Prediction of 2014 win total based on team stats and history

I think several teams in the West will finish with 57-62 wins. OKC, San Antonio, Houston, the Clippers, maybe Memphis. Golden State will likely disappoint. Lots of teams in the mix for the 7 and 8 seeds. The WC playoffs will be a crapshoot; any one of those top five teams could make it to the NBA Finals.

 

Maybe between 53 - 56 wins..
Top 3 seed in the West. Top 5 in both offense in defense. :grin:

 

61 wins barring no injuries to our key guys like Dwight, Lin, Parsons, Harden, Asik

 

Our win total should be alot higher in general, lots of teams will be purposely tanking for this year draft class. Lots of potential in 2014.

 

59 is around the mark, depend a bit on adjustment times and health obviously. and if anyone takes surprisingly large steps forward.

 

I do to. I think you finally see them drop off this next season.

 

I love these posts because I love stats but I've always wondered this with the various formula that calculated wins: Has anyone ever added up the predicted wins for each team and figured out if it's even POSSIBLE?

I mean, there's a finite number of wins each season if you view across the league as a whole. Just taking the numbers from NBA Couchside, of the teams that they'd projected already, 13 teams will take up roughly 689 wins (plus or minus rounding error).

82 games x 15 winners = 1,230 wins

Which means only 541 wins left for the 17 teams they'd still have left to project, at an average of about 32 wins per team (31.8). Now maybe it'd be a tank party for Wiggins and I don't know if it's just me, but it seems a little low.

How WOULD one compensate for the upper-bound on wins as a league though? I mean a simple measure would just be divide the total projected wins with total possible wins and then apply it to projected wins by team to get total possible projected wins, but I don't know if that accounts for the differences between the East and the West.

Or for that matter, the differences between divisions.

Do teams in the West systemically hit lower than what they're win totals project? Or was that just the Rockets?

 

we will win 60+ and everyone in the starting lineup will lead in all star voting at their position. we will be loved and hated, make room for all the bandwagoners. I welcome them as they will keep spreading the red gospel through every corner. no turning back now, championship or nothing!

 

I can't see any of the western teams having more than 58 wins, the West is loaded this year more so than in previous years. I see the Rockets having around 53 wins and being the fourth seed but close to the third.
1. San Antonio (58-24)
2. Clippers (55-27)
3 Thunder (53-29)
4. Rockets (53-29). OKC gets 3rd bc they have better in conference record.
5. Grizzles (50-32)
6. Warriors (48-34)
7. T-Wolves (44-38)
8. Lakers (42-40). There won't be a playoffs without the Lakers/Kobe

 

Based on last season, it looks like the pythagorean win estimate is inflated for rockets style of play.

 

The thing is I don't see any of those teams except GS as being any better than last year. A playoff series would be a toss up with the top 4 but we played pretty well against all of them during the regular season last year. To early to say with any certainty but I agree around 55+ is a decent benchmark for the time being.

 

All that matters is 16 playoff wins.

 

Most of the win totals mentioned in this thread are unlikely. There is a curve above 50 wins that dramatically increases the difficulty no matter how talented your team is. The law of unexpected events play ever increasing roles at that point. Plus it will take a bit to assimilate DH's role into the team.

 

Just catching up on this reply.

NBA didn't keep record on lineups and +/-'s until 2001-2002 season. Any RAPM values before that are to be taken lightly.

Dwight offensive +/- last season:
<PRE>Player Split MP ORtg
Kobe Bryant On Court 3013 110.4
Off Court 938 103.4
On Off 76% +7.0

Dwight Howard On Court 2721 108.1
Off Court 1230 110.2
On Off 69% -2.1

Metta World Peace On Court 2530 110.1
Off Court 1421 106.3
On Off 64% +3.8

Jodie Meeks On Court 1664 110.0
Off Court 2287 107.8
On Off 42% +2.2

Pau Gasol On Court 1655 109.0
Off Court 2296 108.5
On Off 42% +0.5</PRE>
Dwight was the only net negative player among top 5 players in MP. It's justifiable that he had a negative even if RAPM was split up..

However Dwight was always a net positive on offense when he was with Magic. This only reflected how poorly he was being utilized. Case in point. When Dwight posted up, he preferred the left side. His efficiency is a lot higher from that side. When Kobe started the offense, he preferred the right side. Instead of swing the ball to the other side, he's just dump the ball there. Whether Kobe had intentionally set him up for failure, we will never know.

Edt: Corrections on sides.

 

I see about 54 or 55 wins. We will be fighting Memphis and Clippers for 3-5 spot.

 

tss, 73 wins for sure this season :grin:

 

Wrong. The Nuggets, Lakers, Jazz and Suns are worse and I don't see how you can say that the Spurs and Thunder "got significantly better." I would also argue that the Warriors and Pelicans are not going do as well as many anticipate.

 

Let me sum it up even more.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/3414/omer-asik

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2384/dwight-howard