If it is Obama vs. McCain (which it won't be), it won't be close. McCain's personal traits are great, but his political record is abysmal. The worst thing possible for McCain is to stand up for 8 months and have to defend his Senate record daily. It wouldn't be pretty. McCain's surge is tied to exactly one thing: He just went ahead in New Hampshire because after a newspaper endorsement, a bunch of undecided voters threw their support behind him. Because he's always been a media darling, the media has jumped on his bandwagon. The problem is that probably half of his new supporters won't show up in New Hampshire, he'll fail in the only place that he had a chance, and he'll go back to the Senate just like the dozen times before. The thing that strikes me as odd is how he got any support in New Hampshire anyway. New Hampshire voters are probably the truest conservatives in the union, and generally support candidates that vote for two things: free speech and low taxes. McCain voted against the Bush tax cuts, and has been the most consistent opponent of free speech in Washington during his career.
I think McCain is the only real shot for the Republican Party in the general election. He's the only one that gives off any appearance of change...and I think change will carry the day.
I know..it's funny that way. But I look at the bunch...and just consider first-blush thoughts about each...he's the only one I think who is perceived as a breath of fresh air. Look, I don't think the Republicans are gonna win, no matter who they put up. I would be very surprised if they did. But I think McCain actually represents their best chance. If the Dems nominate Hillary I'll have to think about it. If they nominate Obama or Edwards, they have my vote.
Maybe traditionally Republican voters are thinking like you. I certainly hope not. McCain is as electable as Bob Dole or John Kerry. At least McCain wouldn't have the embarassment of losing to a President with really low approval ratings.
Except I'm not really a traditional Republican voter. I've voted all over the map. I just look at that cast of characters and they all seem stodgy. McCain carries with him some history of crossing party lines and at least appearing to think for himself. I don't necessarily get that out of the others. Again...not based on reality but based on the perception that becomes the reality...as sad as I think that is.
McCain imo is the best man for the job but if he does not get the nomination I can't see myself voting for any of the other republicans in this race. I might look to Bloomberg if it's like Romney and Obama
People have been underestimating McCain for the last 6 months. Both Obama and McCain will draw a whole lot of independents - and for the first time in a long time, it will be a relatively clean, issues-based campaign. Don't count McCain out at all - he has a great deal of appeal and his credibility on foreign affairs will help him a lot. Whereas all the other candidates ran away from the surge (Dem side) or lukewarmly supported it (on the GOP side), he embraced it - and if things do continue to improve in terms of fatalities (regardless of the long-term benefits), it gives him a huge boost. Not true - McCain's been climbing for about 1-2 months at the expense of Guiliani. It really started with his debate performances a few months ago where Guiliani and Romney looked like little kids. When Republicans saw their choices on a stage together, McCain was the one credible adult in the group. He's been steadily on the uphill climb. You could see the McCain climb coming quite a while back. The best thing for him is for Huckabee to win today and push Romney down - that makes NH easier for him to win and might eliminate Romney entirely. New Hampshire loved him in 2000 as well - they are very politically independent.
I'm hearing from people on the ground that Ron Paul will do much better than people think. I think an Edwards second place finish is looking more and more likely. Obama's reliance on first-time caucus goers and Independents might result in his final numbers being lower than what he's polling in the latest polls. On the flip side, a boost from Biden supporters could be huge. It's going to be a very interesting night -- lots of undecideds still!
McCain will be 72 on inauguration day. The US has never in its history elected a president that old. ain't gonna happen
^Boy I screwed that post up. I think you can figure out what I meant. Anyway, here's a somewhat humorous article that tells you the spin before it happens: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22476967/
Yeah - I agree on McCain in Iowa. I suspect he will underperform due to the lack of organizational structure. But I don't think it will hurt him too much as long as Romney loses. If Romney beats Huckabee, that seriously hurts McCain in New Hampshire. But NH has a love affair with McCain, and if they have a reason to not vote for Romney, I think they will. But McCain undoubtably absolutely has to win NH. But Bush was the tax-cutter of the bunch and the more "true conservative". I think Bill Bradley also did really well in NH that year against Gore.
I did not expect that, I thought old Bill was going to play nice with Hill's and jump on the ticket with her later this year
Agreed. People aren't going to elect a one-term placeholder, and that is exactly what McCain would be. As a one-term lame duck president, the last thing McCain would be is an agent for change. From the beginning, both parties would dis him and start preparations for 2012. If I was a Dem, I would hope McCain is the GOP nominee. He is Bob Dole all over again. Barring unforeseen circumstances, I would predict an Obama or Edwards landslide over McCain. Hillary would probably beat him but it would be razor close.
