final prediction, I flipped NJ to blue http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bhik
If polls are systematically biased against Obama, because they don't pick up voter registrations (which are not per-determined if the survey knows what it is doing, for Christ's sake) from mobile users, or because for some reason, no one figures that the polls might be biased against the winner, even if we have ample historical evidence this might be the case. http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bhlF Seeing as how some people have started turning this into the electoral contest of the United States of Narnia, I'll also throw in a Latino voting surge, and posit that this is the one freak year where a la 2008, registered voters en masse start acting like old white "likely" voters. http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bhlZ ET VOILA.
More like just trolling. I still feel that Romney has a good shot at winning but it's going to be close it seems to me though the closer we get to the election the more unrealistic the Romney supporters are getting, from Clutchfans to Dick Morris. I think this has a lot to do with masking their own uncertainties and with just trying to get a rise out of the other side.
I agree that both the total vote and the electoral college vote will be close. Last month, I stopped canvassing neighbors because I believe Texas will go into the Romney column. Therefore, I have been spending most of my time canvassing all my former client and carrier contacts across the country with a short questionnaire regarding their presidential candidate leanings. If they sent me a pro-Romney response, I send them a "right on" message. If they send me a pro-Obama response, I sent them a "think about it" response pointing out Obama's dreadful record on economic and foreign affairs issues. In addition, I urged them to see the "2016" video to help acquaint them with Obama's rationale for trying to ruin America and Americans.
The polls show him within the margin of error in many of them so he certainly has a shot in Ohio. Another question is how many votes has Obama banked in early voting versus how big of an edge Romney might have on the 6th. I think PA is pretty solidly going for Obama but I think Romney is likely going to get VA, FL and CO is going to be very close. If he wins those and Ohio he will win.
I think this is going to be landslide territory with most of the tossups breaking towards Obama. Romney will take North Carolina, but I have the rest for Obama, who wins 332-206. http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=biOk I could see the overall popular being close, especially if turnout is really low in the Northeast due to Sandy, but I don't think Romney can pull out the popular win while losing the electoral vote. I see Obama winning by about 2 points.
I think that is certainly possible and much more likely than a Romney landslide. Unless you are essentially running on faith, as some here, and discount almost all of the polls the math just doesn't work for a Romney landslide. A narrow electoral win for Romney is still possible.
As I said running on faith. As much as you might choose to ignore polls the polling takes into account the likely electoral composition. Even the most favorable for Romney still doesn't show a Romney landslide.
Serious question: has this ever been a problem in the recent past? Have a majority of the polls been as off as you claim that they are? Do current pollsters not know how to make an accurate poll?
Pollsters -- no matter how "respected" they are -- skew the results toward whomever is paying them. It can be done by the way questions are asked/phrased, by the number and demographics of the people polled, etc. That's why Romney's polls show he is the favorite and why Obama's polls show he is the favorite. There is only one poll that counts.
but historically, the adjusted and weighted avg of all these polls matches who actually wins the state on election day
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/7wC42HgLA4k" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
The only adjusted and weighted poll in which I am interested is the one that comes out tomorrow -- barring "hanging chads" -- showing how the electoral college should vote.
both campaigns base their strategy on the adjusted and weighted polls. know why romney is pouring money on PA? its because one local polling firm show is a tie and tomorrows result should be pretty close to RCP, Princeton, and 538
