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Predict 5 New Teams To Make Play-offs

Discussion in 'Football: NFL, College, High School' started by Marteen, May 16, 2012.

  1. Marteen

    Marteen Member

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    Apparently, there is this stat that 5 new teams make the play-offs every season for the past few seasons or more? Very interesting if that continues. Who do you think it will be?


    Here's mine:

    Buffalo Bills- Adding Mario Williams, and you have a great pass rush with a healthy Marcell Dareus plus they added Mark Anderson. Fitzpatrick won't throw 20+ interceptions again, and they get Fred Jackson back. Potentially could win the division since Super Bowl losers usually don't fare well, and I don't see the Jets being that much better.


    Philadelphia Eagles- This team is too talented to not put it together. Wild card, perhaps.

    Dallas Cowboys- Adding Morris Claiborne is just what the doctor ordered. Their defense should improve. I think they could win the division, because they can stop you or outscore you or even both.


    Chicago Bears- They added a great WR from the Dolphins, and Jay Cutler was doing really well before he went down.

    New York Jets- I think they bounce back to grab a Wild Card spot. Otherwise, Rex is done.



    Teams that will fall off play-off picture:


    New England Patriots- History is not on their side regarding teams that come off losing the Super Bowl.

    New York Giants- Have one of the toughest schedules, and history is not on their side either.

    New Orleans Saints- Losing those players and coaches is going to distract this team big time. Not to mention, they have a Falcons team on their tail that added Asante Samuel.

    Baltimore Ravens- If Terrell Suggs is out for the season, it's gonna hurt their pass rush, plus you add another year to an already aging defense with Lewis and Reed.

    Surprise team- I think the Detroit Lions's defense is too weak to maintain pace with Bears, who have a solid defense, and the Packers, who have a better QB and defense.



    Share yours! This is just for fun, I know I'm not Nostradamus here.
     
  2. david_rocket

    david_rocket Member

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    Here is my prediction:

    Teams In:

    1. Eagles
    2. Chargers
    3. Cowboys
    4. Bears
    5. Titans or Buccaners

    I dont see the Patriots out, the last two super bowl losers have made the playoffs (Steelers lost in 2011 and were in 2012 playoffs, Colts lost in 2010, and were in 2011 playoffs).
     
  3. Obito

    Obito Contributing Member

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    Lol bills....

    In order from most likely - less likely to make the playoffs.

    1. Chargers
    2. Eagles
    3. Bears
    4. Cowboys
    5. Jets
     
  4. 713

    713 Member

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    New Teams
    1. Eagles
    2. Chargers
    3. Jets
    4. Bears
    5. Cowboys

    Teams that will fall off play-off picture:
    1. Broncos
    2. Giants
    3. 49ers
    4. Falcons
    5. Steelers
     
  5. Lil Pun

    Lil Pun Contributing Member

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    Can somebody post: Why Eagles will win the NFC East

    from ESPN Insider? :)
     
  6. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    Prior to the 2011 NFL season, the Philadelphia Eagles' "Dream Team" was considered by most to be the NFC East favorites. However, as I detailed last August, there was a multitude of reasons the New York Giants should have held that preseason honor.

    The Giants are the defending Super Bowl champions, and as such are probably considered by most to be the favorites in the NFC East. But the truth of the matter is the Eagles should be favored to win the division.

    Let's look at 10 reasons why:

    A top-flight running game

    Andy Reid is a pass-first coach, but one of the secrets to the success of his offense is an underrated rushing attack. According to pro-football-reference.com, Reid's Eagles have ranked among the top 10 teams in the league in rushing yards per attempt in nine of his 13 years in Philadelphia.

    This current team could give Reid the strongest rushing attack of his tenure. The Eagles ranked third in the league in yards per carry last year, were eighth in the good blocking rate (GBR) metric (a stat that gauges how often a team's blockers gave the ball carrier good blocking) and have a healthy LeSean McCoy, who is possibly the best under-25 cornerstone player in the NFL. Philadelphia will have to deal with the loss of left tackle Jason Peters (they signed Demetress Bell), but this still should be one of the most productive rushing attacks in the NFL.

    Luck should be on Michael Vick's side

    The aforementioned article touting the Giants as 2011 NFC East favorites detailed how Vick was due for a drop-off, in part because he was one of the most fortunate passers in the league in 2010.

    This fall, the tables are completely turned. Vick still had a penchant for risk-taking last season (3.4 percent bad decision rate (BDR), ranked 26th), but he also had a lot of unlucky breaks, as 48.3 percent of the possible interception chances he had were turned into picks by the opposing team. If Vick gets back to a standard level of fortune (which is roughly 40 percent of potential picks turning into interceptions) and improves his BDR by a slight amount, he could remove at least three to five turnovers from his 2011 statistical résumé.

    Jeremy Maclin is primed for a breakout season

    As I explained in my 2012 TFS Fantasy Football Draft Guide, there were four wide receivers who posted an 8.0 YPA or higher on at least 40 short passes and a vertical YPA (VYPA) of 10.0 or higher last year: Julio Jones, Victor Cruz, Mike Wallace and Maclin. (Note: Vertical passes are aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield.) That's rare company to be in, and Maclin posted those numbers after an offseason that saw him battle an ailment at one point thought to be lymphoma, a form of cancer.

    Maclin should be healthy to start the season, plus he is heading into a contract year.

    DeSean Jackson should be free of distractions

    Jackson's contract situation last year occurred in part because there seemed to be disagreement among Philadelphia's decision-makers as to whether he should be signed to a long-term deal.

    Jackson let that situation get to him, and he didn't play to his talent level, but he still posted a 12.9 VYPA last year -- tied for 11th out of the 43 wideouts who posted at least 40 vertical targets. With his contract situation now in order, Jackson can devote his concentration on developing into an even more dangerous downfield threat.

    Brent Celek is an underrated tight end

    Celek ranked tied for 10th among tight ends in targets last year (93) and was just outside of the top 10 in vertical targets (33, ranked 11th) and VYPA (12.4, 12th). That he was able to do this in a season where he battled injuries shows that Celek has the potential to be a top 10 -- and possibly a top five -- tight end if he stays healthy.

    Although the offense could have been stronger last season, the real issue was the Eagles' defense. However, that unit has been strengthened immensely this offseason through free agency and the draft:

    A great pass rush

    The Eagles racked up 50 sacks last year, a total that ranked tied for best in the league … and that was before the team added talented defensive tackle Fletcher Cox and defensive end Vinny Curry (who tallied 23 sacks his last two seasons at Marshall) in the 2012 NFL draft. They also could benefit from the possible development of Brandon Graham (a first-round pick in 2010 who had zero sacks last year).

    An ability to force opposing passers into a lot of mistakes

    Philadelphia has the rare combination of a strong pass rush and a high forced BDR (a metric that gauges how often a team forces opposing quarterbacks into mental errors that lead to turnover opportunities). The Eagles were one of only five teams to rack up at least 40 sacks and post a forced BDR of 3.0 percent or higher.

    Superb vertical and stretch vertical coverage … that will be improved

    The Eagles didn't get their pass rush or create a lot of opponent mistakes by sacrificing downfield coverage, either, as Philadelphia had top-five rankings in VYPA (10.0, tied for fifth-best) and stretch vertical YPA (10.3, fourth-best). (Note: stretch verticals are aerials thrown 20 or more yards downfield.) Those coverage numbers were posted despite subpar seasons from Nnamdi Asomugha (8.2 YPA in 2011) and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (7.3 YPA).

    These two have a history of posting better YPA totals, and in Asomugha's case, some of his coverage woes occurred because early in the season, the Eagles were still trying to figure out how best to integrate his skills into their defensive scheme. After they shifted away from using him in zone coverage, he played much better.

    The addition of fourth-round draft pick Brandon Boykin (who made my list of top projected value draft picks) should also add quality depth to the secondary.

    Their run defense will be stronger

    Philadelphia's run defenders did make their share of impactful plays, as the Eagles ranked eighth in the league in the GBR.

    The problem is that opposing rushers gained 8.7 yards per attempt on plays where they did get good blocking (a metric known as GBYPA), a total that ranked 28th.

    The good news here is that Philadelphia's defenders got a lot better in this area as last year progressed, as their GBYPA allowed went from 9.7 in the first eight games of the season to 7.8 in the last eight. Add in the tackling abilities of two-time Pro Bowl linebacker DeMeco Ryans, and this weakness will be decreased this season.

    Improved special teams

    The Eagles ranked 18th in the Football Outsiders 2011 special teams rankings, but there are multiple signs showing this group could be trending upward. Kicker Alex Henery missed only three field goals last season and made every kick he attempted after Week 4. Fifteen of punter Chas Henry's 19 punts inside the 20 occurred in the last eight weeks of the season. Boykin also could help in this area, as he returned one punt and four kickoffs for touchdowns during his college career.

    Having this many elements potentially fall into place isn't a guaranteed path to the playoffs, especially in this tough division that got even tougher with a slew of personnel upgrades (Washington adding Robert Griffin III, Dallas shoring up its secondary with Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne and the Giants bringing back a bunch of talented players who were out due to injury).

    Even with that in mind, it's still clear that the Eagles should be much improved this season, are the favorite to win the NFC East and should make a serious run at a berth in Super Bowl XLVII.
     
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  7. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost not wrong
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    I had an idea for a similar thread earlier.

    Name 3 teams with 10 or more wins last year that will have 7 or fewer wins this year.

    Name 3 teams with 7 or fewer wins last year that will have 10 or more wins this year.

    Order them from most confident to least confident.

    10 and over (bounce back teams)
    Rams
    Panthers
    Bills

    7 and under (fall back teams)
    Saints
    Falcons
    49ers

    As for the OP, I don't think we're going to have 5 new playoff teams.

    But if I had to pick...

    Bears
    Chargers
    Eagles
    Panthers
    Cardinals

    Ordered from most confident to least confident :)
     
    #7 DonnyMost, Jul 13, 2012
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2012

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