Taiwan must not fall! Where else can you find a bunch of suckers forking over US$20B+ for Vietnam-era military equipment?? The significance of the new law is that now China can "legally" impose death sentence on DDP leaders post-invasion as "insurgents" and not feel the slightest international pressure to hand them over to third-party countries as befitting of ousted world leaders. The Taiwan president is smart enough to know the difference between a life of luxury in Hawaii as an ousted leader and getting shot in head as an insurgent, so he's now furiously back-peddling on his "Republic of Taiwan" rhetoric.
A couple of thoughts on the reasons that Taiwan is so important to the PRC. The first arguement is that is has always been Chinese, but this is simply not true. There is a long document on the subject here, but in essence, Taiwan was part of China from 1662-1683 and again from 1887-1895 when the Treaty of Shimonoseki sceded Taiwan from the Manchu to the Japanese in for all time. In the periods between 1683 & 1887 the island was considered much like the US considered the areas of the wild west that were not afforded official teritorial status. The native population was mostly polynesian-like until the KMT moved in. On purely historical grounds, China probably has a stronger historical claims to bits and pieces of Vietnam and Thailand where they had strong Han immigrant populations for long periods. That having been said, I think that the perfect way for an American to understand Taiwan is to think of Cuba. There are big mountains in the Eastern half of the island on which to place listening postsm and the west is nice & flat, perfect for staging an invasion. In that respect, Taiwan is a state in conflict with China politically, and in good position to do bad things to China. I also developed a good appreciation for the subtlity of Chinese thought watching the show on Nixon's visit to China. The Chinese guy (not the Chairman, I forget who) set up the meeting with Nixon so that Nixon would be photographed walking towards this guy extending his hand, while he stood his ground in charge. Chinese Taiwan policy, therefore, may also represent a more subtle version of the typical overreactionary Russian decision to shoot the Tzar and his entire family, thus eliminating any possible hope for "going back to old Russia". As long as Taiwan exists, people remember The Guangxi Clique, Yen Hsi-shan's independant Shansi state, the Muslim Chinese state of Xibei San Ma, and so on and so forth. Encorporating Taiwan solidifies China as the PRC with no going back. I detected a similar tone in the public speeches when China regained control of Macau & Hong Kong. The tone of the speeches when reincorporating these areas centered around an erasure of Chinese shame at having lost them in the first place. By regaining control, the bad old days never happened.
BTW, China has been conducting mock missle attacks and invasions of Taiwan regularly over the last 20 years. IMHO, this is no more than an attempt to ensure the "one China, two nations" interpretation recently floated that were compared to the European Union by the Taiwanese don't come to pass. Furthermore, yesterday was the anual vitrolic Chinese response to the State Department's human rights report, so tensions here are at their anual high.
An interesting analysis Ottoman but if it comes to blows between the PRC and Taiwan you better start packing your bags. I predict that the US would figure some way to backslide on defending Taiwan. They would probably pull an Aristide on Chen or whoever was in office in Tapei. Fortunately though I don't expect the PRC to start invading Taiwan anytime soon there's just too much at stake on both sides, not to mention the rest of Asia and the World economy, for a war.
I don't understand why the PRC aren't going along with this because its not that much different than what they've been offering Taiwan. When I was in Hong Kong last month I still needed to get a visa to go to Shenzen, had to change money and the cars were driving on the other side of the road. Hong Kong still has its own Olympic team, flag, money and a fair amount of autonomy in regards to economic policy.
China won't invade Taiwan anytime soon unless Taiwan did some real stupid things. The current unification proposal of PRC is that Taiwan can keep almost everything including their army, election system, etc., as long as they admit to be a special region of China. The name of the Nation, national flag and anthem can all be negotiated. In other words, Taiwan would enjoy almost complete freedom under the new China. I agree Ottomaton's analysis blows. Taiwan is so different from Thailand and Vietnam, who might have a lot of Chinese immigrants but not many can claim to be Han nationality. 91% of Mainland Chinese belong to the Han nation, and that percentage is even higher in Taiwan. Most of Taiwan population are either descendents of the Nationalists or immigrants from Fujian province.
There still are many Taiwanese descended from the original aboriginal Taiwanese along with a majority descended from people who were there prior to 1949. These people make up the bulk of DPP support and have chafed under KMT rule. I agree there are historical reasons while Taiwan is more China than Thailand or Vietnam but I would be careful about saying ethnicity is the main reason. After all Singapore is 70% Chinese and Penang is 80% and the Chinese there are overwhelmingly Han descended from Fujian province.
When you quote a source, always check if it is unbiased and reliable. And taiwandc.org is hardly an unbiased and reliable source. To start, China started its colonization of Taiwan in the Three Kingdoms period, putting it at least a thousand years before Polynesians were even in the region, with well documented further colonization if further dynasties. So I find it hilarious somebody would actually claim it to be Polynesian. In fact, over 95% of the population are Chinese, decended from the province of Fujian, and the "language" Taiwanese is in fact Minnan, one of 12 or so dialects from Fujian province. The idea that the island is mostly Polynesian before the KMT moved in was more than unfounded. When the Portugese (who were one of the first Europeans to come into contact with China) landed in Taiwan in the 1600's, they sought and were granted permission from the then Ming dynasty to build a small colony, indicating undoubtedly China's soverignty over the island even then. The Dutch briefly conquored Taiwan but was later defeated by general flying the Chinese flag, bringing the island back to the fold. As for the Treaty of Shimonoseki, that was an extremely unfair treaty directly due to the Qing dynasty losing the Jiawu Wars. Yes, China did cede Taiwan to Japan in that treaty, but as I recall, one of the key points of that treaty is that if Japan ever continue its hostility towards China (which of course it later did), China will declare the treaty null and void, which it did. Furthermore, during the Cairo Declaration between the Allies during WWII, China, US, Britain as well as other major allies declared that Japan shall be stripped of all her gains before and during WWII and those gains will be returned to their rightful owners. In the case of Taiwan, that is China. Further, US and Britain also pledged to return Taiwan to China during the Potsdam Declaration. Invariably somebody will bring up the San Francisco Treaty, in which neither mainland China nor Taiwan was present, hence it has no legal force. In other words, there never was, never is and never will be any legal justification for Taiwan not being part of China. That is proven by the fact that no international organization and only a handful of small ass countries recognize Taiwan as anything more than a province in China. Oh, and the DPP is so democratic that it made it impossible for the military to vote during the last election. I see that Democracy means lying. As a side note, I find it hilarious that people who have absolutely no knowledge of the events commenting on the situation.
I find it hilarious that you act like this is an unnatural phenomenon in the D&D for the most part, this remains a de facto seperation and will likely stay in status quo for a long, long time. as long as both nations exist, there will always be a pissing contest of some sort. Same ol same ol, I'm not panicking.
I hardly consider myself an unnatural phenomenon, just more knowledgeable in the subject matter. You missed the whole point of my post. I think the problem is that, people tend to forget that when you have a war, people DIE. And when you have a war with a country like China, A LOT of people die. And the world economy will likely be in a recession for years, if not decades as a result. Want to give up your jobs? So when you're gonna get your hands dirty like that, you better know what you are fighting for. And I certainly hope it isn't just so that some semi Jap b*stard on a little island he doesn't own can be king. But hey, I'm sure glad it makes some desktop generals happy.
What do you mean by this? Are you calling Chen Tsui-Bien a "semi Jap b*stard" or US Presidents or nyquil?
uh, i'm saying its not uncommon for people in D&D to assume they know what they are talking about. problem here is what you wrote is still opinion, whether or not it is garnished by whatever experience you may have that makes you feel more knowledgable. I've been taught on the subject matter by ex-CIA on the US and PRC side, it makes me more knowledgable, but it doesn't necessarily make my opinion any better than anyone elses.
I do not believe that the U.S. government really cares who controls Taiwan as long as there is no bloodshed. The U.S. would be happy with the status quo forever. Do we want war with China? No. Is wrecking the world economy worth backing Taiwan? No. Nixon had it right. The PRC isn't going anywhere and they aren't going to give up their claims to Taiwan or Tibet for that matter. I for one would like to see the U.S. press Taiwan for talks with China and declare publicly that we won't stop China from invading if Taiwan is dumb enough to declare independance.
However, much of my post didn't involve an opinion. It involved history, proven history at that. Whatever I am taught on the subject matter is irrelevant. I am merely pointing out that from a historical basis, and one that is supported by international law as well as legislaiture here in the United States, there is no legal justification to recognize Taiwan and anything but a part of China. Let's use a Socratic logical method to think about it. If A is true then B. Well, if US admits Taiwan is part of China, which it does, then the US should by logic, admit that any attempt at independence from Taiwan would constitute a rebellion. And should it do that, it will be aiding a rebelling, which according to international law, violates the sovereignty of China. So when the US says Taiwan is part of China then vows to defend Taiwan, what the hell is it really saying? Mind you, nobody put a gun to the collective heads of American congressmen and forced them to admit Taiwan is part of China. They have to option of saying differently, and vote in congress on the subject matter. But last time I checked, nobody took up that option.
This is a very good post. Nice and balanced view. Incidently though, China and US used to be great friends. They can be again, but Taiwan is one of the biggest thorns.
And are no longer in power in Taiwan. So while we are at it, notice I specifically used China and US instead of their respective governments. So what are you saying really? That the US was friends with a repressive and brutal government that screwed over the country instead of the Chinese people? Is that what you really want to say? So why not have the US be friends with a slightly less respressive (in recent history), slightly less brutal government that didn't screw over the country as much? Oh wait, they are Commies... and democracies can't have that. Or are you saying in fact that they are not friends precisely because them Chicoms didn't screw over China? Hey, when you're #1, you do whatever it takes to keep #2 down right?
Unless they discover some oil in Taiwan, I doubt the US would be interested in protecting them, democracy or not.
What I'm saying is, the US wants to be friends with China and also maintain its lasting friendship with Taiwan. China is demanding that relationship to be mutually exclusive at the expense of Taiwan. It's because of the US's friendship that Taiwan hasn't done anything unstable in the region. You're the one that brought up the idea of friendship....
