It doesn't matter. None of those teams will win the division. The division winner gets all 3 WC games at home, so it makes no difference if they finish with a better record. And the Astros are too far behind the Yankees ( magic number 2) and Guardians ( magic number 3) to secure a bye. To secure a bye Astros 8-0 = Yankees 1-7 and Orioles 6-2 or Guardians 2-5 or worse Astros 7-1 = Yankees 0-8 and Orioles 5-3 or Guardians 1-6 or worse Astros 6-2 = Guardians 0-7 or worse Those are only chances Astros get a bye. For division: Astros 4-4 or better Astros 3-5 and Mariners 7-1 or worse Astros 2-6 and Mariners 6-2 or worse Astros 1-7 and Mariners 5-3 or worse Astros 0-8 and Mariners 4-4 or worse If the Astros win both remaining games vs Angels, the Mariners would be eliminated unless they sweep the Astros next week. Based on all this, the Astros post season position is all but sealed. There shouldn't he any reason to burn pitching in the Cleveland series going into the playoffs.
This seems ridiculously unfair to Blanco. How did he essentially end up the backup to the #4 starter? He's #5 in the AL in ERA and leads all of baseball in BAA. He hasn't given up a run in his last 13 innings covering all of September, suggesting he's gotten past his midseason issues. Even *during* his midseason issues, he was better than Verlander this season. And somehow he's an emergency reliever for a pitcher with an ERA over 5 (10+ in September!) and gets to come in to clean up a likely mess? Framber is obviously #1. I can see Kikuchi at #2 just given that he hasn't lost a game as an Astro, but he's been slowly regressing some. Brown is good, but he's not been better than Blanco really in any way. If the Astros weren't happy with Dusty because he didn't play his best players, there's no possible way to justify starting Verlander over any of the Astros other 5 SPs.
This isn't about fair. Blanco has extensive experience coming out of the bullpen and isn't a HOF who has helped the Astros win 2 rings. If Verlander starts and craps the bed, then Blanco can potentially turn the game around and allow the Astros to win. If Blanco starts and craps the bed, there is no way Verlander can be brought in to hold the other team down. Keep in mind, he has needed pitched in the past season and it is a whole different animal from the regular season. It's the respectful way to treat Verlander, but also the smart baseball move. And I will point out that as good as Blanco has been, Brown ABSOLUTELY has been better for the majority of the season.
We have 4 elite bullpen arms right now. You're turning an AL Cy-Young contender into a middle reliever to try to save a game where you're already way behind. Beyond that, Blanco does have extensive experience coming out of the bullpen - and he's been horrible for all of it. He was awful in the bullpen in 2022 and he was worse in the bullpen than as a starter in 2023. This is not how to get the best from your players. Yes, that's absolutely true. You're also substantially making it more likely that your SP starts and craps the bed in the first place. I'd prefer trying to actually avoid that scenario. Experience doesn't matter when you can't pitch well and even Verlander tells you he's not pitching well right now. And he's getting worse every month. I'm not benching the Cy-Young contender for one of the worst SPs in baseball right now because he has experience pitching poorly in the bullpen which somehow makes him a bullpen weapon Statistically, that's just not really true unless you parse fairly arbitrary small sample sizes. If you take out Brown's awful April, he and Blanco have been fairly similar. If you then take out Blanco's worst month, Blanco goes back to being better. But regardless, none of that is particularly relevant to Blanco vs Verlander.
I don't think 23 starts is a small sample size. That's how long it's been since Hunter has pitched less than 5 innings. In those 23 starts, Hunter has given up more than 3 runs (not just earned runs) 4 times and 1 or fewer 12 times - more than half. On the same time period, Blanco has started 21 and pitched fewer than 5 innings in 5 of them (to be fair, 1 was the gane he was ejected) while giving up more than 3 runs in 6 of them and 1 or fewer in 8 if them. And you can't just randomly take away a bad month. Whatever time period you choose should be of significant size and include current back to whenever you feel is legitimate without any gaps. Blanco has been excellent, but Brown has been clearly better. The Astros are lucky to have them both, now and for 4 and 5 more years, respectively.
WC: Game 1: Framber 5ip Neris, Abreu, Pressly, Hader 6-9 Game 2: Brown 5ip Neris, Abreu, Pressly, Hader 6-9 Game 3 (if necessary) Kikuchi 4ip Blanco 2ip Ort, Abreu, Hader 7-9
Meaningless regular season games in the final week are for AAA pitchers Bluebaugh, Gordon, & Gusto. I would consider starting Verlander in the first WC game. Give him up to 4 innings but pull him for Blanco at the first sign of trouble. I do not want to burn starters in the damn wild card round.
I would consider Arrighetti before Ort. In fact, I think pitching Spencer in 6th and/or 7th of a game could save Abreu from having to pitch all 3 games and keep him available for ALDS game #1. But you don't keep Abreu out just to keep him fresh if he's needed. All hands. . .
None of those guys are on the 40 man roster and would require optioning current players. There is also some value to keeping starters sharp. 917-9/22: Brown, Framber, Kikuchi, Verlander, Blanco, Arrighetti 9/23 Sea - Brown (clinch?) on 5 days 9/24 Sea- Framber (clinch?) on 5 days 9/25 Sea- Verlander on 4. off 9/27 Cle- Kikuchi on 7 (60-70 pitches) 9/28 Cle- Blanco on 6 9/29 Cle- Bullpen day for non-postseason guys. off 10/1 WC game #1 Framber on 6 days rest 10/2 WC game #2 Brown on 8 days (bullpens) 10/3 WC game #3 Kikuchi on 5 days
There’s nothing “smart” about allowing JV to start in the playoffs. It’s crazy you of all people, someone who is so in tune with stats and results, are actually suggesting this. Teams usually don’t come back in the playoffs when the starter “craps the bed” so this is also just a wild statement to make.
I'd go: Framber Young Brother Brown Usei Blanco Verlander No rotation just keep the line moving all the way to game 6 of the world series when they win it.
You don’t pull any of those three starters because of a “set innings plan” if they are pitching well. Especially Framber and Brown.
I don't know about you, but I'm assuming these last 8 games are going to ****ing matter until they don't.
After seeing how Scherzer struggled when he wasn't ready, I think Verlander understands why knowing his limitations is important
I understand exactly what you are saying and everything you say is right. #1 - I'm not saying JV is in. I am saying if he has an OK performance in his final start of the season, then this is an option. If he gives up more than 1 run every 2 innings, forget about it. #2- I am acknowledging that IF JV can manage that, his experience and ability makes him a viable starter. #3- I think both Arrighetti and Blanco could be very valuable pitching multiple games out of the bullpen, rather than a single game as a starter. #4- Since neither Blanco nor Spencer have started a post season game, nobody can definitely say how they will do. #5- They WILL be on the postseason roster, though. If JV isn't starting, he isn't on the team. So there are more options if JV needs help, than if Spencer or Blanco need help.
