The average according to 538 was 8%. The polls are a bigger miss than 2016,. The overall profile might be worse than Hilary. He might win by skin of his teeth.
This has been a consistent pattern since 2020. It was supposed to be a close race, within 1 point (+/- 4.4%), even with the latest poll, and Suozzi easily defeated Pilip (by ~8pts with 93% counted). The Democrats have consistently outperformed the polls, and this is another example of that trend. Polls have had 2-3 years to correct this mismatch, and they haven't been able to. Maybe there is a silent group (Dobbsers) out there that isn't poll-able. New York 3rd District : U.S. House : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight
This went under the radar of the media. I couldn't find any polling, but still, I think this is yet another piece of evidence that there is a strong pull against today's Republicans. Republicans' Huge Underperformance in Oklahoma Raises Alarm Bells https://www.newsweek.com/oklahoma-special-election-district39-republican-trump-1869840 Published Feb 14, 2024 at 8:57 AM EST A Republican winning an Oklahoma special election on Tuesday night in a deep red area by just five points has sparked concerns about the GOP's performance in November's races. Republican Erick Harris won House District 39's special election by 261 votes, beating Democrat Regan Raff into second place (50 percent to 45 percent). The election was triggered following former state Representative Ryan Martinez's resignation last September after pleading guilty to a felony offense of being in physical control of a vehicle while intoxicated. While the result is not likely not an indication of the outcome of the 2024 presidential election in Oklahoma—where Donald Trump beat Joe Biden by 33 points in 2020—Harris' marginal victory in the Edmond district which Trump won by 26 points in the last election has raised concerns.
a little more nuance going into the final 2 weeks, Hillary was leading PA/MN/WI/MI, but inching up but still behind in Fla. her team decided to go for broke in Fla; effectively. running bare bones operatons in PA/MN/WI/MI Trump campaign did the opposite Trump was campaigning non-stop in PA/MN/WI/MI towards running an inside straight this was the second time in a row that Hillary's presidential campaign gifted the election to the opposition; the first time she had gifted Obama the Demo nomination.
