The one guy not mentioned who I think should overperform his draft slot is Marreese Speights. The only thing that would hold him back is the new glut at PF for the Sixers, with Brand and Thaddeus Young, who may not actually be able to transition to SF. But Speights played great in summer league, and really strikes me as a solid, solid PF prospect.
A_3P0 is one of the most knowledgable posters around here. This just shows how difficult it is to project the future of young players. Even professionals that get paid for this stuff misjudge players all the time.
I was as dead wrong as anybody on Beasley. I figured he'd be a 20 PPG scorer and difference-maker right off the bat instead of a softer version of Mo fricken Taylor. The only other player I was really wrong about was Eric Gordon -- thought he'd suck. Granted, it's hard to tell if he's just putting up numbers on a garbage team but I saw him play a few times. He looks decent.
OUCH!!! I laid it on the line in the OP and missed on some of these guys. Oden: Has shown flashes but injuries and fouls continue to slow his development. I'm wondering if he's recovered all of his athleticism yet (probably not). His progression since the start of the season has been good but the inconsistency is maddening. His psyche is too frail. Beasley: Good scorer. Coming off the bench is a great role for him. Clueless on defense, where he must get better. Love: I still doubt his long-term potential. I also now wonder whether he is a good compliment to Al Jefferson. Mayo: It's a special treat watching this guy shoot. Not sure how complete a player he will be, but Mayo is indeed a gifted scorer. Bayless: Basically flamed out. Still think he has potential but might not ever be starter material. He MUST learn how to play alongside superior players where he isn't the focus of the offense. Decent defender. Rose: I thought he would have a harder time making an impact as a rookie but it's great to be wrong. Watching Rose's first 2-3 games got me hooked on watching the Bulls again (for a while). He's a future superstar that will help carry the league. Brooke Lopez: Couldn't have been more wrong about a guy. Major props to him. His feel for NBA basketball is far beyond most rookies. I totally underestimated his skills and intelligence. Very curious to see how much better he gets. Rudy: He's made quite an impact the last few games but has been important the entire season. Needs to add strength and develop a floor game to reach the next level. Very savvy player and fun to watch. Donte Green: Dead on prediction. It's still too early to conclude anything but I just don't think he will amount to much.
I'm not surprised at all by Brook Lopez playing well. He's basically a smaller, but slightly quicker version of Yao. I saw him torch Texas in the Elite Eight last year. We had no one to stop him. That's when I knew he'd be a legit big man for years to come.
From the little I've seen from Greg Oden, he really has amazingly bad footwork. Almost as if his feet are too big for his body. Also wasn't he off the charts athletically in pre-draft workouts? It doesn't look like it translates to actual game situations.
Would Lopez be a better fit next to Al Jefferson? Even though Minnesota moved some less than desirable contracts/players in the Mayo -- Love trade, I think that they could have squeezed a bit more from the situation of having the #3 pick. The Knicks probably wouldn't have wanted to take on some of those Timberwolves contracts, but would they have done #6 + David Lee for #3 (Mayo) + contract filler? Another possibility would have been for Memphis and Minnesota to find a third team that wanted the #5 and would have been able to acquire Love or Lopez lower in the draft. Memphis would have still gotten Mayo, the Timberwolves would have still moved some unwanted players and would have gotten a little more <i>juice </i> from the third team that wanted the #5. Overall, McHale seemed too locked in on Love and didn't maximize the potential of the #3 pick.
Probably a combination of injuries, zero confidence and lack of conditioning. The dude sat out an entire year, then got injured as soon as he got back. I expect his hops and speed would take some time getting back. Nevertheless, I think its more or less settled now that KD was the real no. 1 pick in that draft.
Well I was completely wrong about Mayo - and I'll be generous to myself and say jury is out on Gallinari still! Right on Hill and right-ish on Thompson (he won't make the all-rookie team, but has been pretty good nonetheless!)
Bayless is solid and would've flourished anywhere other than Portland. There'll come a time that team's gonna have to sell low.
What does it say that he couldn't beat out Sergio Rodriguez? Bayless works incredibly hard and had some good moments, but sometimes when he was on the floor it was a disaster. I think he has ability but the key question is whether he can play a deferential role on a very good team. If not, the only way Bayless can succeed is to dominate the ball and be the best player on a sorry team because he isn't nearly good enough to lead a team anywhere. His ability to play next to bigger offensive weapons was the big question mark about him after summer league. I didn't really understand why there were so many doubts about him but it's clear now. Bayless has to learn ball-movement, gain some floor-vision, understand how NBA offenses work and live with being a 3rd or 4th option. I know he isn't a traditional PG, but he failed to play well off the ball! (unlike in summer league where he excelled next to Koponen). The huge issue that might account for most of his problems was his jumper completely disappeared and he had no confidence taking it. This probably affected every other part of his game and is why he would often be a turnover machine that killed the Blazers. He may be gone over the summer if the Blazers can upgrade at PG and bring Blake off the bench.
