Another good analysis on Tankathon: https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength They have OKC, Lakers, Spurs, Magic and Charlotte all with tougher schedules ahead of us. Tier 1: Celtics, Bucks, Grizz, Suns, Cavs, Nuggets Tier 3: Magic, Pistons, Spurs, Rockets, Hornets, Bulls, Based on the current records, the only difference between my analysis and theirs would be that I include the Clippers and Kings in the tier 1 category and they do not. In their analysis, here's the breakdown of remaining schedules by tiers 1,2,3 followed by the number of games against the Rockets in () OKC: 14-34-10 (3) LAL: 12-37-11 (3) ORL: 12-33-12 (1) SAS: 12- 35-11 (4) CHA: 12-32-14 (2) HOU: 12-32-14 CHI: 11-34-14 (2) DET: 10-31-16 (2) If you break it down based on comparative games against strong and weak opponents compared to Houston OKC: -6 LAL: -3 ORL: -2 SAS: -3 CHA: 0 CHI: +1 DET: +4 So you expect OKC to drop up to 6 games relative to Hou based on schedule, and DET to gain 4 based on schedule assuming they lose the tough games and win the easy ones. Those 3 games the Rockets have left against OKC nearly make up the difference in their records for instance. If Houston plays well against bottom dwellers, they could easily rise up above any of these teams. I did not include the Knicks, Wizards, nor Heat which are all 4 games better than the Rockets and have softer schedules, but are still possible teams the Rockets could surpass if they decide to tank. Bottom line, OKC, ORL, SAS, and CHA all have an advantage over Houston schedule wise in the tankathon, and the Rockets have games against them that are going to be critical in determining tank position. DET has the easiest schedule, so it's possible they move up but their play suggests otherwise. That puts the Rockets in a range of getting the 5th - 8th pick with right now 6th looking the likeliest.
I like the winning lately but I think it's still tank away. The benefits from getting a good pick far outweigh those of winning 3-5 more games. 21-25 wins seems to be the range to be a bottom three team. There was a time when I thought we would win 21-25 without tanking but now I think it could be 25-28 if we try. If our schedule is getting easier and we're playing better then we may need to embrace the tank. Trade Ego and "experiment with rotations more" in order to make it more likely to get a top 3 pick. But we've had the best record twice now without the top pick so who knows.
I'll take the 28 wins and 18% chance at Wemby over 22 wins and 28% chance. Getting the guys in good habits is worth more than that extra 10% chance.
I like improvement, but at the end of the day, I want a championship long-term. If that means sacrificing a year or three so be it. The ideal scenario would be improving our record and still getting a top pick and star. I thought we were improved and it is starting to play out, after that it will be how the lottery bounces. A 5th-8th odds position with lottery luck might be the case.
There are 4 teams worse than us after playing the most difficult schedule to start the season with the youngest rotation in the NBA. We should 100% be in last place right now with this schedule, this rotation, and a PG and a C learning core responsibilities. We should have one of the worst records in NBA history after 24 games. It's screaming at us in the face.
Ok, Silas is not the worst of all coaches as I assumed he was but still a pretty average assistant coach. They are winning because the talent level is high and not because they are so well organized or they have nice habits. Playing well allows for more confidence and hopefully good chemistry. No doubt about that.
at this point we are loaded with young talent. you want to see that young talent win because that means that they are fufilling that potential.
We are in the Amazon Prime instant gratification sports era. If a very particular thing doesnt happen exactly when certain fans expect them to then they will just cry and complain instead of looking for the signs of growth and having a wider view and understanding of the process. The youngsters are learning little by little. With each loss a new lesson. I like the assortment of talent and think as the chemistry builds and the game plans become more specific we will have a nice squad on our hands. 2024 we kick the door in.
I agree that 26 to 30 wins might be achievable for this group. But there are other factors: our young players struggle with the length of the season. Injuries (even nonsevere ones) will keep key players out of games. We're seeing this three-headed center thing, and we'll likely see a four-headed monstrosity of Tate, Eason, Jabari, and Martin. And once Gordon is off the roster, Josh Christopher will likely get some extended playing time. Nix is already logging extensive minutes at the backup point. Matthews taking on 4th quarter minutes, etc. None of these maneuvers strike me as game-winning strategies. (Though it did appear that the Rockets may have tightened their rotation to go for a win against Philadelphia.) Once the draft pecking order gets a little clearer, I can see the Rockets rolling out even more unconventional lineups/rotations.
Couldn't agree more. Last season was our first batch of rookies, we're 1.25 season into developing our new recruits. We're going to make the playoffs next season and that's way ahead of schedule. If we don't keep that big picture in mind, the lessons the recruits are learning so fast right now will feel like big problems in a small picture.
Yes sir! Instead of dividing over player preferences and individual opinion on how the team should move forward we should celebrate the baby steps. In all actuality these guys are ahead of the curve. We need to get over the loser mentality of "we suck because of player XYZ" and realize that this team is just young AF and needs court time together. Its ok to be critical of bad play too not trying to be a rainbows and unicorn guy either, but big picture thinking is necessary.
It's not just the good habits, but also what it takes to win games (or maybe this is what you meant already). I see a lot of people talk about win totals as if it's some number disconnected from the quality of our players and team, as if these wins just materialize out of thin air. A 22 win team is vastly different from a 32 win team. You have to play well to win games. If we win a lot of games, that means Jalen went on a tear with efficient 30 point games, or KPJ had a stretch of double digit assists and low turnovers, or Sengun is playing outstanding defense, or Tari starts making all his easy layups, or Jabari starts shooting like Ryan Anderson. Or even all of the above. That last one is already happening by the way, which is why we've won 5 of our last 10. But seriously, it feels like people forget that your win total is directly connected to how well you're playing. Winning an extra bunch of games means that our players are outplaying expectations, and making drastic concrete improvements.
I think a major difference between last season's winning percentage at this point vs this season is that the 7 wins we had at the time all included games that didn't have Green playing. They were winning without their top prospect because at that point he was so "green" that he was hurting the team. This win total is with the core future getting all the minutes. That means the wins we got now actually will translate towards the second half of the season unlike last season. So 30 wins is very possible for this team unfortunately or fortunately... Depending on how much you value having a 14 percent change at getting Wemby at the expense of player development of our current roster.
Finally some decent discussion about reality instead of a "This is what I want" instead of "This is reality".... DD
I will point out that since the flattening of the lotto the worst team hasn't acquired the #1 pick. Usually, some team makes a pretty big jump into the top 5 and one of the teams in there drops out. I've been beating the schedule drum for some time, since the start of the season actually, the Rockets had the hardest schedule coming in and had it for some time. Not only playoff teams but playoff teams on the road. The team is playing better, if you watched this year vs last year you could see that. Sure they have moments where they do dum ****, whole quarters of it, but that should be expected with how young they are. You could see them figuring out things a lot more now, working through Sengun more (basically non-existent last year) and Green is really growing into the role of being the primary guy. They will still have games where they get blown out, even good teams have those games, but a lot of these games are competitive. I think right now they are the 25-26th worst team in the NBA, which is an improvement of course from last year. Not sure how many games that will total at the end of the year but I'll be very surprised if they are bottom 3 bad.
