[Podcast] Howard on the clock, Lin/Asik on the block?

Thanks Clutch. Appreciate all the work you put into this site. These podcasts are great! I honestly will be happy no matter what the outcome of this offseason is. I will be disappointed if we don't land Dwight but this team will still be a ton of fun to watch and follow until next years FA class becomes available. It really is an amazing time to be a Rockets fan.

 

lol this

 

+1. Well done Dave!

 

That's the beauty of Josh Smith being a UFA. The Hawks cant laugh at anything proposed offers because they are running the very real chance that Smith leaves for nothing, so any offer has to be considered. The Hawks also don't have a PG better than Lin currently under contract. Hawks will have to take some kind of deal if they are smart just to gain some assets back after they lose their All-Star PF.

 

Hey Clutch, thanks for the podcast -- I, like all my fellow Rockets fans, are jonesing hard for Rockets talk and news right now, and this definitely helped get the shakes to die down a little bit.

I know previously you asked for feedback regarding these , and I don't mean to be rude (and please, if others disagree, chime in), but I did not think that the other two people on the podcast with you really brought anything to the table. Clutchfans is a pretty knowledgeable group of fans, and these guys seemed a little under informed and lacked insight in my opinion.

 

The value of Josh Smith is something that's certainly a topic for debate.

On one hand, his offensive efficiency has generally been subpar, and was terrible last season.

On the other hand, he is probably the best or 2nd best player for a mid-to-low-level playoff team for the past few seasons. The Hawks made the playoffs after trading away Joe Johnson this year and they made it last season without Al Horford for the most part. His offensive problem also seems to boil down to bad shot selection, which would seem more fixable than, say, just sucking at scoring from all spots on the floor. I don't even mind his 3 pointers that much, just stop shooting the long 2s and he'll be a much more efficient player. It's not like he's a totally hopeless jump shooter (Haralabos Voulgaris noted that he's actually more efficient jump shooter than Rudy Gay when you look at the numbers). He's just kind of just good enough at jump shooting to try and fail-- about 33% on long 2s and 30% on 3s. If you can get him to get his accuracy up to 32-33% it'll be an efficient enough shot to be a weapon.

I'd pay him $15M if that's the market and if the Rockets get Dwight Howard. There is chance that this will be overpaying him, but if he does get things fixed, there is a chance this will be seen as a very nice value contract, too. His defense alone will almost make this worth it and I think it's unlikely he'll be viewed as being overpaid for more than $2-3M/year even if he doesn't get more efficient offensively.

When you have Dwight Howard, Harden and Smith, Smith being overpaid by a couple million dollars/year on a multi-year deal isn't that big a deal. If you only have Harden and Smith, though, and hope to acquire another superstar, via cap room or by way of a trade, possibly trading Smith, then Smith being overpaid by a couple million dollars becomes more of a big deal.

 

Agreed on your 1st point, especially if Dwight has already committed to Houston prior to SNT negotiations for Smith. However, I do think that Teague has greater upside than Lin, and might already be as good as Lin. I'd try for Smith and Teague for Asik/Lin/and picks.

 

FWIW, here's Kevin Pelton's reply to my question regarding Josh Smith's WARP and fair market value according to the metric they use at Basketball Prospectus:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/DHYLNP">@DHYLNP</a> 10, 13, 8 the last three years. His value was about $13M last year, obviously higher before that.</p>&mdash; Kevin Pelton (@kpelton) <a href="https://twitter.com/kpelton/statuses/352490810203308032">July 3, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

I don't see this at all. Staying over cap means dealing with Lakers to get Dwight. I don't see flexibility, there versus not dealing with Lakers. Lakers want no part in sign and trade unless it benefits them. It doesn't benefit Rockets to give them talent for Dwight when they can get Dwight (provided he wants to sign) for no talent and trade talent for future picks.

Once Dwight sings for cap space. Rockets should still have Lin and Asik's contracts those contracts combined can be used to match any star contract out there with the exception of Kobe Bryant. With a couple of small salaries, Lin or Asik's contract can be used to match any max contract that is currently readily available. Teams wanting Lin or Asik are unaffected by Dwight deal. No flexibility gain.

If the Rockets truly wanted flexibility, they would trade away Asik with White, Lin, and Jones for future picks. They would have all the flexibility to just sign Howard and Smith or Millsap and not have to worry about other teams getting involved.

 

Well damn. Postponing a meeting until next week so I can listen to this.

 

I don't think that the Rockets particularly value having the full MLE, the BAE, or a few million $ extra in cap room.

Is there really a $5M player or $3-4M player that they desperately want and can't find a reasonable replacement for at the $2.6M room exception, the minimum or even via trade?

It seems that this market is full of teams with cap space so a lot of the mid-level guys are gonna get overpaid. And those that they don't might get stuck taking the room exception $ anyway.

Also, if the Rockets realistically think that staying above the cap while using S&T to acquire big name FAs was an option, they would have been better off keeping Robinson's contract as a part of a S&T salary matching tool.

 

13M, exactly what I said.

 

I noticed Pelton's WARP valuation of Josh Smith in 2012 too, and was surprised to see the high number. WARP, like PER, tends to understate defense - which means his true value may be around or above 15 mil per if you add his elite defense to the equation. This is probably the reason Morey is going after him in free agency.

 

Trade Lin + Asik for Smith? Why? To think Lin + Asik is not more valuable to Houston than Josh Smith to Houston is not reflecting the reality of last season. Lin's playmaking ability and his fast pace up tempo attack made Houston's game highly entertaining as he made his team mates better players. Asik anchored the middle with tough defence and outrageous rebounding ability. How can Josh Smith help the Rockets in team playmaking and dominant defense/rebound combined? Don't forget the sad story of the Lakers. Bringing all these egoistic superstars together does not necessarily work as a team unless one of the big 3 is Lebron James.

 

Its worth it to overpay for Smith if it doesn't cost you Asik, meaning Lin + incentive would have to go out.

Frankly we will be over the cap and likely under the tax, so what Smith makes doesn't really matter to me. As long as we don't get hit by the tax penalties (money or limits on exceptions), a few extra million is worth it.

Our major earners would be:
Harden - 13.6m
Howard - 20.5m
Asik - 8.3m
Smith - 12-15m
Parsons, Bev, Smith, Cannan will be making less than 4m total.
Dmo, Jones and White will be making about 4.6m

That is about 66 million with room for escalating contracts to keep under the luxury tax. Then, in two seasons, Asik can walk and Parsons can will get a raise. My point is, Smith at 15 is do-able.

The key this offseason is find a way to only move Lin (+Jones/Dmo or Smith) and get Atlanta to agree to a SnT.

Morey has his work cut out for him.

 

if trading for js with hawks, I doubt hawks would bite the bait with lin as a main part. as someone said in the podcast asik is much easier to move than lin. big is tough to find nowadays.

 

I would much rather trade Jeremy in a 3-way with Utah and somebody else for a re-signed Paul Millsap and Mo Williams if we sign Dwight outright.

Send Jeremy to Milwaukee for a couple second rounders. Send Greg Smith somewhere for more draft picks. Send second rounders to Utah. Utah re-signs Millsap for $40/4 and Mo for $6/2 w/2nd season buyout of $500k. We keep Asik and our young PFs.

Mo/Bev/Canaan
Harden/Anderson/Canaan
Parsons/Anderson/Room MLE
Dwight/Asik/DMo
Millsap/Tjones/DMo

Let 'em play ball until the deadline and go from there.

 

It's not overpay considering you'd probably need to throw in Terrence Jones just to cancel out Royce White. So it's essentially Lin + Dmo for Smith

 

Can't see Hawks jumping for Lin even with Asik on board when they already have Teague and Schroeder, who are similar player to Lin anyway.

If Lin must be traded, a rebuilding team like Toronto or Detroit would be ideal, but I don't know what Toronto have to offer to the Rockets. Lin for Calderon seems more plausible, with Detroit getting a good PnR guard to go with Drummon and Monroe while Rockets get a good shooter.

In any case I hope neither is traded, since I get attached to the players, especially hardworking ones like Lin and Asik.

 

Yup, that is what I am advocating.

basketballholic, yeah, your suggestion is the same except Millsap instead of Smith.

Bottom line, getting a PF upgrade, but still keeping your "Asik in the hole"