I know last year a lot was said to Portland's hot start and many pointed to their soft schedule to start the season. They had amazing health last year (I have no problems with that at all they've been just as franchise player injury plagued as the Rockets) which also help contribute to their amazing start. I was looking at the standings last night and was amazed to see that they were 15-4 again this year -- I havent heard too much about the Blazers this season compared to last year. I knew they signed some key guys to their bench in Kaman and Blake but I was surprised and impressed But then I looked at their schedule and wasn't as impressed. 12 of their 19 games have been at home this year. 7 on the road - that 5 game difference in terms of home vs road is the largest in the league right now. No other team in the west as played as many home games as the Blazers have and only the Raptors have played 12 home games thus far. (whats crazy is that the Bulls have played 6 home games while 13!! road games so far - they got screwed early on) As of this morning the 7 road games is the fewest played by any team this season. So a home heavy schedule to start the season I always believe is a big factor in getting off to a good start. It allows for more practices to take place and better chemistry to be built. Coaches can work more on development. Right now Portland's conference record is 7-4. That means of their 15 wins more than half have come against the Eastern Conference. I do commend the Blazers for beating up on the East - its something every West team should do. Of the projected playoff teams in the west right now only the Mavs have played more eastern conference teams so far this season. (the mavs also have played 2 more games compared to portland) 7-4 against the west is not a bad winning percentage at all to be honest - it is better than their percentage last season within the conference. (.63 vs .59) Lets see who Portland played though in the west so far: Their Ws: Thunder (first game of season w/o Durant) Dallas (blew them out) - good win Denver x3 Pelicans Wolves So of their 7 wins - 3 came against Denver one of the bottom teams in the west, and the Wolves. Really they only had one big statement game against a playoff team and that was Dallas. That game too was at home - they have yet to have a big win on the road. Their Losses: Golden State Sacramento Clippers Grizzlies The GS and Grizz games were in Portland. So right now Portland is 1-3 against current western conference playoff teams. You could say 1-4 as the Kings are still in the hunt for that 8th spot. Even with the Eastern conference teams they played - only 2 have been of note -- Cleveland and Chicago. They killed Chicago but the Bulls played that night without Rose, Gasol or Hinrich. I am not sure how much you could read into that game. They destroyed the Cavs at home early in the season which was impressive. Looking ahead they embark on a 5 game road trip now -- but the teams they are going to face: New York Detroit Minnesota Chicago Indiana They should finish 4-1 on the trip really only losing to the bulls. They do have a tough 6 game stretch after that - facing the Spurs twice (home/away) Bucks (home) and then Rockets, Pelicans and Thunder all on the road. It will be interesting to see how they perform during that 6 game stretch. (Hopefully by the time the face the Rockets we'll have some if not all of our guys back I pray) To me while Portland is still a good team (they are top 10 in Off and Def Rtg) and is a playoff team I feel they will come down to earth as soon as they stop feasting on the east and start having to play against the top teams of the west who they haven't fared well against so far this season. i dont know if you can say they've regressed but I do believe they'll be fighting for the 6-8 seeds again with Dallas, Phoenix, Sacramento and OKC if they can get hot now that everyone is back. (top 5 being GS, Clips, Spurs, Grizz, Rockets) What are your thoughts so far on Portland?
I predicted that they would be #1 in the west for one reason: they have the easiest division in the west and thus the easiest schedule of all western conference teams.
Everyone plays everyone. The mythical "easy" schedule thing is silly in the NBA. Still play SA, MEM, HOU, NO, DAL, OKC (with KD and Russ; still formidable, even if they are dealing with a crap record), LAC, PHX, and SAC 3-4 times. This isn't college sports. Everyone sees everyone. There shouldn't much "thought" about anyone right now. You don't figure out teams until around the ASB.
Portland was good coming into the season. Why can't it be "they are doing what they are supposed to do"? Surprise: They don't suck!
There are so many factors than the simple minded argument, everybody plays everybody. It just depends when you might play that team, meaning is the team you are playing fully healthy, are they playing the 5th game of 7 game stand versus the team being at the start of tough schedule, etc etc.
That's fine, and very understandable. But how long does one use that argument? You don't win 55-60 games and earn a top seed because of these factors you're mentioning. Shouldn't one attribute that to being a really, really good team?
first off, this isn't true anymore, after the last expansion. We play more in Division games than teams outside our division. Southwest teams play 4 games in Division, but LAC/Portland/OKC etc don't have to play SA, Dallas, Hou, Mem and Davis 4 games, but only 3. Since we are by far the most difficult Division in the NBA, teams from our division will have the highest opponent Win%/SOS at the end of the year. that will happen. Our division will have the hardest SOS at the end of the year, and NOLA will end up with highest SOS, as worst team in our Division. Not really even a prediction, just math. Also, you totally missed the point of the thread. The_Yoyo is saying how SOS is a way to measure W/Ls throughout the year. He's saying Portland is not what their current record is this year, because of soft schedule. Just like last year, they will start losing a lot of games as soft schedule turns very difficult.
The_Yoyo, Thanks for the post. I think me or someone did a similar post in the GARM last year back in January or something. you should check out Portland's last 11 games or so last year, when they fell apart and we overtook them to gain home court.
They'd be a good team in any division though. They'd make the playoffs anywhere in the West in my opinion. It's probably just the difference of a 3-5 seed and a 6-8 seed which in the West sometimes doesn't mean all that much.
POR's falling apart (heypartner brought this up in his previous post) last season at one point, I'd say, was more due to poor depth after LaMarcus got hurt down the stretch. Luckily, he came back, and they didn't drop to 6th. They finished 8-1 in their last 9 when he returned. They did, however, suck balls in that 5 games in 7 nights road trip they had vs. DAL, HOU, SA, NO and MEM (1-4). I don't know; guess we simply differ on opinion when it comes to SOS and pro sports.
Excellent post, TYY. The Blazers look to me no better than they were last year. If they stay healthy I expect them to end up seeded 5-7 in the playoffs. I still see the top four as being: Warriors Spurs Memphis Rockets With the next four: Clips Blazers Mavs Suns KD and Westbrook will have be watching round one this year from Hooters.
I think their schedule has helped, but it's not like they're sucking on the road so far. They could wind up winning as many if not more games as last season assuming they stay healthy.
In my opinion Portland has been one of the luckiest teams in the league the past two seasons... they have been able to trot out there at full strength every night and i dont know how long that can last.
It's not an opinion... it's a fact that strength of schedule varies in the NBA. Everybody plays everybody at least twice. But that's it. For example... a Western conference team plays 4 times against everybody in their division. They also play 4 games against six conference opponents, and 3 games against the remaining four conference opponents. Then they play every team in the East twice. So no, the schedules are not the same. That's not even taking into consideration the quality of opponents a team plays on back to backs.
btw: are division winners guaranteed HCA, or does record dictate that. Here's a scenario, say SA, LAC and Port are division winners, but Hou and Memphis have better records than Port Southwest: 60 - 22 SA (#1) 56 - 26 Hou (#3) 55 - 27 Memphis (#5) Pacific: 57 - 25 LAC (#2) Northwest: 54 - 28 Portland (#4) Portland is guaranteed a top 4 seed, as Div winner but do they get HCA over Memphis? Note: this is different than last year, because OKC won the NW, so Portland had no special Division winner rights.
Record determines HC. Remember 10 years ago when Sacramento tanked hard so they could face Seattle and possibly have home court because of the then silly rule of top 3 must be division winners. I think it happened recently in the East too where the 5th seed had home court because the Atlantic division was so crappy at the time
