would think that would be highly effective. Defensively I haven't seen him completely exposed yet but I think his PT would vary a great deal depending on the matchups, but I liked jopatmc's analysis - we might be able to play him much more than we think.
Alston is shooting the ball very well. I'm glad to see all the shooting in the offseason has payed off.
I don't think anyone should have expected VSpan to play well at first (especially preseason). That he has done as well as he has (in a few games) is surprising. I have believed in his ability to play in this league but I don't exect to see him much until at least mid season. Too many adjustments for him to make. Even Rockets hero Sam Cassell took half a year before he was much of a backup.
