Predict

MadMax · Aug 23, 2012

713 said: ↑

6-10

titans win the division.

kubiak gets fired. front office lets schaub walk. wade phillips takes over HC duties.. superbowl next year. book it
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Do you honestly believe this or just having fun with the idea?

DonnyMost · Aug 23, 2012

MadMax said: ↑

Do you honestly believe this or just having fun with the idea?
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ubigred · Aug 23, 2012

6-0 vs 6-0

Packers vs Texans on Sunday Night Football would be a dream come true, win included.

Rocket River · Aug 23, 2012

I just don't think we will sweep the division
I think we should but . . . i know they will lay an egg on one or two.
we will still win the division though

10-6

Rocket River

TheRealist137 · Aug 23, 2012

what a difference a year makes. Last season we still hadn't done anything and posters would kill for a wild card spot much less a division.

Now this year we are the clear-cut favorites to win the division and there is no competition for us in the AFC South to boot.

nabeel623 · Aug 23, 2012

TheRealist137 said: ↑

what a difference a year makes. Last season we still hadn't done anything and posters would kill for a wild card spot much less a division.

Now this year we are the clear-cut favorites to win the division and there is no competition for us in the AFC South to boot.
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i think we were the clear cut favorites for the division last year as well. would have been a big disappointment imo if we didn't win the AFC South last year as well.

Kam · Aug 23, 2012

2-14.

signed

Kate81.

htownrox1 · Aug 23, 2012

Honestly? Probably 11-5. But I believe they have it in them to win 13, it all depends on injuries.

solid · Aug 23, 2012

Talent level = 12-4 Kubiak Factor = 10-6 Injuries, bad luck, and the Kubiak Factor = 6-10. I still say Wade bailed out Kubes last season, but Kubes almost blew it anyway when Wade was out. Real touch and go here, Kubes can blow several games, easily. With a "real" NFL caliber head coach, this team goes to the Super Bowl.

713 · Aug 24, 2012

solid said: ↑

Talent level = 12-4 Kubiak Factor = 10-6 Injuries, bad luck, and the Kubiak Factor = 6-10. I still say Wade bailed out Kubes last season, but Kubes almost blew it anyway when Wade was out. Real touch and go here, Kubes can blow several games, easily. With a "real" NFL caliber head coach, this team goes to the Super Bowl.
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Thought I was the only one who that thought Kubiak and Schaub deserves the boot...Hmmmm?

Relentless · Aug 24, 2012

713 said: ↑

Thought I was the only one who that thought Kubiak and Schaub deserves the boot...Hmmmm?
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You're a kid. No one cares what you think.

Pieman2005 · Aug 24, 2012

TheRealist137 said: ↑

what a difference a year makes. Last season we still hadn't done anything and posters would kill for a wild card spot much less a division.

Now this year we are the clear-cut favorites to win the division and there is no competition for us in the AFC South to boot.
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They (media) predicted us to win the division and dethrone the colts years ago..

IBTL · Aug 24, 2012

.500

8-8

thegary · Aug 24, 2012

solid said: ↑

Talent level = 12-4 Kubiak Factor = 10-6 Injuries, bad luck, and the Kubiak Factor = 6-10. I still say Wade bailed out Kubes last season, but Kubes almost blew it anyway when Wade was out. Real touch and go here, Kubes can blow several games, easily. With a "real" NFL caliber head coach, this team goes to the Super Bowl.
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i am in solid agreement with you.

Big MAK · Aug 24, 2012

I don't think our record is really important, since we'll win our division. However, what I think is important is how we play against the Ravens and Packers at home. If we come away with 1 or 2 wins there, the Superbowl is easily within our reach. If we lose both games, I really can't see us making it out of the AFC championship game. I think we can lose at NE and come out and beat them in the playoffs, even in NE, as long as we are able to beat Ravens and/or Packers at home.

Joe Joe · Aug 24, 2012

Rocket River said: ↑

I just don't think we will sweep the division
I think we should but . . . i know they will lay an egg on one or two.
we will still win the division though

10-6

Rocket River
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The best sign that the Texans are moving in the right direction!

dsnow23 · Aug 24, 2012

Week 1. Texans home dolphins. Texans win
Week 2. Texans at Jaguars. Texans win
Week 3. Texans at Broncos. Texans win
Week 4. Texans home Titans. Texans win
Week 5. Texans at Jets. Texans win
Week 6. Texans home Packers. Texans Lose
Week 7. Texans home Ravens. Texans Win
Week 8. Texans home Bills. Texans Lose
Week 9. Texans at Bears. Texans Win
Week 10. Texans home Jaguars. Texans win
Week 11. Texans at Lions. Texans lose
Week 12. Texans at Titans. Texans lose
Week 13. Texans at Patriots. Texans lose
Week 14. Texans home Colts. Texans win
Week 15. Texans home Vikings. Texans win
Week 16. Texans at Colts. Texans win

11-5 and a trip to the Superbowl. The patriots can't beat us twice. Texans lose in the superbowl to the packers, who can beat us twice.

MadMax · Aug 25, 2012

I had a dream I had to miss watching the Dolphins game for some reason...and when I finally caught the score we lost by 3. What a nightmare!

tallanvor · Aug 30, 2012

Good NYTimes preview and I couldn't figure where else to put it

Finally! For the first time in their 10-year existence, the Houston Texans enter a season looking to build on their playoff experience. Terrific coaching is to thank for that newfound experience (which is composed of a wild-card win over Cincinnati and a divisional round loss at Baltimore). In 2011, Gary Kubiak oversaw an offense that ranked 10th in scoring and 13th in yardage despite missing star running back Arian Foster in the early parts, superstar receiver Andre Johnson in the middle push and starting quarterback Matt Schaub down the stretch. As we’ll examine, it was Kubiak’s well-polished, well-taught, motion-based zone system that enabled Houston to overcome the barrage of injuries.

Defensively, after years of new coordinators and new schemes, the Texans finally hit on Wade Phillips and his one-gap-attacking 3-4. The scheme, which was aided by the acquisition of a premium cover corner, Johnathan Joseph, produced a defense that ranked fourth in scoring and second in yardage despite a season-ending injury in October to two-time Pro Bowl pass rusher Mario Williams.

With his club finally tasting genuine success, the owner Bob McNair rewarded Kubiak and General Manager Rick Smith with three- and four-year contract extensions this past spring. Validating McNair’s faith by winning a second A.F.C. South title shouldn’t be too hard for the two leaders. Yes, free agency wasn’t especially kind to the Texans, so their depth on both sides of the ball is, at the very least, less experienced than a year ago. But all of the genuinely significant contributors are back, and with the Colts rebuilding from the ground up, the Titans searching for an identity and the Jaguars hoping to win with an offense that can’t throw, Houston’s path back to the top of the division is about as wide open as they come.

McNair will soon have to make another decision about a contract for one of his leaders; Matt Schaub’s current deal expires after this season. Schaub, 31, might have already been signed to a long-term deal by now if not for the fact that injuries have cost him five or more games in three different seasons since he was dealt here in 2007. Because of his fragility, this is somewhat of a make-or-break season for him.

Schaub’s performance in 2012 will impact the Texans’ immediate future, but also their long-term construction plans. To understand why is to understand the Texans at their very core. Theirs is an interesting core; it challenges the most popular notion of today’s N.F.L.

OFFENSE

Look at the quarterbacks who reached the Super Bowl over the last six years: Eli Manning (twice), Tom Brady (twice), Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger (twice), Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner. These are great – not good, great – quarterbacks. Their teams were built around them.

The Texans are not built around Matt Schaub. They’re quarterbacked by Schaub, but he doesn’t have the type of tools you build around. Schaub is the consummate “good” quarterback. He’s accurate, smart and moderately athletic. But he doesn’t have a cannon arm (not close) or an innate playmaking prowess when things break down. The longer Schaub holds the ball in the pocket, the less effective he becomes. That’s always a telltale sign of a limited quarterback.

This dose of blunt truth always prompts Texan fans to bring up Schaub’s stats: 4,770 yards and 98.6 passer rating in 2009; 4,370 yards and 92.0 rating in 2010; a rating of 96.8 in 2011. Impressive numbers. But they’re proof that Schaub is a good fit in Gary Kubiak’s system.

Kubiak’s system does not demand a lot of in terms of sheer physical talent. It’s a system that naturally allows the quarterback to be managed. (This is why the Texans were able to survive when fifth-round rookie T.J. Yates took over for the final month and a half last year.) It’s also a system that requires patient decision-making and consistent accuracy, which is why Schaub excels in it.

What the Texans must decide after this season is whether their system is strong enough to ultimately carry them to a Super Bowl. If they feel that it is and they believe Schaub can stay healthy, they’ll re-sign him. If there’s an inkling of doubt, they could find themselves searching for a franchise quarterback.

If any system is good enough to disprove the theory that you need a superstar quarterback to reach the Super Bowl, it’s Kubiak’s. Unlike Jim Harbaugh, who nearly led the 49ers and their “system quarterback” Alex Smith to the Super Bowl last season, Kubiak isn’t trying to go against the grain by orchestrating an old-fashioned power run offense. His scheme is perfectly designed for the increasingly finesse nature of today’s N.F.L.

Yet, it’s a scheme built around the run. Not just the run game itself, but also the threat of the run. Houston’s passing attack stems largely from run elements like play-action, bootlegs and rollouts. This is why so much of the Texans’ passing game takes place out of base personnel (whether it’s two backs and a tight end, two tight ends and a back or an H-back, running back and tight end). The Texans do a marvelous job using presnap motion and tight formation wrinkles to disguise their run/pass intentions and create favorable one-on-one matchups (in blocking and receiving) for fullbacks, H-backs and tight ends.

This is why losing fullback Lawrence Vickers and No. 2 tight end Joel Dreessen hurt a little more than normal. Vickers’s replacement will be former Niner Moran Norris, though most of Vickers’s snaps will wind up going to H-back James Casey. Casey has been featured more and more as a motion-oriented backfield lead-blocker since joining this team as a fifth-round pick in 2009. When aligned in the backfield, his route running and downfield receiving prowess create unusual matchup problems for defenses – something Kubiak is well aware of. As far as replacing Dreessen, the hope is that third-year pro Garrett Graham can perform well enough that the Texans won’t feel obligated to use Casey in the No. 2 tight end hole.

To fill Dreessen’s shoes, Graham must be a strong one-on-one blocker on the edges and smooth intermediate route runner between the numbers. The blocking aspects are more important since lithe, soft-handed seventh-year veteran Owen Daniels will be the primary receiving weapon inside.

Important as it is for the fullbacks and tight ends to win their favorable matchups as blockers, it’s the continuity of the offensive line that makes Houston’s system really work. Coached by offensive coordinator Rick Dennison and line coach John Benton, this is an extremely well-schooled, fundamentally sound group. Five blockers firing off the ball with the same synchronized mechanics makes it impossible for defenders to tell whether the Texans are running one of their stretch handoffs or executing a play-action rollout. These two seconds of ambiguity are the secret ingredient to this prolific offense.

Given the emphasis on offensive line continuity, it’s understandable that fans might be concerned about the loss of starting right tackle Eric Winston and starting right guard Mike Brisiel. Both were dependable veterans. But both were also dismissed willingly, as Rick Smith released Winston and chose not to re-sign Brisiel. This is an indication that Dennison and Benton believe they can coach up and integrate in-house replacements Derek Newton (tackle) and Antoine Caldwell (guard). Caldwell has been with the organization since 2009, so his transition should be relatively seamless. If it’s not, he may get pushed by backup tackle Rashad Butler, who has also been with the team since ’09. Butler was supposed to assume the starting right tackle position but couldn’t fend off Newton, an ascending seventh-round pick from a year ago.

To hedge his bets on the right side and look toward the future, Smith spent a third-round pick on Miami’s Brandon Brooks and a fourth-rounder on Georgia’s Ben Jones. Brooks is a guard who, at 350 or so pounds, has enough size to perhaps one day become a right tackle. At this point, though, he’s sluggish and in need of mechanical refining. Jones was a center in college and is projected to play that spot here, though most centers, especially in a zone scheme, can easily pick up the guard position.

Jones won’t sniff the starting center job anytime soon, as dependable veteran Chris Myers signed a four-year, $25 million contract in 2011. Myers doesn’t have the strength to win in a phone booth, but he’s a master of leverage and angles. At left guard is Wade Smith, a versatile run-blocker and, for the most part, a reliable enough pass-protector. At left tackle is Duane Brown, who recently earned a six-year, $53.4 million contract for his mobility in the run game and consistency in the pass game.

The moving pockets and run fakes help Houston’s passing attack not just by giving the so-so-armed Schaub more room and time to throw, but by naturally extending the duration of each play – which extends the amount of time Texans receivers have to run their routes. This enables the Texans to execute many of their shrewd route combinations out of base personnel.

Of course, route combinations are always going to look good with Andre Johnson outside. When healthy, the 10th-year veteran is arguably the best all-around receiver in football. Johnson’s greatness allows Houston to get away with having just a basic possession receiver like Kevin Walter in the No. 2 spot. Because tight end Owen Daniels operates so fluidly inside, the Texans don’t have a dire need for a bona fide slot receiver. That doesn’t mean it wasn’t worth drafting one in the fourth round – which Smith did, taking Michigan State’s Keshawn Martin. Martin will play ahead of third-round rookie DeVier Posey, who was suspended for most of his final season at Ohio State and is seen as more of a developmental project.

Last but not least, the running backs. It’s easy to assume that undrafted fourth-year pro Arian Foster is just another product of a zone-blocking system. Indeed, Foster’s one-cut downhill style and well-honed vision and patience are a perfect fit in this scheme. But Foster would be a perfect fit in any scheme. He plays with a natural burst and has tremendous power in his supple change-of-direction. He’s also very good in the passing game – and not just out of the backfield, but detached from the formation, where he can catch bubble screens or short hitches and slants.

Foster’s backup, Ben Tate, is also a gem. The 2010 second-round pick rushed for 942 yards on just 175 carries last season, showing power inside and just enough speed to keep defenses mindful of the stretch play. Tate isn’t a natural third-down type back, though, which is why ex-Seahawk Justin Forsett was signed as insurance in case Foster is for some reason unavailable.

DEFENSE

People see three Texans lining up with a hand in the dirt and assume that Wade Phillips is running a 3-4. He’s not. Phillips’s scheme is really a 5-2. The outside linebackers align standing up, but they crowd the line of scrimmage and have virtually the same gap responsibilities as defensive ends would have in a 4-3.

Many 4-3 schemes are centered on one-gap concepts. So is Phillips’s scheme. He plays an under front with his defensive line, which means his weakside defensive end – usually Antonio Smith – is lined up between the guard and the tackle (i.e. the three technique, where the most explosive defensive tackle lines up in a 4-3). Lining up to the outside of Smith is linebacker Connor Barwin who, in this position, draws backside run containment responsibilities and faces one-on-one blocking as a pass rusher. Barwin plays the same role that Phillips had DeMarcus Ware play in Dallas.

Though Barwin posted a commendable 11.5 sacks last season and was a constant nuisance in the backfield, the Texans may hope to one day turn his premium role over to Whitney Mercilus, whom Smith used a first-round pick to acquire. Having spent his Illinois career playing defensive end, Mercilus won’t be expected to carry a heavy load as a backup outside linebacker in 2012. Most guys in his position would at least be cast as a pass-rushing specialist out of the gate. However, on the other side of Barwin, the Texans already have another high-octane rusher in last year’s second-round pick, Brooks Reed.

Effective as Reed is at chasing the quarterback, his greatest strength is setting the edge and filling against the run. Offenses may soon find it hopeless running to his side of the field given that he lines up behind defensive end J.J. Watt. The 11th overall pick of a year ago has already been projected as a future Hall of Famer by his smitten defensive coordinator. Watt’s uncannily long arms and natural all-around strength create nightmarish congestion in the trenches. Having played tight end at Central Michigan before transferring to Wisconsin, he also has preternatural nimbleness for his build.

Most important about Watt and Reed – as well as Smith and Barwin – is that they play with near-reckless tempo and energy on every down. That’s really the most defining characteristic of Phillips’s defense. Yes, Phillips does a great job with presnap disguises and overload blitz concepts. But what makes those concepts great is that the 5-2 alignment creates additional spacing that allows the front seven to play fast. While most defenders pin their ears back on third-and-long, Texans defenders play in attack mode full-time. Over the course of a game, this can make an offense become very reactive.

Young linebackers can play every down with their ears pinned back and not run out of gas, but most defensive linemen can’t. Stationed between Watt and Smith is Shaun Cody, who, like Jay Ratliff in Dallas, plays his nose tackle position more like an under-tackle. Cody is well-cut for a 300-plus pounder, but he still has to share snaps with Earl Mitchell, a third-year pro who offers top lateral agility in traffic. Alongside Mitchell is usually backup end Tim Jamison, a surprisingly explosive undrafted fourth-year man who fits this scheme by consistently creating big-play opportunities for others through penetration. The Texans had another guy like this last season in Tim Bulman, but he was somewhat of a fringe player and left in free agency. The expectation is that fourth-round rookie Jared Crick can be a big upgrade and even push Jamison for playing time.

We’ve saved the best for last in the front seven by finishing with inside linebacker Brian Cushing. The fourth-year pro is sensational in a system that has him constantly playing downhill. He is ravenous against the run and often the key component of Phillips’s blitzes, which are designed to create sack opportunities for specific players depending on the situation. Cushing has the speed to be the primary pass rusher, and he has the power at the point of contact to be the setup man who eats blocks. This combination makes it difficult for offensive linemen to diagnose Houston’s pass-rushing designs before the snap.

Starting next to Cushing will most likely be Bradie James. The 31-year-old showed signs of decline in Dallas last season, but because the Texans only use one linebacker in virtually all of their passing down sub-packages, they don’t need a dynamic athlete in the second inside spot. They just need a stalwart interior run-stopper who understands his gaps. If James can’t handle things physically, the Texans will have to turn to either Mister Alexander (a diminutive undrafted second-year player who at least plays with decent tempo) or Tim Dobbins (a career-long backup who plays with some pop but has limited range). Ideally, Darryl Sharpton would be the next man up, but he’s had trouble recovering from a 2011 torn quad.

Phillips uses just one linebacker in his sub-packages because he has a rich rotation of versatile safeties who are good enough tacklers to be counted on for making open-field stops at the second level. Starter Glover Quin, with his ability to play slot corner or drop back deep near the numbers, is the best of the bunch. The retail version of Quin is Troy Nolan, who can operate at deep safety or dime linebacker. Nolan and the more finesse Quintin Demps generally come off the bench behind rangy but historically hit-or-miss free safety Danieal Manning.

Manning has played cornerback at times in his career, but the Texans probably have enough depth at the position to keep him in what’s clearly his more comfortable centerfield spot. Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson are the starting corners. Joseph is a first-class cover artist who shadows the opposing team’s No. 1 receiver week in and week out. He’s not quite of shutdown caliber (currently, only Darrelle Revis truly is), but Phillips’s system wouldn’t work without him reliably handling huge assignments. As for Jackson, he’s had an up-and-down career since being taken in the first round three years ago, but he seemed to get more comfortable as last season wore on.

Brandon Harris was drafted last year presumably to one day unseat Jackson, but the second-rounder has looked slow thus far and may land on the depth chart behind fellow 2011 classman Roc Carmichael (a fourth-rounder who spent 2011 on I.R.). That would mean a lot of “inactive” Sundays for him, as ahead of Carmichael is slot corner Brice McCain and ex-Cowboys safety/corner Alan Ball.

SPECIAL TEAMS

With punter Brett Hartmann out for the first three games as part of his late 2011 performance-enhancing drug suspension, the Texans signed veteran Donnie Jones. They’ve also signed a veteran kicker, Shayne Graham, who won the job after fifth-round rookie Randy Bullock landed on I.R. with a torn groin muscle. Tiny but electrifying return ace Trindon Holliday hasn’t picked up the receiver position well enough to garner a roster spot either of the last two years. He’s getting one more chance in 2012; his prospects seemingly dimmed with the signing of running back Justin Forsett and the fourth-round selection of wideout/return man Keshawn Martin, though Holliday has been explosive in the preseason.

BOTTOM LINE

The defense is dynamic enough for Houston to make a Super Bowl run with a system-based quarterback, though that quarterback and the handful of stars on both sides of the ball must find a way to stay healthy for a change. A safer, more realistic projection for this club is another divisional round playoff appearance.

Predicted Finish: 1st AFC South
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emjohn · Aug 30, 2012

HollaIFyaHEMI said: ↑

I agree with what you have to say about our defense. The problem is that you are overlooking the fact that the packers and ESPECIALLY the patriots don't have a chance in hell at stopping our offense. We will run right over NE, I see our D putting up a better fight than theirs even in that cold weather.
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It's been a little while since our offense was an unstoppable force. I want to see them earn that back before getting too drunk on preseason koolaid. The right side of the line has fallen short of replacing Winston/Brisiel, and the WR corps needs a little more time to gel.

I'm not sure what to make of the Pack defense right now, but I wouldn't assume the Patriots are going to be a joke on D again. They invested big time on defense in the draft and came away with at least 2-3 good immediate contributors. With the way their double TE West Coast attack has become the most difficult scheme to stop in the league, I'm not anticipating a December Texans romp in Foxboro.

TheRealist137 said: ↑

what a difference a year makes. Last season we still hadn't done anything and posters would kill for a wild card spot much less a division.
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This time last year, the overwhelming majority were saying we were a mortal lock for the division. At the same time, I did get all but death threats for starting a division crown watch and risking a jinx.

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