Scenario#1 Pennsylvania. that decides the race. I think Romney wins Florida, Nevada votes republican. The auto belt (ohio, michigan, wisconsin) go to Obama. Still not sure about Pennsylvania. But whomever wins it- wins it all. Scenario #2
The only way Romney wins PA is if the GOP can stop a million people in the state from possibly voting. oh...wait...
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=pJQ Everyone will be too worried about the end of the world approaching to vote.
Not too hard to figure out. The darker blue a state is colored, the more likely it is to go to Obama. The darker red a state is colored, the more likely it is to go to Romney. The lighter a state is, the more of a toss up it is. Right now, Obama has a 68% chance of winning the Electoral College.
They might be able to. If this happens Dems need to contest the election in the streets to put an end to voter suppression tactics. It would be interesting to see. I predict Obama would go quietly and do the whole $25,000 a speech and book deal things. After a respectable period he might join the boards of Goldman and other Wall Street firms. At best tour with Bono. No Jimmy Carter, he.
to make this fun, whoever matches or the closest to the actual results will be repped by everyone who posted their own prediction
The election is not tomorrow, many things can change.... but right now, the map shows how hard it is for Romney, he has to wrap up all the states that are leaning his direction AND has to take the toss up states as well.....
Mine, a little goofy with Maine, giving Florida, Virginia and North Carolina back to Romney. http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=twA
That's not what I am asking about. I am asking about Carl's statement. You know, the part I quoted. Not that hard to figure out what I was referring to.
Still not that hard to figure out. Nate Silver does do a great job, just as he did with the 2008 election. If you want to look at projections based polling (factoring how accurate specific pollsters tend to be), historical models, and other factors, his blog is the first place you'd go. He's the Billy Bean/Daryl Morey of election forecasting. Actually, before he moved into political forecasting, he was a statistician and sabermetrician and wrote for Baseball Prospectus. In 2008, he correctly predicted 49 of 50 states as well as every Senate race. In 2010, he correctly predicted 34 of the 37 Senate races (narrowly missing on one with another one being the write in win of Murkowski in Alaska). He predicted a net gain of +7 for the Republicans and the result was actually +6. Of the 37 Governorships up for grabs in 2010, he correctly predicted 36 of them. Nothing's going to be a perfect forecast, but Nate Silver is pretty damned accurate. If you want to know what the likelihood of a particular outcome is, his is a pretty good source to look to. If he's not completely right, he's not going to be far off. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ Speaking of polling, Rasmussen (which leans right) has Obama winning Missouri by 1 in their latest poll. That's kind of a shocker, Rasmussen's last poll had Romney up 6. You can understand McCaskill benefiting from the Akin fiasco, but you wouldn't necessarily think it would help Obama as well.
Rasmussen and Pew had the most accurate predictions/polls from the 2008 election. The NYT, who Silver works for, was 19th. It also doesn't explain what Carl meant. He didn't say 'accurate' so I think you are misinterpreting him.
Silver didn't work for the NYT in 2008. He was independent. They picked him up and gave him wider exposure afterwards.
you quoted this: "Here's Nate Silver's map, which is as educated a prediction as there is out there" when someone says does not understand that statement, it automatically means he cannot understand the map it self which is the main subject of the statement
I didn't know that. None the less he wasn't as exact as Pew and Rasmussen were. Ras and PEw predicted every state for the presidential election. Yes i did realize. You realize both predict outcomes of elections?
