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Post Deadline Evaluation - Trades Made/Not Made

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Htown Stros, Aug 9, 2021.

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After seeing how the deadline went, do you think he had the ability to spend "well" above the CBT??

  1. Yes

    9 vote(s)
    56.3%
  2. No

    7 vote(s)
    43.8%
  1. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

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    It's been roughly ten days after the dust has settled from the deadline and wanted to see if anyone else feels the way I do...

    We severely f***** up by not adding a bat (or two) and it could end up costing this team in the playoffs, or at this rate in the AL West race given we're back to only two games up on the As.

    It's absolutely absurd that Robel Garcia has started at least three games, much less the fact he is even on our 40 man roster...after the deadline. It's absolutely absurd we used Maldy at first base in a game where we had THREE hitters in the 7-9 slots all hitting UNDER .200 with no power, speed, or anything else worth a damn...after the deadline. It's absolutely absurd Taylor Jones is getting starts again, and even worse, in a game where we started Maldy and some Oakland Athletics 31 year-old AAAA reject...after the deadline.

    Before anyone responds with the argument that we're getting Bregman back, others are hurt with minor injuries, etc., I want you to consider these questions before you say anything...

    1) How many games over the past three years have we had everyone healthy in the lineup at the same time? 2) Do you really believe we will have everyone healthy in the lineup for the majority of the remainder of this season, and more importantly, healthy and starting in AND throughout the entire playoffs?

    If you think the chance is even remotely high please provide an explanation below...I would love to hear your thought process. Even if you are right and we begin the playoffs with everyone in the lineup completely healthy, which is ridiculous to bet on especially considering Bregman's injury has a high risk of flaring up again, you can't tell me having one of the players below, especially Marte, Schwarber, or Gallo, wouldn't be a huge upgrade over McCormick and that it's not even slightly upsetting given the fact how ridiculously CHEAP these bats were at the deadline. A few examples:
    • Kris Bryant was trade for a low-end SP prospect that didn't make either team's top 30 prospects and Alexander Canario, 21, who was batting .235 with nine home runs and 29 RBIs in 65 games for Class A San Jose - he was the Giants' ninth-ranked prospect (Cubs 7th)
    • Nelson Cruz was traded for the Rays 10th best prospect (Twins 8th)
    • Anthony Rizzo was traded for the Yankees 10th best prospect (Cubs 8th)
    • Kyle Schwarber was traded for what is now the Nationals 11th best prospect
    • Joey Gallo (under team control next year too) was traded for the Rangers now 7th, 8th and 18th prospects
    • Starling Marte was trade for Jesus Luzardo, who has a 7 ERA over 45 innings this year (and it's not from being unlucky - the advanced stats back up how bad he has been), and IMO is equivalent to us trading them Josh James
    I could go on and on but I think y'all get the point. Personally, I knew the bats went cheap, but until I actually looked up the prospects these teams were receiving for ALL STAR caliber bats, I didn't realize exactly how CHEAP they were in terms of prospects. This leads me to wonder if going above the tax threshold truly was on the table...because if it was then Click deserves a D or a F grade for the moves he made at the deadline, especially when you consider our starting pitching is a huge question mark.

    When you combine the starting pitching with an offense that has multiple sub .200 hitters starting on a daily basis right now...it's pretty concerning and frustrating that we not only let the deadline go by without getting a bat, but we traded away TWO of them that we desperately could use right about now. I assumed at the time that we didn't beat the Athletics offer for Marte because we were happy with Straw...but nope we then traded him to the Indians after the fact in a trade that still doesn't make sense (I am high on Maton too) especially considering we could have traded for Marte and THEN made the Straw to the Indians in that deal.

    For those wondering how Marte has done since joining the Athletics...how about a .425/.465/.625 slash line
    with two bombs, 8 runs, 6 RBI and SEVEN! stolen bases over 9 games. We
     
    #1 Htown Stros, Aug 9, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2021
  2. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

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    FYI I found this to be interesting/concerning...looking into Chas' stats against the Red Sox and White Sox (no AB against TBR and only 5 against NYY) this season, he's hit .182/.286/.182 in 14 PA and .158/.200/.158 in 20 PA in the games against the two teams, respectively. Additionally, he hit .143/.143/.143 in his combined 14 PA against the Giants and LAD during the past road trip. In summary, in nearly 50 PA against the teams we'll need to go through to win the WS, Chas has hit about as well as Robel Garcia has during the season...

    Yeah, no one can tell me we didn't s*** the bed by not trading for Marte or whoever you liked in the OF that was available...doesn't really matter, they all are upgrades.
     
  3. MrBear1

    MrBear1 Contributing Member

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    You lost me comparing Jesus Luzardo to Josh James
     
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  4. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

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    You lost me at reading my post and coming away with that as your main takeaway.

    If you're going to be THAT guy, at least counter with some actual substance (e.g. do you enjoy watching Robel Garcia and Taylor Jones?) telling me how I'm so far off-based instead of that idiotic, sarcastic response.

    FWIW I never said they were equal prospects (not that you can even call James one anymore) and the reason I compared the two is due to Luzardo being a hard thrower with trash secondary pitches and therefore IMO will likely end up in the bullpen. In other words, I think he's going to be a Josh James (i.e. hence the comparison) type player personally and clearly the Athletics (and likely other teams) felt that way as well given Marte isn't a better player than any of those listed above aside from Cruz.

    But hey since you've probably watched Luzardo pitch every game of his MILB and MLB career...I would love to hear your take on him? It would be great to know that the Athletics traded away a future ace?

    P.S. - Replace Josh James with Forrest Whitley...that way you'll have a better match with the prospect rankings from all the experts when you perform your Google search.
     
    #4 Htown Stros, Aug 9, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2021
  5. Htown Legend

    Htown Legend Member

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    Alex Bregman is the Messiah. We will have a 6+ game lead in the division by the end of the month. Book it.
     
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  6. TWS1986

    TWS1986 SPX '05, UH' 19

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    My qualms with the trade deadline were not adding an ace. A bat, we have lots of bats. They just need to be healthy. I am concerned with our lineups though I won't lie.
     
  7. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    The only one of those deals I think would have been good for Houston would have been the Bryant deal (which would have been something like Barber and Solomon), and that would only have made sense if they felt comfortable using him in CF. I would not have wanted to give up Whitley for Marte, or something like Nova, Barber, and Solomon for Gallo, although I wouldn’t have been angry about those deals. I definitely wouldn’t have wanted Cruz, Rizzo, or Schwarber, as that would have meant a regular OF of Brantley/Tucker/Alvarez which would be pretty brutal defensively.

    The Astros lineup will be fine and reacting to a handful of games is usually a bad idea. Robel Garcia is the only guy on the roster I think doesn’t belong on a contending team. McCormick, Meyers, and Jones all have significant upside and could catch fire at any moment. Jacob Wilson is probably similar to Garcia but I’m willing to deal with that for 3-4 games until Bregman comes back.

    The real “need” that wasn’t addressed was an intimidating ace starting pitcher. It appears there was only 1 of those available (Scherzer) and I am glad Houston didn’t pay that price (which I’m not even sure they could have done since they don’t have prospects on par with Ruiz and Gray).

    When healthy this team has one of the best lineups of all time. They now have an extremely deep bullpen. And they have 4-5 MoR SP. There’s a reason fangraphs has them with the 2nd highest odds of winning the WS.
     
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  8. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    It was a great buyers market for bats, but we have quality bats at 7 positions. There were no improvements to be had at catcher, leaving just CF, which really only Marte fits. Bryant is the only one that helps with the utility man role.

    The team was always likely to stay under the tax threshold to help with next season's budget, and they definitely weren't going to do it to upgrade the bench, particularly when we have a quality utility man in Diaz.
     
  9. Screaming Fist

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    Gallo is a very good OF (+27 DRS across 20/21) and would be a big upgrade over Chas/Meyers. Obviously there's no way to know for certain, but I think Luhnow would have reached for a rental bat like Gallo/Marte.
     
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  10. MrBear1

    MrBear1 Contributing Member

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    Wow, what a post.

    Luzardo is 5 years younger, has an extra year of control, and has a much higher ceiling. He also carries a much different pedigree than does James.

    I don't need to google anything, I am very familiar with all of these players.
     
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  11. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

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    As I'm sure you're aware, the issue with adding an ace was the price in terms of prospects needed to bring in one of the few "aces" that were available at the deadline. In comparison to the prospects given up for the bats that were traded, the starting pitchers were significantly more expensive as evidenced by the Jays giving up the 16th and 68th top prospects in ALL of baseball. FYI that 16th prospect was Austin Martin, the 5th overall pick in the 2020 draft.

    Therefore, aside from the fact that we likely didn't have a package that could even remotely compete with that offer (or the Dodgers offer for Scherzer and Turner) given our lack of prospects/assets as a whole compared to 20+ other MLB teams, trading the talented prospects/assets we do have would have turned a relatively bare farm system into likely the worst system in the MLB. Without a steady flow of Chas McCormick's, players who are average to above average MLB players, making the minimum and offsetting the salaries of Bregman, LMJ, Altuve, etc., you end up with a bunch of Robel Garcia's on your active roster and starting in your lineup as we aren't the Dodgers and can't afford to pay the amounts necessary to fill holes in free agency.

    In summary, this is why I didn't have an issue with the route we went regarding picking up the bullpen arms that we did - IMO the Graveman trade was one of the best "steals" as he's been as good as Kimbrel, who the Sox paid handsomely to obtain.

    Obviously we have a lot of bats - no matter what happens moving forward, the lineup likely will continue to be one of the best in baseball at scoring runs on average, but given we didn't get that ace we all wanted, IMO we should have upgraded the roster/lineup and gotten a bat given the cost of doing so was reasonable and wouldn't have mortgaged a farm. This would have not only given us a better lineup overall but provided an insurance policy/depth for times like this past week when everyone seemingly is getting banged up with minor injuries forcing us to start players who shouldn't even be on a MLB roster. That's inexcusable IMO but maybe I'm just being too demanding...
     
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  12. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

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    Did you even read my response? Since you have trouble with reading comprehension, I took the liberty of making it a pretty color with bolded text for the key points...

    FWIW I never said they were equal prospects (not that you can even call James one anymore) and the reason I compared the two is due to Luzardo being a hard thrower with trash secondary pitches and therefore IMO will likely end up in the bullpen.

    Even if you think he's still a great/top prospect, the other players were all traded for Freudis Nova type value prospects...which in case you missed the point of my post, that is my point.
     
    #12 Htown Stros, Aug 9, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2021
  13. MrBear1

    MrBear1 Contributing Member

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    yep
     
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  14. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

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    Your last five posts prior to these riveting ones:
    1. "Meyers ever going to get a start" - he's already 25 years old and has a career .791 OPS in the minors. Outside of this year in a hitter's league where players like Toro put up Bonds like numbers, he's been trash - last minor league action prior to this season was in A/AA in 2019 where he hit a whopping .249 with a .724 OPS (FYI in AA he actually had a sweet .570 OPS over ~90 ABs).
    2. "Oh sweet, another braindead sheep poster. Did we really need another???" What a high value add this post is...
    3. "You don't know how contracts work, do ya?' See #2 above...
    4. "Jake Meyers SZN starts today" - LOL see #1 above...if hitting under .200 is the "SZN" that started, it's well underway!
    5. "Buston or Reynolds I am hoping..." This one is comical to me because you are basically agreeing with me by stating we should have traded for an OF...
    I don't know everyone would do without your significant contributions to these boards...

    Edit: I guess I should have compared Jake Meyers to Luzardo and perhaps you would have graced us with your opinion on the deadline moves made by Click...
     
  15. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

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    If it sounded like I didn't like McCormick that's not what I intended as IMO he was the better option both short and long term in comparison to Straw. If he's batting 8th following by Maldy, I have ZERO problems with that lineup...IMO it's the best in baseball.

    That said, I just don't see how you can have confidence in this lineup being healthy all at once given their history. I'd love to know how many games since the day Yordan came up in the 2019 season that Gurriel, Bregman, Altuve, Brantley, Correa, and Yordan have ALL been in the lineup at the same time...my guess is it's not many and I'd probably bet on less than 33% of the total games played.

    As for Jones and Meyers, while I have a little more hope for Taylor Jones than Jake Meyers, neither of them should be on the active roster, much less getting ABs right now in meaningful games/innings right now. Jones has benefitted from being older than everyone at his level in the minors so he's put up some decent stat lines. Meyers has had one season (this one) where he put up numbers that weren't awful, especially for his age/level at the time. Both scream AAAA players.

    Assuming you watched those games against the Giants, did you notice the depth they had? Neither of those players are even sniffing ABs on that team and most likely not on the Jays or LAD as well...

    Edit: I agree on Bryant being the best option/value - even if he played a serviceable CF/RF that would have been worth it because he could be playing 3B right now in Bregman's absence, played 1B instead of Maldy the other night, and given that flexibility, he inherently would have provided the depth we needed IMO to have the best chance at winning another one. FYI he's already played 3 games in LF, 1 in CF, and 6 at 3B for the Giants so far...
     
    #15 Htown Stros, Aug 9, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2021
  16. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Gallo plays RF though. I also think we'd have a hard time going back to guy that strikes out that much.

    Byron Buxton was the absolute perfect fit, but obviously he didn't end up getting traded.
     
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  17. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Totally disagree with this take. Age relative to league matters an awful lot in the lower levels and even through AA, but at AAA virtually all of the players are near major league caliber; there are no guys there feasting on developing pitchers, as there really aren’t very many pitchers in AAA still developing. Once a guy reaches AAA he is either waiting on a big league opportunity or just doing some fine tuning. So Jones’ AAA numbers show what Houston sees in him, but also his deeper stats (exit velocities) point to him being a potential legit middle of the order big league hitter. Jones may very well end up a AAAA guy, but his projections don’t “scream” that. For a guy who slots in as the Astros’ 15th position player, he’s excellent; it’s just unfortunate (and unlikely) that they’ve had to count on him this week.

    As for Meyers, it’s flat out ridiculous to say he “screams AAAA”. It is generally accepted that he is by far the best defensive outfielder in Houston’s system. That combined with the numbers he put up in AAA project him as a solid 4th OF at worst but potentially a star player in the majors. Go take a look at guys who play up-the-middle positions who post a >140 wRC+ in >200 AAA PA; it’s a short and impressive list. There’s a reason Click made the bold move to trade Straw, and he said as much that Meyers’ excellent performance/development forced Click to make room for him.

    *Edit to add: here are the CF who have posted a 140+ wRC+ in AAA since 2015 (min 200 pa):
    Aaron Hicks
    Mitch Haniger
    Byron Buxton
    Jackie Bradley
    Khalil Lee (Mets top prospect)
    Jaren Duran (Red Sox top prospect)
    Edward Olivares (Royals prospect)
    Jake Meyers (Astros prospect)

    So that’s 4 guys that went on to be stars in the majors, and 4 guys who are still prospects. If you raise the threshold to 300 pa, the list is just Haniger, Buxton, Bradley, and Meyers.
     
    #17 Snake Diggit, Aug 9, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2021
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  18. tellitlikeitis

    tellitlikeitis Canceled
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    tired: complaining about bullpen
    wired: complaining about bench
     
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  19. MrBear1

    MrBear1 Contributing Member

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    You must be really bored, you literally went and pulled up my last 5 posts? LOLOLOL

    Your obvious posts pointing out obvious information that most of us either already know or can research on our own are such a significant contribution to the board!

    Regarding Meyers, nobody said he is the next Ken Griffey Jr. He is an elite defender in CF who has yet to get a start in said position after the trade involving Myles Straw. Yes, like Chas McCormick he has been a mediocre hitting minor league outfielder (he is actually a year younger than Chas however) but unlike McCormick he at least brings elite CF defense (more of a need on this team with our stacked offense but sometimes bad corner outfield defense with Brantley/Yordan).

    Is this post better? Hopefully enough to prevent another tantrum?
     
  20. tellitlikeitis

    tellitlikeitis Canceled
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    "For those wondering how Marte has done since joining the Athletics...how about a .425/.465/.625 slash line with two bombs, 8 runs, 6 RBI and SEVEN! stolen bases over 9 games. We"

    We what
     
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