Again, where in the world are you getting we didn't evaluate them? Are you privy to that information? Did you see the Rockets' medical evaluation of Simien? The attitude evaluation of Taft? The overall talent evaluation of Turiaf? Fact is, perimeter players have a much better chance of panning out in that portion of the draft than big men.
Juwan Howard was a guy that needed the ball to dominate for his notorius low-post game too. A big time scorer on a lot of bad teams. He was also a terrible defender. He turned out to be golden for us. And it's all in the attitude. He was willing to work hard, always has. THAT'S that type of player JVG can get the most out of. Not Walker, not Swift. SAR is not anywhere close to my ideal type of PF. But he's got a great, low-key attitude and has all the offensive and defensive tools that Juwan has, but with better rebounding. He's also more versatile in that he can play the 3. He also happens to be four years younger and more athletic to boot. If his play degenerates to Juwan's level in the last year of his contract, I'd be happy with that! He's a low-risk, moderate reward investment. And you KNOW he won't disrupt the team's chemistry like Walker. Rockets may not hit a home run with SAR, but a guaranteed triple's not bad. With Walker and Swift, you're talking about a very probable strike out.
It makes perfect sense once you understand that I have NO confidence in CD's ability to get this right. The prime reason we have to make "moves" is because of the bad decisions that have been made by Dawson and the rest of the organization. Faced with him making yet ANOTHER mistake that will set them back years, I'd rather they work to address the problems at the 1-2-3 spots and make do another year at the 4. Well, at least they'd LOOK smart for a change as opposed to what they will look like if they sign Walker. Don't misunderstand me here: I'm not saying that looking at NBDL players is the total answer to their talent woes but it can't hurt. What they need to be doing is what their competition has been doing while they have paraded guys through here: finding good players. Rice is an example of a good player who went undrafted who deserves a look. I admit that I am intrigued with him because he's a JVG type of player. He's more ready now than Badianne will be in 2 years. I'm not opposed to FA players. What I am opposed to is trying to build a team SOLELY through trades and FA signings because I just don't feel that we have the people in place to do it properly. The prime reason that the Rockets are in this spot is becasue they have been picking FA players or trading for guys who end up doing little, if anything, to help this team. All were "proven" players and that ended up counting for nothing. Oh please don't lump me with Yankee fans - I've suffered with the Astros for over 30 years now... . That wouldn't work in Houston anyway because Uncle Les would not spend like King George. I happen to agree. But, this is a process that will take them 2 more years in my opinion and due to the rather slim pickings on the FA market at the PF position, I rather we look at addressing some of the other holes at guard (point & shooting) and small forward (T-Mac needs a backup). Most important of all, if the right guy is not there at the 4 spot this year, I don't want to see them reach for yet another "proven" player who will need to moved later because he just didn't work out.
NIKE, someone posted the list of players we brought in to individually work out, these guys were not on it. Obviously other teams though these guys were quality late 1st or early 2nd round picks. I am in favor of SAR 1st as well. That said, I think there is no a great risk for a strike out on Swift or Walker. Swift actually has been pretty consistent since his 2nd year. He will play 22-27 minutes for the Rockets, and probably put up 10-12.5 points, 5-6 rebounds and about 2 blocks. He will do this by being effective in the paint (mid/high 40s FG%) and at the FT line (70%+). I think there is a good 85% likely Swift is an excellent back-up/marginal starter type. 10% chance he is better than marginal starter (3rd quartile), 5% chance he is not even an excellent back-up. I think you know pretty much what you are getting with him, potential is over used for him. It isn't a great player and probably an average player, but I am confident he ill be a much better player than Bowen/Padget/MoT/Spoon and maybe 50/50 he is better than what Howard was for us last year. Either way, whether Swift starts and JH back-ups, or visa versa, we are in a much better position at the 4 spot. I don't see a "strike out" in Walker either, unless we trade multiple picks for him in a sign and trade. Worst case, he is terrible for team chemistry, someone else will want him. Walker is a proven player in this league, so even if he just doesn't fit well, we are not screwed. DM could be a strike out. He is 32. If he gets injured, or just goes down hill fast starting at age 32, there will be no market for him and he will be a dead weight player. I don't think he will deteriote that fast, I think his shooting skill will keep him effective for a while as it does for Horry, but you never know.
OK, so if the list was inaccurate Rockets did in fact bring in Simien, Taft, Turiaf for individual workouts strike the related comment. Anyway, there is the GM/Dawson prediction thread we can make our case for draftees. OK, back on topic on free agent PFs.
Clutch stated the media was in a sense "locked out" of the Rockets pre-draft info. Did you know we brought Luther Head in twice pre-draft? I sure didn't. There wasn't even anything stating we brought him in the first time. On a pre-draft interview on 790, CD stated this year was the most guys we worked out ever. In a year we had only one pick yet worked out more guys than ever before, to indict the Rockets' staff for not being exhaustive enough is just downright silly. Every time CD or Lindsey spoke, they talked about how much a crapshoot this year was as far as who was going to be there, and CD even talked about some mocks they were looking over, including those with Simien slated to the Rockets. I am very confident they anticipated these guys potentially being there and chose Head over them for a reason. If you recall, the Rockets picked probably faster than any other team in the first round- over 2 minutes remaining on the clock. They were very confident in their pick. If you want to second guess the pick of Head over these guys on your own accord, go ahead, but don't do it under the guise "we didn't evaluate" the other players. Pre-draft talk had the Rockets explicitly worried about Head being there at 24- that's where the trade down to 31 rumor started (if Head wasn't there), along with rumors of Detroit ready to swoop in on Head as well. You mention "other teams" thinking these guys were quality late 1st/2nd rounders- what about the fact BOTH teams in the NBA Finals picked power forwards Jason Maxiell and Ian Mahinmi) and elected to pass on Turiaf, Taft, and Simien? I still don't see why teams seeing value in Turiaf/Taft at 37/42 has any bearing on us drafting them more than a dozen picks earlier. That's like saying Orlando should've drafted Luther Head at 11 because we found value in him at 24.
Solid, but answer me this: Is a player who "is an excellent backup/marginal starter type" worth $9MM+/yr for 5 years? Forgetaboutit. AW is also a risk, but at or near the MLE he can be moved if he doesn't pan out. Of all the PFs discussed SAR would be my choice, followed by AW.
Usually because bigs are selected before guards. From the options left at 24, if Head would have already been taken, we probably would have selected Siemien.
I view Swift is the least riskiest option. He's the one that has to make the fewest changes to his game. All he has to do is play the way he's been playing, only do for longer stretches. He's already a very good defender that will only get better playing under Van Gundy. He's already a good offensive player that knows how to get his points in he flow of the offense. He doesn't need touches in the post. He doesn't need a lot of shots. Doesn’t need any plays called for him. His rebounding needs a little improvement, but not drastic improvement. He actually averages more rebounds per minute than SAR. SAR and Walker both have to make huge adjustments to their game. SAR is not going to get nearly as many touches in the post as he's used to getting. Walker is not going to be allowed to dominate the ball or take as many shots as he's used to. Plus, both need to make big improvements on the defensive end. On this team, with Yao and Mcgrady already etched in stone as the franchise players of this team, I don’t see any of the 3 averaging more than 15 points and 7 rebounds. Walker will probably get 15/7, SAR will probably get 15/6, and Swift 13/6. The big difference maker for me is that Swift will get his points within the flow of the offense (he won’t disrupt the offense), he’s younger and more athletic than the other 2, and he’s a much better defender.
Right. That's the nature of the draft, and the NBA. There's a general premium placed on size. I don't really know if we'd have taken Simien. Yahoo was dead on in tabbing Luther Head to us, so my guess is perhaps we would've managed a trade down. Hillboy, this is why any discussion with you is about as fruitful as one with a brick wall. For your reference, I have watched Walker extensively in Boston (my dad lives there, season ticket holder). Yet your awesome knowledge of watching Walker in a completely different setting in one season during one of the most oddly built Dallas teams makes you the resident expert on Toine.
Swift's agent is looking for a contract starting at 9 mill per. If they can get that, more power to him. I think it's ridiculous.
"The best the Nets could, or would, offer in any sign-and-trade is their $5 million trade exception, which must be used by July 29, and a first-round pick. They have their own in 2006 as well as the Clippers' pick, which could be a high choice if Los Angeles is bad again." Sounds like NJ can/will offer 5M exception plus a low #1 pick. 5M +25% +100,000 is approx 6.1M to sign SAR. Sounds better than anything Rockets could offer.
Can't mix the exceptions. With Trade exceptions, it's the amount of the trade exception+100K, you don't get to add 25% as well. Which puts it virtually the same as a MLE.
NIKE, how much do you think the Nets are kicking themselves that they used HALF of their 10M T.E. on Elden Campbell....only to cut him a month later. Think that FULL 10M T.E. would come in handy now in terms of making a deal for SAR/Swift? HUGE blunder by Rod Thorn!
What exceptions? I only mentioned one. If Portland signs SAR to a deal starting at 6.1M and then trade him to NJ for the 5M exception that would be within 25% + 100,000. Are you saying the exception has to match exactly? How does it work?
I've said it before and i'll say it again . . . i don't understand why anyone ever thought or thinks that the rockets have a chance at SAR. Too many teams want him, and we don't have the cash to get into a bidding war. SAR is good and I'd love to have in on my team, but i would also like to drive a Bentley.
The 25%+100K "rule" is what is known as the Assigned Players Exception. You can't mix that and the traded players exception. It's the primary reason people get into the fallacy of trying to trade a player with an exception. Any time a team is over the cap and makes a trade, they are by rule using the assigned players exception. Since teams under the cap won't have trade exceptions (they renounce them to create more cap room), the APE and TEs can't be aggregated. This is not to say a trade exception and a player can't be used in the same deal, like we did in the Reece Gaines Mike James trade, but they can't be stacked. Deuce- One of the worst moves I have ever seen. Thorn did it mainly in a pissing contest with Larry Brown and Dumars. He blows up a huge chip, and then cuts the guy.
