Seems like Blanco is already going back to the pen to rest his arm. Most likely how it is in the playoffs for him. Now will it be Kikuchi or Arrighetti coming out the pen, which I assume Kikuchi will get a start.
Just a reminder... playoffs are a different beast and games are managed entirely differently across the board. Starters that usually would go 6-7 go 4-5 if the game is tight, or there's traffic. (obviously if they're rolling, or theres a lead, you let them be). Teams will be very hesitant to let lineups see pitchers a third time. Teams are micro-analyzing pitch sequencing, tendencies, shuffling lineups accordingly. Likewise, while bullpens would be deployed with a pre-determined pecking order (that may change drastically for playoff purposes), all these teams start to get very familiar with all pitchers once they're seeing them everyday or every other day. Lastly, while fatigue not usually as bad with all the off days... the high pressure/amped up environment has these guys going 120% every pitch. Adrenaline masks a ton. But typically younger pitchers (Brown, Arighetti) may have a slew of mixed results. Hell, look at JV in his early Tigers days, back when he was winning both Cy young AND MVP's concurrently. The biggest advantage the Astros have is experience. Not just from a players standpoint but from a coaching staff standpoint. They know how things change and how to adjust to these formats and hopefully that will serve Brown/Spencer well.
If it happens, great. If it doesn't, or you have to exhaust your best pitchers to have a chance of it... and still don't get it... that would put them at a dis-advantage. Its a total mixed bag as to whether or not it hurts or helps since they went to this format. The good teams that lose after the bye says the time off hurts. The teams that get hot in part due to winning that first series have shown the ability to carry that through all the way to the WS. The Astros haven't lost a first round series since 2015 and that pre-dated this format. Its still relatively a flip of the coin. Thankfully, the Astros have a solid 4-5 guys who could each start a game 1 and you wouldn't feel dis-advantaged.
Best case scenario is to secure the bye prior to that series. The chances are, the division will be won, unless the Astros have a stretch of losing baseball. But Cleveland would also probably have to have at least a mediocre stretch and will be in a fight w/ Twins and/or Royals and need to keep fighting. Leading up to that series, the Guardians have 12 (of 22) games vs ChW, TB, Cin, and St.L. the other 10 are tougher, but the Astros would need to win 6 more than them in their own 22 games, to secure the bye prior to that series. If that happens the Astros are likely on a crazy roll, but most likely that series is a dog fight and they need to start their best pitchers. The benefit is they have 6 legitimate starters so will be OK even in the WC round but never ideal.
Pitchers of all ages have a slew of mixed results in the small sample size of pressure packed postseason. I'd be concerned with Arighetti based on his inconsistency (though he looks like an ace when he's on). Brown...he's likely as susceptible of a bad postseason as a comparable experienced pitcher. Even JV laid some eggs as an experienced pitcher. Urquidy may still be the alltime leader in World Series wins by an Astro despite not being very experienced. Really hard to determine who' going to falter except maybe the guys that depend on nibbling too much without stuff. The Astros advantage is they have some pitchers with some serious stuff...experienced or not.
And when your closer is completely unusable and blows 2 games in the World Series... use your fully capable 5th starter to piggyback with the 4th starter.
Agreed, it’s a crapshoot… the only thing that is consistent is experience and previous success. Which means nothing for future success (See Framber in 2020 vs 2021 vs 2022 vs 2023). John Smoltz was throwing shutout innings as a rookie in game 7 in a hostile environemnt.
The advantage here for the Astros compared to other teams is that its sort of unclear who their best pitchers are. If they are forced to use Verlander and Blanco to close out the season and are forced to instead other pitchers in the 1st round, I'm not sure if that's a net negative or net positive.
1. Framber Valdez (Game 1/5): As the ace, Framber makes sense to start Game 1 and 5. He’s your most reliable starter, and having him pitch twice in a series is crucial. 2. Hunter Brown (Game 2/6): Brown’s power and upside are valuable, especially if he’s locked in. If he’s on, he can dominate, making him a solid choice for these games. 3. Yusei Kikuchi (Game 3): Having Kikuchi on a short leash with Blanco ready is a smart move. Kikuchi has been effective for Astros but has been inconsistent before arrival. Keeping Blanco in reserve provides a safety net if Kikuchi struggles early. 4. Justin Verlander (Game 4): While Verlander has the experience, considering him on a short leash acknowledges his age and recent performance. Having Arrighetti ready adds a fresh, untested arm who could surprise opponents, but you might also consider giving Verlander a longer leash depending on his postseason track record. 5. Game 7 (All Hands on Deck): This is a logical approach for a winner-take-all game. Monitoring who is in the best form leading up to Game 7 and adjusting based on the matchups and game situations is critical.
Agreed, becomes just organic vs trying (and hoping) you can set it up perfectly. That being said, the way Framber is going (and some of these lefty heavy lineups, especially Baltimore), you’d want him pitching as many post-season games as possible vs anybody else.
Each round requires a different strategy also... and how much does the team have its own fate in its own hands for seeding. My thoughts: If the final series of the season matters, go all-in for getting the bye regardless if they need to rely on some 'help.' If it doesn't... Wildcard: Framber, Brown, Verlander in that order. Respects JV's experience as the anchor. Counter the platoon advantages with Arrighetti after Framber and Kikuchi after Brown. Blanco would be saved as the 6th inning arm for Verlander. Bullpen would ideally be Abreu-Pressly-Hader. Be heavy on the position players since playing the matchups matter since I don't think Singleton-Dubon-Meyers-Dezenzo-Whitcomb-Chas-Gamel-Heyward are players that fit in every in-game situation. ALDS: Ideally.... Framber, Brown, Kikuchi, Verlander. Enough differences from each day-to-day. 6th inning arm would be Blanco/Ort/Scott. Game 5 to Framber. ALCS/WS: Keep the rotation intact as much as possible -- no need for anyone to be on short rest. The rotation is 6 deep.
