Not that I'm confident going up against the Lakers, but I think going 0-4 against them in the regular season is blown out of proportion to some extent. Let's break down the 4 regular season games real quick and dirty... Game 1: Lakers win 111-82 in LA Shane Battier is out with foot injury Ron Artest goes 2-11 Tracy McGrady, hobbles to a 3 point, 1-11 performance Although it was a blow out, it was only a 7 point deficit going into the 4th. Game 2: Lakers win 100-105 in Houston Battier is back in the lineup for this one Ron Artest is out McGrady is out We have Rafer Alston going 5-14... Rockets were up 4 going into the 4th and had a 1 point lead with :47 to go. Game 3: Lakers win 96-102 in Houston First game with the "real" Rockets team (post-trade deadline) Lamar Odom out for suspension Rockets up 3 going into the 4th and it's a tie game with 2:11 to go. Game 4: Lakers win 81-93 in LA Second game with the "real" Rockets team (post-trade deadline) Everyone is healthy and playing aside from Bynum Tie game at half and Rockets only down 5 heading into the 4th. It appears to me that the Rockets have had great opportunities to take every single one of the games they played against the Lakers this season, especially at home, but just didn't finish nearly as strong as the Lakers did. Maybe, just maybe a focused, playoff tested Rockets team will bring the proper killer instinct to this series and actually finish a game the right way against these guys. Getting swept 4-0 in the regular season is usually pretty damning, but on average the Rockets were down by just over a point heading into the 4th...so there were opportunities there for sure...
One thing is for sure, there are a lot of knee jerk reactions from both losses and wins on this forum.
My thoughts: Bynum isn't full speed, but may be a little better after 4 full days off. He's not really comparable to Odom or Pryzbilla - more athletic than either of them, but lacks Pryzbilla's veteran savvy. He's a better matchup for Yao unless he starts getting active on the boards and off the ball. The Lakers lineup of Gasol-Odom-Bryant-Ariza-Fisher could be much more troubling for Yao, in the same way that the Jazz constantly gave him fits. He has an advantage on offense, but becomes a liability when both Gasol and Odom can pull him away from the basket. Nothing has given Yao more trouble in his career than that. Odom was blistering in round 1, and he can really wreck havoc if he breaks loose on us. I'd personally suggest using Artest to frustrate him and employ Battier on Kobe. Artest's physical style can get under the skin of a guy like Odom, but as we saw recently, it can take Bryant to a dangerous STFU level. Luke Walton's ankle injury could be a helpful break. Bryant may not wear down much, but Ariza may not be able to go at Artest/Battier effectively for big minutes. The PG matchup is a huge key for us. Brooks/Lowry can and have to come up big against Fisher/Vujacic for us to have a chance here.
1) LA plays faster. Portland never really made us pay for our mistakes, LA destroys teams in transition. 2) Kobe and Ariza are so much better defensively than Roy and Batum. Artest is going to struggle in this series, guaranteed. 3) Odom. The man is a mismatch for anyone on our roster. They'll play him at PF. Scola cannot guard him and we don't want to see Artest or Battier at the 4.
Why can't we put Artest on Odom and Battier on Kobe? Artest has a good history of mixing it up with bigger players. Heck, Duncan hates playing him.
And have Von Wafer at SG? That lineup would get killed on the boards. Scola and Yao are brutally efficient and good rebounders. Artest is brutally inefficient. The speed frontcourt of Odom/Gasol throws our lineups off-balance.
Differences between Portland and L.A. 1) L.A. will not choke and stiff up like Portland did in game 1 and 6. They are not young and scared. 2) Yao can't guard Gasol but he can guard Aldridge and Oden easily. Gasol will face up with Yao and tear him a new one. He has done this each game this year. Our 3+4 NEEDS to help from the weak side. I'll take damage from Ariza. 3) Scola can't guard Odom. He is going to get schooled. 4) Kobe is much harder to guard than Roy. He has a higher basketball I.Q. due to his experience. So overall, we have to contain Odom and Gasol. If we can do that, the games will be much closer. Kobe will be Kobe.
The only way we will beat LA if RA out coaches Jackson and the rockets executes game plans to perfection. LA is just too deep and too good, but they have shown to have mental lapses when they played against Jazz. The Key to this series is the Black Mamba. The two home games against us this year he just took over. No one has a better ablility in the game to do so on someone elses gym. Not Bron, not wade! Kobe is lethal and Artest and Battier would have to play the best defense of their live to slow him enough in this series. You are right in that players like Roy really prepared us for the next series, but when Kobe gets locked in, tripleteams could not stop him. Ask UTAH in game 4, Kobe was not human!!!! I also believe that Gasol is better defensively than Aldridge, so Yao may not be played as physical but he will see better defense. Speaking of Aldridge, I believe this guy already has a better jump shot than KG, and with him developing a better low post game and better defense, Blazers will have 2 guys capable of droping 40 on teams each night. The guys jumper does not even draw iron wow. If we can somehow pull off this upset, and hope Denver beats Dallas (Terry and Dirk are rocket killers) WE CAN WIN IT ALL. DENVER and CLEAVELAND cannot beat us in a 7 game series
I totally agree and have seen how close these lakers/rockets games actually are.. relative to how they seemed. The difference in win/loss will ultimately be determined by how our young point guards react.. taper off or killer instinct.. i hope brooks develops the latter. and the refs will hurt when we play in LA.. a lot!
Cool, thanks for breaking that down. While we were in the game going into the 4th both times we had the current squad, LA seems to have that extra gear they can go to in the 4th (particularly Kobe, of course). We will need to find that extra gear this series.
For the record, since I see several guys being wrong, our point guard rotation is Fisher/Brown. Farmar and Sasha won't see minutes there unless there is a injury.
I hope the Rockets play like this series is an NBA Finals series. IF they do, I give them a chance to beat the Lakers. But they must play a near-perfect game every time. No sloppy passing, no brain f****s, defensive rotations absolutely must be right and on time. I suppose you can say that the Lakers have more talent than the Rockets, but I think the 93-94 Rockets won because they played as a cohesive unit. We called them Hakeem and the seven dwarfs. Who knows whether they could have beaten the Sonics in the WCF? It's just too bad we couldn't have another playoff round of games before we play them. The younger players need more playoff experience. Oh, well.
I wouldn't discount Dallas. They are playing well now. I expect the Dallas/Denver series to be interesting.
