Poll: Top Pick or Play-in Tourney?

To be fair his other argument is that even if Green becomes a superstar, the team will need another one to become title contenders in the future.

Which probably is correct but I'm not going to sacrifice the development of my young core on the risk of the draft when I have cap space and draft capital especially if the Nets blow up in the next couple seasons.

I'm going to get that second superstar through a trade or a free agent signing. And it doesn't have to be next season when we aquire that second superstar. It can be two years from now when Green and Sengun are at the ripe old age of 21 and Smith at 20.

This team has PLENTY of time to aquire a second superstar.

 

You don't need to assume anything, I have already made it clear multiple times in this thread, my preference is they are bad.

That said, I am not instructing my coach to intentionally lose games.

I am instructing my coach to prioritize development, IE not run plays which have the highest chance of success, but rather plays which the core players need to improve upon. For instance, lets say Jabari is a know bad ball handler, instead of banishing him to the corner to shoot open threes only, I might let him try and drive, knowing full well he is not going to be very good at it, until he gets many many reps.

 

We do not have immense draft capital, not sure why people think this.

 

exactly…there are multiple ways to build a contender or acquire superstars…history has already shown that superstars will be interested in Houston if there’s a superstar already on the roster

but a rapidly progressing young core is meaningless because the championship handbook says u can only win one the tank dreamer way

 

bad example that this hypothetical isn’t even about…

this is a bunch of 1st and 2nd year players we’ve just drafted progressing rapidly causing the team to overachieve while having cap space and trade assets, not the owner forcing the GM to make win-now moves to lock the franchise into mediocrity…

 

Locking one self into mediocracy happens more often when players who have already shown their ceiling are trusted with massive contracts or are traded for with no underlying core knowing that player's ceiling is not "first option on a title contenders" just so the owner can reap some.short term benefits on a few mediocre seasons as the 7th and 8th seed with a entertaining all-star level player but nothing more.

I don't think I have to repeat the age of the players we are discussing here. If in this hypothetical the Rockets with 21 years olds are making play in tournaments or are approaching .500 ball(38+ wins) you have found a core not worth tanking for anymore. That rarely happens.

The Rockets might break some records for something along the lines of "youngest average age for players with the top 5 minutes played per game on a team" at some point in this season. That's how young this team is. Outliers like Gordon and Boban are inflating the average age of the team. I guess my overall redundant point is "this team is stupid young" and it would be very rare for a team this young to win that many games.

That's why it's a stupid hypothetical. Because it ain't going to happen anyways.

 

I am suggesting the idea that a young team, whose win total increases by 15 over one, automatically means they have obtain a superstar is foolish.

8 players could take small leaps.

Rookies could come in as a baseline above replacement level.

 

We have seen teams adding veterans, making trades of draft capital, and using up cap space to get to play in before to get to the treadmill of mediocrity. I don't see anyone prescribing an activity that locks themselves into the treadmill of mediocrity.

The Rockets will have cap space for 2 max players available in 2023 and 2024 if Rockets punt it a year. The Rockets still have all the Nets picks. The Rockets will still have a lottery pick provided they don't make the playoffs with about an 4-8% of getting a better pick than if they finished worse. The likeliest outcome of the young players being good enough for the play in is having two incredible young allstars and drafting someone like Cam Whitmore instead of drafting someone like Dillon Mitchell.

 

I think there's a misunderstanding of what those of us want/hope. We hope our young guys to be good sooner more than them to be bad one more year so that we can get another top pick. If they can't win this season and we are in the high lottery again, so be it. I'll take a high pick.

Think about this. If this group of VERY YOUNG players can get to 40+ wins THIS SEASON, how promising is that! That will be almost a sure thing that we will be a contender soon. Wouldn't you want that over another blind chance of a pick? And don't forget we still have a truck load of the Nets picks/swaps to build around these guys. And the Nets are looking to implode any minute.

Let's look at the other scenario, maybe a more likely scenario. Green becomes a border line all star. Sengun looks promising but still has a lot of holes in his game. Jabari struggles to be consistent on the offensive side. Tari shows flashes but is erratic. KPJ is KPJ. It looks exciting but does this team give you a lot of confidence that they will turn into a championship contender? Now let's say we end up a bottom 5 team. What are the chances we get a guy who will become the centerpiece of a championship team?

 

I'm not saying that. I'm looking at the odds and odds are much more likely getting 1-2 players exceeding expectations greatly than 8 small 1.5-win bumps (3 of those guys won't even be in the rotation) as not everyone will have the ball an equal amount of the time. If you are going to pick the worst possible outcome for a team to make the play in, assume whoever the Rockets draft is the absolute worst.

Even in the 8 small leaps scenario..it is 8 small leaps over what is expected to finish with about 23-25 wins. Considering the Rockets will have 6 young guys in the rotation, 1.5 wins over expectation is huge for future projection. For Green, that would turn the expected 2.5 win bump to 4 wins by 538. I'm expecting Rockets win about 25 games with Green having a 4-5 win bump (i.e., I expect usage close to his end of the year which will likely hamper others). A small bump over my prediction for Green would put him pretty close to that top chart. Also, if Smith and Eason come in producing 1.5 wins each more than expected, that would put them in the Scottie Barnes and Evan Mobley value for future performance.

 

Good, because that is what I am arguing against.

 

If the Rockets win 35 games, I'll be both shocked and pissed, but more pissed than shocked.

 

Then you are for the Rockets making the play in with a young team over tanking under the most likely scenarios (e.g., Eric Gordon averaging 40 ppg would not be one of these scenarios or that improvement over what is expected is spread to guys that aren't young). Provided the Rockets don't trade young players/draft capital for veterans to make play, teams like the Cavaliers last season are what is normal for a team that goes from 20-something wins to 40-something wins behind the backs of young players.

Granted, I thought the Cavaliers were stupid to trade a first for LeVert. The trade for Mitchell really locks them to their current core (i.e., if something goes wrong for them, they could end up on treadmill of mediocrity [e.g., Mitchell leaves when he's a FA]). The Rockets would be in a significantly better position if they make play in behind Green, Smith, Sengun, and/or Tari developing better than expected than the Cavaliers as they have more future draft picks and likely of better quality, have more young players, and will have cap space for two max players. Though the Cavaliers are in a good, but risky position.

Yes, it could fall apart, but I'd rather take chances on a young playin team with cap space and valuable picks than likely having the 6th or 7th pick instead of the 12th.

Granted, I think Rockets win about 25 games despite thinking Green plays well. I also can't think of a young team that went from 20 wins to 40 wins behind young talent (without making stupid trades for veterans at deadline) that then sucked going forward.

 

I don't disagree with you about the likelihood of what will transpire with a very young core. This thread is about what you want, not what you think will happen. I definitely want a young team jumping to unexpected winning than getting a chance to get another unproven young player.

BTW, while I haven't been really following the potential prospects of the coming draft. What I have heard so far is mostly two guys, Wemby and Scoot. So is it going to be a two-player draft? (We had two consecutive 3.5-player drafts and we got in the top 3 each time.) What are the chances of getting one of them even if we are a sub-20 wins team?