LOL! I hope I'm right too. I just feel like we are just not getting the full story and, as it seems to always happen, thier next move will come out of nowhere and/or someone's name that wasn't thrown out by the media linked to us.
Great post Jeff. I have no doubt that Swift will get a huge contract from some team out there. So signing him is almost a pipe dream. I think SAR is much more likely to come here b/c he has experienced losing throughout his career and wants to play for a winner (atleast I hope thats how he feels). However, I still feel there wil be a team out there that will give him an offer he might not be able to refuse. That basically leaves Marshall and Walker as the two best choices. Personally I would much rather have a 28 year old former all-star than a 34 year old player who basically plays on the perimeter. Even with all his faults (bad defense and bad shot selection) Walker brings alot to the table (a legit 3td scoring option, great court vision, 3 point shooting, and above average rebounding). If the Rockets can get him, it might go down as one of the best signings for the MLE.
I would prefer to get Simmons in a sign and trade if possible even though he is a SF. I still feel he could be a more than decent SG and backup T-Mac as well. He seems to be a dependable young player unlike Swift whom I have wanted in the past. Walker for the MLE would be all right if he can give a better effort on defense and play like he did in the 2nd part of the last season with the Celtics. SAR is a reliable player but his skills are similar to Howard. I would pass up on him. Marshall is getting older and we can't afford to give him a long contract. I agree with those who are advocating getting a defensive minded 4 who can rebound and come cheap as a backup for Howard instead of overspending in a sign and trade.
Thomas he met in New York with Memphis 6-9 PF/C Stromile Swift, a rangy shot blocker who would solve a big weakness and place Michael Sweetney on the block. But there's little chance of getting the heavily sought Swift for the $5.1M mid-level exception. The unrestricted free agent is seeking $9M per. . . . http://www.nypost.com/sports/knicks/49268.htm
Nice analysis Jeff. I pretty much agree with it. I echo what AB said, I was surprised to see Walker is only 28 years old. It does seem like he has been in the league forever. Clearly he has a number of good years ahead of him at the prime of his career. Plus since Walker's game isnt built on athleticism but rather skill and savvy, he will continue to be effective in the twilight of his career. Ok, Jeff, now when are you going to do your analysis on Bobby Simmons? He can play PF for a few minutes against guys like Marion and the like.
My top choice would be Rahim. My second choice would be Walker. Most people don't like Walker because he's always been over paid (ala Juwan Howard early in his career). Walker for anything close to the MLE would be a steal as long as he makes a concerted effort to stay within the offense and not jack up 3 pointers. His FG% for a "PF" is atrocious. He needs to stay closer to the rim as #1 priority for a PF on ourb team is rebounding - not standing at the 3 point line. Id be just as happy if we got Bobby Simmons.
Jeff, considering the Rockets' penchant for secrecy, I say "none of the above." I think they will work a deal with Washington for Kwame Brown.
I'm thinking along the same lines. Sure, it'd be great to improve at the power forward spot, but I don't think we should sign a power forward just to sign a power forward. I don't know that any of these guys are the long term answer for us, and if we're just looking to patch up the power forward spot til' we can do better, well, there are cheaper bandaids out there.
Walker wasn't my first choice. But, there is a case to be made for him. He has been paid a LOT and he has been relied upon to carry the offensive load for teams like the Celtics. He played for Jim O'Brien, a guy notorius for asking his teams to jack up as many three's as possible, so it isn't surprising that a guy with Walker's size who can hit 30+ percent from distance shot a lot of them when, on any other team, he wouldn't be doing it. Walker has never been asked to do the things he would be asked to do in Houston. Unlike Dallas, he wouldn't be relegated to sharing a LOT of time with another forward (Jamison). Howard would play, but Walker would get the bulk of the minutes. Unlike Boston, he wouldn't be asked to shoot a lot of three's or handle the basketball. In Houston, he would be asked to hit open shots, play solid defense and rebound. He can rebound. Last year, he ranked 15th in the league with 9 rebounds per game, which is just over his 8.6/year average for his career. The guy has averaged 19 points per game for his career to go with those 9 rebounds. There are only a handful of NBA players who average that each year. And on the three-point shooting, yes, for someone with a career average of 32 percent, he takes to many (5 per game) especially at his position, but his average in playoff games rises to 40 percent, a market improvement. A few other notes on Walker... He is one of the better passing fours in the league. He has a career average of 4 assists per game, sandwiched right between Kevin Garnett (4.5) and Tim Duncan (3.6) - not bad company - and he turns the ball over less than both Garnett and Duncan. He has the lateral quickness to guard other power forwards, but he has never been on a team that demanded defense like JVG does. Given his long arms and good foot speed, he likely can become a very solid defender even if he isn't a shot blocker. He has averaged almost a steal and a half for his career relying more on quickness than size or leaping ability to defend the post. My personal opinion is that if you can get a guy like Walker for the MLE, he is likely worth it. He will take the scoring load off of Yao and McGrady and, while he isn't the prototypical defensive rebounder that might fit behind Yao, he is a good rebounder and, with his long range threat, will force defenders to make tough decisions when double teaming Yao or T-Mac. If he improves defensively - and let's face it, who doesn't under JVG - he would make this a better team and certainly a better offensive team.
Great stuff Jeff. I've never been a fan of Walker, but I would trust JVG would make sure they were on the same page before letting him play here.
As if Swift is worth anything close to that. I can't wait to see the team that overpay's for this bumb. The NBA is amazing. You don't have to have proved anything to get drafted in the first round, and you don't have to have proved anything to get a fat contract. Unbelievable.
I agree completely with both of you. It's Stro or bust for me. If the Rockets cannot find their ideal power forward this summer (or at least someone young enough to be the ideal pf), I'd just assume they go out and get a stop gap 4 like Lorenzen Wright or Joe Smith to split time with Howard. Either get a long term solution or get a stop gap, but don't make a long term investment in a player that is not a long term solution. The power forward that the Rockets ultimately decide is going to play next to Yao the next +5 years will be the single most important decision the Rockets make. I know everybody here seems to be fixated on bringing in a big name power forward, but signing a big name 4 just because they are a big name would totally take the Rockets to the wrong path. The same path that leads to teams like Dallas or Portland that just go out and get big name players like SAR or Walker regardless of fit and never win championships. We need to build our team like the Spurs or Pistons. Get role players who fit the system, not players that simply have pretty stats.
I think we need rebounding, althelticism, defense, and a third scoring option. Walker provides at least 3 of the 4, while Swift only provides 1 of the 4. But it's pointless to debate the issue because we are not going to get Stromile Swift, we just don't have the money. If we signed Walker, it wouldn't be just to make a big slash. We'd sign him because he's the most talented pf on the market, and he solves some of our problems. For me it's SAR or WAlker, but if those two were off the board, I'd love a stop-gap 4 like Wright.
He may bring some rebounding and scoring, but all the negative aspects of his game (turnovers, bad shot selection, matador defense) would negate all of the positives he would bring. You would never ever find a player that is as inefficient as Antoine Walker on a championship team like Detroit or San Antonio.
I'm not sure you can just get by with any power forward this season. If anything, we've found out that assets are important in this league. If we signed just some third tier guy like Lorenzen Wright or Joe Smith, it doesn't improve the team nor does it add a potential trade asset down the road. It is the main reason I don't care for Donyell Marshall - that and his age. Walker, SAR and Swift are all guys that can contribute and will have value over time when it comes to making trades. Honestly, the Rockets feel like with an entire season together with their main pieces in place, they can contend for home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. It isn't out of reach if they land a decent four.
For third tier guys they are paid like first tier First Tier'ers! And neither is 'free' to sign IIRC. (I would take JS as a back up for an expiring contract, however...and only for such.)
No question about "assets." There is a big drop off from Tmac/Yao to everyone else on this team. We need some guys to fill the gaps. That's one of the biggest pluses in my book for getting Walker, especially at around the MLE level. That is great value, and if the Walker experient didnt work out for any reason he still would have decent value around the league for trades at that price.
I can see what you guys are saying, but my question is: Who is the ideal PF for us then? I'm not saying ya'll are wrong or anything, but what other PFs would fit w/ us that would be somewhat available? Like Jeff said, I don't think we can get by another season w/o addressing the PF situation first. Zboy- What SG's do you think we could get for the MLE? There are a bunch of them like you said, but most of them are wanting and will most likely get more than the MLE.
This is certainly true, but you can't just go on year after year making it to the first round only to lose. That gets you nowhere. In most cases, role players that fit don't actually fill that description until after the fact. Even San Antonio, which seems to be the most logically constructed team in the league, has mistakes...overpaying Malik Rose, the Nesterovic signing.
The ideal 4 would be someone who is an athletic defense-first power forward who can rebound, is decent on offense, and can do the dirty work for the team. Amare has Kurt Thomas, Shaq has Haslem, Duncan has Mohammad, Dirk has Dampier, Rasheed has Ben. Yao needs someone like that that can do the dirty work so he can focus on the offensive end. Swift would fit the mold. Kwame Brown might fit the mold. Reggie Evans could be what we need if he can develop his offensive game like Ben Wallace. PJ Brown would be a decent rental. I thought it would have been more beneficial had the Rockets drafted a power forward like Simien that has the tools and can be developed him into the player we need at the 4.
