OK, think I understnad what you are saying. A TE has to be within 100,000 of incoming salary. It doesn't work like a normal trade. NJ doesn't really have any pieces to do a S&T except that exception. Maybe we swap Wesley 4.95M for the trade exception. NJ then can do a normal trade and bump SAR salary upto 6M in a S&T with Wesley. Then we have the MLE for a PF still and a very easily traded TE + pick for Mobley/Simmons.
I'm no expert on Walker (that would be Mark Cuban) but I do know this: his current game is NOT what the Rockets need at the PF position. For him to succeed here he would have to undergo a radical makeover in terms of his game and his demeanor. That's asking a bit much. At this stage of his career, he's pretty much set in his ways so I feel that it is delusional to believe that JVG can force him to change. I'm a firm believer in that what you see is what you get and from what I've seen of 'Toine, he simply does not fit here. He plays no defense (JVG would LOVE this!), is a poor rebounder, breaks the offense with bad shot decisions (sure to make him a fan favorite) and causes problems in the locker room (He got crossways with Don Nelson - just imagine him with JVG). He hasn't bounced around the league because of some fluke - it's because he's been a ill fit. Just say no.
he's played for the same amount of teams as mcgrady, three, and boston even traded to get him back. the celtics are probably also one of the rockets biggest competitors for his services next season. when clutch originally did his write up on walker i thought HELL NO, but i've sinced warmed up to the idea. i think his 3 point attempts can be reigned in with jvg and his offensive arsenal might be too good to not give it a shot with the mle. van gundy has spoke about being bold this offseason and i'd say this would definitely fit the description.
I know Swift is your man and all, but the way he plays now isn't very good for the team. All he has going for him is his athleticism. His mid-range jumper is inconsistent and shot selection is suspect. He's not a great defender, just the best one on a team full of crappy defenders. That's like saying Amare is the best defender on the Suns; it doesn't mean much. Even Clutch's profile admitted that Swift's one on one defense isn't good. And the only reason he averages more rpm than SAR is because SAR plays the 3, whereas Swift spits time between PF and C. SAR doesn't post up that much now. And it's good to know that at least he and Walker can. His jumpshot is good out to 18ft. And I'm sure if asked to, he could actually stretch it out to the 3 consistently. Juwan Howard was one of the best back to the basket scorers in the NBA. If Juwan doesn't disrupt the flow of offense, why would you expect SAR to? Swift gets all his points on putbacks. If he can't create space for Yao, what good is he offensively? Are we going to have to get a PG that can specifically do an alley oop pass? I bet if he comes, teams will double Yao anyways and dare Swift to beat them with his (inconsistent) jumper. I know you think Swift is superior defensively, but from what I've seen he's really a non-presence. It's similar to Chris Mihm in that he can get a lot of blocks, but have absolutely no inside presence whatsoever.
Is Mark Cuban also the Erick Dampier expert? Where are you getting he's a poor rebounder? Since you watched him with Dallas, he was the 2nd leading rebounder to Dirk and 2nd most efficient rebounder on the team to Danny Fortson- outdoing Bradley, Jamison, Nowitzki, Najera, and Scott Williams in the process. Just to get rid of any "good rebounder on a bad rebounding team" arguments, the team outrebounded its opponents by nearly 2 per game. Contrary to what Mo Taylor would have you believe, defense and rebounding aren't always coordinated. Walker is a below average defender, but a very good rebounder (12th in the league in defensive rebounds/game this year). Similarly, good shot blockers aren't always good defenders- Swift and Chris Andersen (who is an absolutely MISERABLE man defender) are good examples of this. As BigM already said, Walker hasn't exactly bounced around the league. Dallas traded him (and Jamison) because they needed point guards after letting Nash go. Most prognosticators thought Cuban's decision to acquire any PF available when he already had Dirk was ill-fated to begin with. It should also tell you something that Boston wanted him back, and you have to imagine Pierce was at least asked about it before it happened. I would be more worried about the fit with JVG if Walker wasn't relaying the interest. Walker knows Van Gundy's reputation- you don't seek out a guy like Van Gundy unless you're ready to win. While you think Van Gundy will clash with him, Van Gundy took on the ultimate coach's challenge not named Rodman (Sprewell post choke), and TMac was supposed to be an ego problem. The other thing is, Walker would be coming in as the undeniable #3. I'd argue even in Dallas, at least in Walker's mind, he could make a strong argument he should've been the #2 guy- the year before, only Dirk had scored 20+ ppg, and he did it while in Boston- a team that did make the 2nd round of the playoffs. I have a lot of confidence in Van Gundy's ability to handle egos like Walker, and make them work for him. If they don't, they go the route of MoT or Jim Jackson. A PF with Walker's resume and production will always have some sort of value.
All the teams with SAR as their priority FA target are in the same boat with us, they ONLY have the MLE to offer. Only Miami and us would be able to offer him a starting job for a championship contender. All these guys may to some degree be faced with some compromise between making the maximum money versus playing for the best team, how this shakes out with each player is anyone's guess. I would say Swift is the most likely to go purely for money--and least plausible for the Rockets, as SAR and AW are coming of mega contracts. That said I don't think anyone will pay Swift close to 9 mil a year for four or five years, teams spending that kind of money have higher targets. Now Cleveland could get in the picture, they are under the cap and have some promise. But a max player like Redd/Allen/maybe Johnson is their #1 target, resigning Z is their #2 goal, and anyone else (they may have just a tad over the MLE for the last contract) is #3. Supposedly the last player might be AD. Note with Spoon's expiring contract alone we can trade for a guy starting at about 6.5 +/- 25%. I'd be OK for about 8 mil average for SAR or AW if it wasn't too many years (probably throw in something like the NY 2nd and future #1). Wesley's contract alone can also take on up to a little over 6 mil starting contract, if they want a better player who cost less next year and it is sufficient for the deal. There a lots of other options too mixing in James, Sura or Head with expiring contracts Wesley, Spoon or Baker--those three guards all have some degree of value (late 1st to early 2nd value at least). Remember, for these situations the players and the agents have the most leverage, not their current teams. As these guys can always sign 5 year full MLEs (about 30mil or 6 mil average) or sign with a league dreg who is under the cap and sees too much of a bargain late in FA not to move (New Orleans, Charlotte, Milwalkee), and leave their current team with nothing. If you are Boston, and Toine says he wants to leave and is going to leave, but you can get James or Head + expiring contract (Wesley?) + say a future pick (NY 2nd OR a future 1st)--you would do it. Same is probably true for Memphis or Portland. You have to first look to take care of your own needs (get something of value back) before trying to screw your opponents (say if Portl or Mem tried to get these guys away from a conference foe). These URFA are in a position of strength, not their current teams.
We can't trade Head now until Dec 15th. Also Portland has Telfair & Jarrett Jack at the point. Why would they want James? maybe Wesley. They will also try and unload the rapist Patterson on us. I'm all for SAR but I don't want the baggage we will have to take on to get him in a S&T.
Can Boston offer Walker a better deal than us even if both teams have only a MLE ? I'm sorry if this question has already been answered elsewhere.
Yes, Boston has his Bird rights and can offer huge money but they believe he is only worth MLE. Believe they will let him go in a S&T if someone wants to offer more than the MLE.
You do realize the Memphis Grizzlies have the 4th best defense in the league? Ok, so let me get this straight. Juwan Howard was one of the best back to the basket players in the league. He averages at least 17 points a game every season. He comes here, becomes a jumpshooter and his scoring average drops to 9 points a game. What is to prevent the same thing from happening to SAR, when SAR relies on his post up game even more than Howard did? You claim he's not a good rebounder and yet he's able to get 10 points a game all from offensive rebounds? Swift is much more skilled offensively than you give him credit for. He's not just another Cato. Cato would never be able to average 10 points in only 21 minutes. Hell, Juwan wasn't even able to average 10 in 26.6 minutes. Swift gets his points in a variety of ways (post ups, drives to the basket, jump shots, alley oops, put backs). He's very active on offense, always moving without the ball. That's exactly what Yao needs. Not someone that's just going to stand at the top of the key and watch as Yao gets manhandled. Besides, what would help Yao's offensive game the most is to not have to expend as much energy as does now on the defensive end (challenging every shot, trying to draw charges, defending players out on the perimeter, etc.). Having a player like Swift that can anchor the defense would help Yao immensely.
SAR can hurt you a lot more spots on the floor than JH. Equal mid-range jumper, better near the basket, better off the dribble, can go to the 3 point line, and better at drawing fouls. Overall just a much more dynamic scorer who does what JH does and a lot more. Besides, JH was good for the Rockets. If SAR is just a little better, little more dynamic player, in a 3-4 year younger package, that is a fine acquisition (at worst he is this, at most he is a much more dynamic and potent player for us). The fact JH fit is well is a good sign that SAR would work well, not a bad one. I agree with you. Swift is a much better offensive player than Cato, better than many here admit. Still he isn't as efficient with jumpers as JH, SAR, AW, or DM, so we would have to use him differently on offense. But that may not be a bad thing, the guy can finish in the lane or at the line. Still offensively I see SAR bringing lots of the best aspects of Swift (finishing around the rim, getting foul and converting a lot) with the midrange effectiveness of JH. No question Swift helps more than SAR defensively though. Walker is the hardest one to get a handle on how he will impact things, but he is probably the easiet to obtain (along with Marshall) and maybe would have the most impact, good or bad.
I think if you rate these guys by sheer talent, Walker is the most talented. I am not a fan of Walker, but under JVG, Walker's ill-advised shots and other negatives would be put on a leash or he will sit. Leaving you with his positive skills and contributions. Our team is already an upper echelon defensive team with Juwon Howard at PF. Think about it. Don't underestimate the JVG factor.
Swift helps with the shotblocking and weakside help. He's still a below average man-up defender, and like most shotblockers, feels uncomfortable away from the basket on defense. Here is the list of opponent PERs from 82 games for Memphis' primary interior players: At Power Forward: Swift: 18.8 Gasol: 17.0 Cardinal: 17.7 At Center: Swift: 20.9 Gasol: 19.0 Wright: 16.0 Tsakalidis: 15.0 Swift is pretty distinctly the worst at both positions for Memphis. For comparison's sake, Abdur-Rahim's opponent PER was 18.9 (on a worse defensive team), Walker's opponent PER was 17.9 for Atlanta and 19.0 for Boston. Juwan Howard's was 16.9 for us. Being on a good defensive team skews your defensive numbers in a good way (and usually hurts your offensive numbers). See Juwan Howard. He put up a below average 16.9 defensive PER for us, but put up a pretty terrible defensive PER of 19.9 for Orlando the year before. Walker and SAR didn't have the benefit of playing for a solid defensive team like Memphis. You're going to have to come up with a better citation than one fan on a Memphis message board to show Swift's man defense is respectable. You could find many people here last year who would swear Nachbar was ready to break out. But why, exactly, would Swift be allowed to display his full array of talents but Toine or SAR or anyone else wouldn't? We've seen it even when Bowen is in the game, a large part of the PF's responsibility is to hit the midrange jumper, which isn't exactly Swift's forte- and comparing Swift's shooting prowess to SAR or Walker isn't even a contest.
I remember that Grizzlies quote from the Commerical Appeal forums. The author is out of his mind. A couple days ago, he wanted to trade for Vin Baker - not for the expiring contract, but for the player! I still believe spending money on Swift is spending money on an area of the least pressing need. Houston's defense was top three in defensive FG percentage and points allowed last season. It's been said before that Houston was the top team in defending the paint. Houston was number 8 in rebounding differential. Those are the areas Swift would help the most, but Houston is already an elite team in those categories. However, Swift would be a huge upgrade in shot-blocking, since Houston is only average there (16th). We need another offensive threat. Houston was 20th in offensive field goal percentage and 20th in points scored per game last season. Swift isn't nearly as effective offensively as the other candidate power forwards, and that's where we need the most help.
Mack does bring up a good point. When Yao gets in foul trouble and is struggling because of lack of stamina due to good defense or physical play and is mentally tired it leaves T-Mac as our sole attacker on most occasions. It becomes easier to stop him and causes us to collapse. We do need a consistant 3rd attacker. Howard does provide help and so does James at times but our main problem is that of having too many aging players on the team.
Swifts team defense is clearly better than his man-to-man, but I think he’s still a better man-to-man defender than both Walker and SAR. Swift is often caught leaving his own man to help a teammate out on defense, trying to challenge a shot. Per 48, his opponents take 19.3 FG attempts and he keeps them at a respectable 0.472 eFG%. Other players in comparison: Walker 16.2 (0.515) Abdur-Rahim 16.1 (0.521) Howard 17.1 (0.471) So Swifts opponents average more against him, because they take more shots. I think if Walker, SAR, or Howard were asked to help out as much on defense as Swift does, you would see their opponents FGA and points per both go up. Instead of trying to challenge shots, if Swift stayed home more like those 3 get to do, his man wouldn’t the get ball as much and have fewer scoring opportunities. This is where Swift would benefit greatly from playing with another shotblocker in Yao and vice versa. How many times do you see Yao go leave his man to challenge a shot only to have his man score? With Swift here, you have someone that has the quickness and athleticism to slide over and challenge Yao’s man. Just look at how much Ben Wallace, Rasheed Wallace, and Mcdyess benefit from playing together. Or how much Duncan benefits from having Mohammad and Horry there to block few shots a game. Like I’ve said before, he gets his offense in the flow. He doesn’t need a lot of touches. He doesn’t need a lot of plays run for him. He’s an opportunistic offensive player. If he has the ball at the free throw line and there’s an opening, he’ll take it right in for the dunk. If he has a mismatch, he’ll post up. If there’s nothing, he’ll keep the ball moving. The offense doesn’t come to a halt with him like it does when SAR gets the ball in the post, or when Walker has the ball out at the 3 point line. You’ll never see him waste any time on the shotclock.
When Swift was at LSU, he was a man among boys when he posted up. Don't know what happened to his post up game. It seems to have disappeared. But he did used to have offensive post moves.
That actually amazes me. Good point. I did not know that. I'm astounded, really. You look at that team play and they all stink defensively. JWill, Gasol, Miller, Wright, Cardinal. Wells and Posey are impressive, though. No one on that team is better defensively than Swift, but how many rockets on this current roster are? Tmac, Deke, Wesley, James. He'd rank fifth defensively and that ain't impressive enough to make me enthusiastic about his arrival. Hmm, what did you say you expected Swift to average if he were on the rox? 13/7. What did Juwan average in the last two months he played? 13/7. You're selling Juwan way short. He got better and better as the year wore on. The season average takes into account the time he was playing second fiddle to MoT. A big mistake. He worked to fit in. You know SAR and Marshall will do the same. Walker and Swift are much bigger question marks. Do you think Juwan disrupted the offensive flow in the latter half of the season? Heck no. He's not a good rebounder. Period. SAR gets almost as many rebounds from playing 3 as Swift does at PF/C. Walker and Marshall both get more rebounds and even THEY aren't that good at it. I want the new rox PF to be a monster rebounder, but there just isn't one in this free agency. I know you think Swift is gifted offensively. And he is. I never said he was bad offensively. But he may not be as versatile as you think. He doesn't have a reliable jump shot or post up game. He has put backs and alley oops, the latter of which we aren't even equipped to perform. Yao isn't going to get manhandled on offense with Howard and SAR. They hit their jumpshots and teams have to respect that. SAR and Walker will not get better here, they will get worse. But getting worse from their stats ain't that bad. And if they end up as quicker, younger versions of Juwan then it definitely ain't that bad. Swift has a lot of potential, but he simply has not performed well enough to deserve the fat contract he's looking for. You draft for potential. You don't pay five-year veterans for potential anymore, you pay them for performance.
Jeff....finally a straight ahead analysis that clears the air for me personally. The news release out of Boston tells me intuitvely that we should all get set to welcome Walker with open arms. I thinkwe would shock the western conference ( GAME WISE) with his addition, no kidding. If this happens a 55 win team is a real scenerio in the extremelly tough west. I believe that with the right addition behind Juwan and the up side of Mr Head, the Rockets have upgraded as much as can be reasonably expected in one off season. Thank you ! I am so ready for summer league, and it looks like there are a few games down at the center to definatly catch some rocket ball. October can't get here soon enough.
Just having a quick read through the forum and it seems alot of people are high on us getting Walker from the Celtics. I cant think of a worse player for us to get.
