Verlander will probably start and pitch 1 or 2 innings (1st order of the lineup). I can see a short leash on him in the playoffs, he's had moments in the past of falling apart before. Arrighetti or Blanco will need to start warming up early.
Blanco is going to have to improve his control in his first innings before being gifted a bullpen spot. We will see how he does this next month in that role. Time to figure it out.
Verlander doesn’t have that electric fastball anymore, his max effort today on the last batter he hit 95.
Framber, Brown, Kikuchi, and Arrighetti should be the starters for the playoffs. Will see how the rest of the season plays out, but unless JV picks it up later he shouldn't be a starter. Feelings is nice and all, but when playoffs hit...it needs to be the best starting.
Sure. I'm just hoping that his new found sequencing and pitch usage doesn't get fully dissected/adjusted to prior to the playoffs. Out of his 6 great starts, it is telling that 4 of them were against AL East teams who faced quite a bit of him over the last few years and had plenty of older data on him. Tampa did strike out much less the 2nd go around. Then again, Kikuchi's also now got access to the Astros intellgence/data that based on how stellar everybody is doing, may just be that much better than the rest of the league's.
As big a fan of Luhnow that I was, and irritated at Crane for firing AJ Hinch and Luhnow; well Crane did have the foresight to build the analytics side of baseball. It was Crane who sought out Luhnow to build the machine. And Even though Luhnow is long gone, the machine Luhnow helped build is still functioning in a highly effective operational mode. The information the Astros coaches can mine from the data must be mind boggling. Because they can identify a struggling pitcher and put him in a position to succeed. They just need willing participants, guys that aren’t going to be so high on their own ego as to blow off the Astros analytics and advice. I am very proud of the humility that Whitley is now (finally) showing, as once he ceded to the Astros advice, he’s had his first good season in the minor leagues since 2017 when he was one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball. And Kukuchi is another example of a guy with tremendous stuff, but always getting belted by the league. His career ERA does not look like that of a guy with his zip on his pitches. But Dana Brown mentioned in the new conference after they acquired him, that they were looking at him as their number 3 arm in the rotation. The machine might have been built on the back of Luhnow, but it was Crane who desired this tool and found his Dr. Frankenstein to build it for him.
I wouldn't write JV off just yet, he should have 5-6 starts to get back in shape.....with that said, he should have a short leash in the playoffs as should anyone, we have the depth and now is the time to use it.
Jared Cosart, Bud Norris, and Mike Foltynewicz in tears. Back in Evan Drellich's early days in hating the Astros: https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sp...l-methods-paint-astros-as-outcast-5501982.php "They are definitely the outcast of major league baseball right now, and it's kind of frustrating for everyone else to have to watch it," said former Astros pitcher Bud Norris, now with Baltimore. "When you talk to agents, when you talk to other players and you talk amongst the league, yeah, there's going to be some opinions about it, and they're not always pretty." [...] "It doesn't affect our ability to make people happy at the big league level. It just doesn't. It affects their ability to perform better and be more prepared. That's at least our hypothesis, and what we believe. And to tie that together with (how we handle) contracts is ridiculous." The Astros are firm in their belief that winning will fix everything, but that begets a question of how much buy-in by players and coaches is needed in advance, and how much perception and happiness matter. "I don't think anybody's happy. I'm not," one Astros player said recently on the condition his identity not be revealed. "They just take out the human element of baseball. It's hard to play for a GM who just sees you as a number instead of a person. Jeff is experimenting with all of us." Luhnow declined comment on the player's specific charge, but team owner Jim Crane said that "we treat everyone with respect" and that he supported Luhnow's use of statistics to help make decisions. <Thanks, Bagwell> "We're not running for election here; it's not a popularity contest," said Luhnow, who seeks feedback from across the organization but said feelings aren't high on his list of concerns unless they impact outcomes. "We're trying to win big league games, and we're trying to produce major league players in the minor leagues, so if those two results are occurring, that's predominantly what we care about. Now of course, any time you've got human beings involved … you want to understand how they're impacted." [...] "I would expect (some unhappiness) to be out there, and yes, of course we care about it," said Luhnow, a first-time general manager. "But is it going to change what we're doing if we believe we're doing the right thing? No, it's not going to. … We're sensitive to it. If it starts to affect us in a meaningful way that we can't sign players, or players quit, or players don't give us their best effort, then we'll have to address it. As of now, that hasn't happened." [...] Last year, Jose Altuve, signed a guaranteed four-year, $12.5 million deal (the Astros can extend it to six years) that made him even more valuable than his statistics alone - players who are productive and inexpensive are the game's most valuable commodity. [...] They say that the defensive shifts and approach to using pitchers in the minors have been fruitful - saving runs with shifts and keeping young pitchers healthy. Baseball Info Solutions' John Dewan wrote on Twitter this month that the Astros already have saved seven shift runs - "similar to adding a 10th fielder who happens to be elite." If a minor league pitcher doesn't like the tandem rotation, too bad - he's still an employee. In the first month of the season, minor league pitchers threw every time out in a piggyback system, either starting ahead of or relieving behind a partner pitcher. Now the pitchers throw some games in that form and some in a traditional way, where they are considered the game's lone starter. "I don't tell organizations what to do," said Boras, whose client Mark Appel had to be pulled out of the tandem rotation in April because he was having trouble adjusting. "But I think that the key thing in developing players, you have got to do what's best suited for the player." Astros pitching prospects talk of the tandem system - which is designed to keep them healthier, increase opportunity for pitchers in different roles and control workload - as something they tolerate rather than appreciate. "I would strongly disagree with that," defending American League Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer said of the concept of tandem pitching. "The more you can pitch above the 100-pitch threshold, you find out more about yourself. You find out about pitching deeper into games and having to (face) a lineup three, four times." Hard-throwing Astros prospect Mike Foltynewicz said in spring training he thought the tandem might have contributed to arm soreness last year. "It's OK," Class AA pitching prospect Brady Rodgers said. "Throwing every four days is, it's a little tough cause I like to have my rest with my arm, because you know, every arm only has so many bullets, so I don't want to try to waste any. … I'm not going to bash it."
Those quotes from Luhnow are interesting. From the very beginning, he was completely convicted in what he wanted to do with the organization. Didn't give a **** about what ol' bumpkins like Bud Norris thought about his methods. Being an Astros fan and also feeling in your gut that the McKinsey/PE type management is destructive is a conflicting feeling sometimes. I can see quite clearly that the McKinsey stuff worked on my favorite baseball team. That ruthless optimization stuff clearly has paid dividends.
The recent turn around of Kikuchi has made me a believer; Cole is another example, but Kikuchi, Brown, and even Spaghetti improvement this season shows that Cole was not a fluke.
If you needed any 2024 results to convince you the "Astros method" of pitching planning and development wasn't a fluke then you haven't been paying attention. Colin McHugh Dallas Keuchel Charlie Morton Ryan Pressly Will Harris I don't even know how many older Latin pitchers that other teams passed on multiple signing periods and signed for peanuts then became viable MLB pitchers. I'm sure I'm missing several. It has been beyond question for years.
No one should have been going into this season still on the fence about the Astros approach to pitching evaluation and development. We're going on a decade of success.
Ronel Blanco is still 2nd in AL ERA... Imagine if the likes of Lyles, Cosart, Norris, etc. were more receptive to input like Keuchel was...
I remember when Keutchel came up, and he wasn’t highly regarded outside of the Astros brass. I never thought he’d go on to be the staff ace for a few years. I thought he’d be a spot starter until the legit talent took over his spot in the rotation (though one thing Keuchel had going for him was he was an innings eater). And the machine managed to get an AL Cy young out of him. Unfortunately Keutchel played hardball with the Astros on contract negotiations, and the Astros bid him farewell; it was a bitter pill for Keuchel to realize he overpriced himself, and blamed the draft pick on the reason he didn’t have more suitors. With as many pitchers who’ve gone through the system with exemplary success ratees, the one thing constant is that if the Astros identify a pitcher and the pitcher acquiesces to the pitching staff, there is a very high chance that pitcher will find success as an Astros pitcher. Whitley is still young enough to have an extremely relevant career. And he’s always had the talent, now it seems he’s got the knowledge to squeeze out his true inner pitcher. The list is long and distinguished…. The Astros pitching program is as good as anyone’s.
I would not be shocked by this but if verlander rounds into shape and has a couple starts before the playoffs looking normal it's hard to not see him go game 1 or 2. I like separating he and Brown from consecutive starts since they have similar mechanics. Could see: Game 1: Verlander / Kikuchi Game 2: Framber / bullpen Game 3: Brown / Blanco Game 4: Arrighetti / bullpen Ultimately if Verlander is right, it's hard to imagine any decision looking bad.
