Playstation Meeting later tonight/early tomorrow (PS3 info almost guaranteed)

Svpernaut · Mar 14, 2006

RC Cola said:

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New York Times said:

In Sony's Stumble, the Ghost of Betamax

By KEN BELSON
New York Times
AT first glance, Amir Majidimehr does not look like a game-changer in the battle to develop the next generation of DVD players and discs. As the vice president for Windows digital media at Microsoft, he neither steers a Hollywood studio nor controls one of the many consumer electronics giants that are betting billions of dollars on one of the two new formats that promise to play high-definition movies and television shows.

Yet when he and his team in Redmond, Wash., decided last September to abandon their neutral stance and to support Toshiba and its HD-DVD standard over the Blu-ray format led by Sony, the unexpected change of heart reverberated through the technology industry.

Suddenly, Toshiba's seemingly quixotic defense of its format had new life. Intel joined Microsoft in backing HD-DVD. Hewlett-Packard withdrew its exclusive support of Blu-ray. This month, another member of the Blu-ray camp, LG Electronics, hedged its bets, too, signing a deal to license Toshiba's technology.

And earlier this month, one of the main reasons underpinning Microsoft's move to shuck its neutrality the complexity of producing Blu-ray technology led to Sony's acknowledgment that it might delay this spring's scheduled release of its PlayStation 3 game console partly because the needed technology was still being worked out.

The possible delay and the Blu-ray group's loss of its once-commanding lead are not encouraging developments for Sony in its attempt to revive its electronics group after a series of bungles. PlayStation 3 is crucial to Sony's future, and not only because the latest version of its gaming consoles could generate billions in revenue; the new machines will include disc drives that will turn them into Blu-ray DVD players as well.

"The PlayStation is more than a game system to them; it's one of their attempts to own the digital living room," said Robert Heiblim, a consultant to electronics companies. "Blu-ray is also critically important to get right. They don't want to be weak in an area they feel they can dominate."

A DECADE ago, a prospective death match between competing first-generation DVD players was averted when Sony and Philips agreed to back down and join the Toshiba/Warner Brothers side, in exchange for a share of royalties that all DVD player producers pay to the format's creator. Now, no truce seems near, as neither side wants to settle for a small piece of what could be a big electronics success.

So consumers and retailers may be in for a reprise of the confusing VHS-Betamax showdown of the early 1980's, with Toshiba replacing Matsu****a as Sony's adversary. But Sony hopes to have a happier resolution this time. Sony lost the battle two decades ago when its highly regarded Betamax technology was defeated by VHS, a more widely accepted alternative.

Once again, the differences between the two technologies are not huge. And a growing chorus of critics, including some studio chiefs eager to sell new products as quickly as possible, call the Blu-ray format unnecessarily elaborate and expensive.

The first HD-DVD machines from Toshiba and the competing Blu-ray players from Sony, Samsung and the other Blu-ray companies will all play movies with crisper pictures, enhanced sound and a bevy of interactive features like pictures within pictures and links to the Internet. The machines will also play older DVD's.

Technophiles got a preview of the HD-DVD technology on Wednesday at an electronics store on the Upper West Side of Manhattan. As Jessica Simpson and Johnny Knoxville cavorted in the movie "The Dukes of Hazzard," prospective buyers were able to see the difference between a plain old DVD and the high-definition kind. But the main feature was the price. Toshiba will sell two players starting in March; one will cost just $499, half the price of the cheapest Blu-ray machines, the first of which will hit the stores this spring. Samsung's first machine will cost $1,000, while Pioneer's Blu-ray player will run $1,800.

Toshiba executives have said that because more high-definition movies will be distributed over the Internet in coming years, they have essentially upgraded existing DVD technology to keep prices down. Blu-ray discs, however, include an architecture that Sir Howard Stringer, Sony's chairman, calls "revolutionary, not evolutionary."

The Blu-ray camp is trying to create a brand-new technology that will accommodate features that are still to be created. In preparation for that future, Blu-ray discs will store 25 gigabytes of data, compared with the 15 gigabytes on comparable Toshiba discs and 4.7 gigabytes on today's DVD's.

The first batch of high-definition DVD's from the studios' vaults will highlight rich graphics, vivid scenery and fast-moving action. The films include "Rambo," science fiction thrillers like "The Matrix" and "Dune" and animated features like "Ice Age." The DVD's are generally expected to cost $19 to $25.

But movies are only one front in the format war. In throwing its weight behind Toshiba, Microsoft has expanded the fight into the computer and game industries. Later this year, Microsoft will start selling an external drive for its Xbox game that will play HD-DVD discs, countering Sony's effort to turn PlayStation into a high-definition DVD player by adding Blu-ray technology. Microsoft and its ally Intel have also convinced Hewlett-Packard to consider making HD-DVD drives for computers. This would give Toshiba an answer to Dell, which remains committed to the Blu-ray format.

"The pendulum is swinging back to the HD-DVD camp," said John Freeman, who runs a technology research firm, Strategic Marketing Decisions, which last year declared Blu-ray the front-runner. "It will be interesting to see if the Blu-ray group can recover. It's only a matter of time before people start backing out of the Blu-ray camp."

Still, even with Microsoft on board, Toshiba may have only closed the gap, not overtaken the Blu-ray group. With Samsung, Panasonic and others siding with Sony, consumers will see more Blu-ray machines in the stores. And Blu-ray has more studios in its camp, which means more choice in movies. Every major studio except Universal plans to release Blu-ray DVD's, while Toshiba has commitments from only Universal, Warner Brothers and Paramount.

But one thing is clear: given Microsoft's growing power and scope in the entertainment realm thanks to its Xbox machines, its media player software and forays into Internet television its support of HD-DVD has deepened, and has probably prolonged, the format battle. That means consumers must figure out each format's advantages and risk being stuck with obsolete machines if one camp backs down.

This is giving retailers fits, not only because they have to carry twice as many machines and discs, but also because they have to train their employees to explain the differences between the standards.

"Both sides are digging in their heels and stupidity has prevailed," said Joe McGuire, the chief executive of Tweeter, a high-end electronics chain. Mr. McGuire called the failure of the two camps to agree on a single format "criminal" and said he would have a hard time advising consumers. "The answer to which is better is: 'We don't know,' " he said. "I'm tempted not to sell anyone these machines."

But sell they will, because retailers and studios need something new to throw at consumers now that DVD players are in 82 percent of American homes. Sales of DVD players are "pretty dead," said John LaRegina, a senior buyer at P.C. Richards, which has 49 stores in the New York area.

But Mr. LaRegina said format battles confused consumers and gave them an excuse not to buy. The uncertainty over who may win also forces film studios and electronics companies to hedge their bets.

Warner Brothers and Paramount, which were originally committed only to HD-DVD, decided last fall to make movies in both formats.

"It was very, very clear that Sony was not going to back down from Blu-ray, and they are basically betting their company on it," said Kevin Tsujihara, the president of Warner Brothers Home Entertainment Group. But, he added, Toshiba has mounted "something of a comeback" by winning endorsements from Microsoft and Intel.

Some Blu-ray companies are also waiting to see how the market develops before jumping in with machines of their own. If the PlayStation 3 is priced below Toshiba's $500 player, it could double as the poor man's Blu-Ray player and undercut Sony's partners. (It will also cost Sony dearly; Merrill Lynch issued a report on Feb. 17 estimating that the first PlayStation 3 players would cost about $900 to produce. If so, Sony could end up with substantial losses on those machines if they are priced around $299, as analysts expect, to compete with the Xbox 360, which has been out since November.)

"It's too early to move into this market," said Katsuhiko Machida, the president of Sharp, a Blu-ray company that has not released details for its players in the United States. "Blu-Ray won't be a big business until probably 2008," he said, so "we can watch and see what happens."

Those doubts are a far cry from Blu-ray's bravado last summer and fall, when it won endorsements from Fox, Lions Gate, Warner Brothers and Paramount. Those agreements, coupled with the presumed sway of the PlayStation 3, led industry analysts at Forrester and elsewhere to predict that Blu-ray would ultimately win the format war.

But two unexpected and little-noticed decisions by the Blu-ray group last spring managed to alienate Microsoft and ultimately revive Toshiba's sagging fortunes.

First, Sony and the Blu-ray group adopted a Java program for interactive features. Microsoft favored a rival called iHD because, among other things, it would work better with its new Vista operating system. The Blu-ray group's board also approved an encryption technology called BD+, which Mr. Majidimehr, Microsoft's vice president for Windows digital media, deemed superfluous.

THESE decisions led Mr. Majidimehr to take a deeper look at the Blu-ray format and whether it would be more expensive to produce, as Toshiba had long contended. Mr. Majidimehr and his deputy, Jordi Ribas, spent the next few months on the phones and flying to Asia to meet with Sony, Panasonic and the other Blu-ray companies.

"We asked them if they are serious, and they told us they were," Mr. Majidimehr said, referring to the added software. Microsoft also received more data that showed that the Blu-ray group was not meeting its targets for producing discs and optical drives. "We were getting a lot of data saying the HD-DVD format was a walk in the park and Blu-ray was having trouble developing theirs," Mr. Majidimehr said.

Microsoft's announcement last September raised alarm bells at Hewlett-Packard, which was coming to similar conclusions. Hewlett-Packard worried that the software included in the Blu-ray format would cost so much in royalties that H-P would be unable to add affordable DVD drives to its computers.

Blu-ray drives cost up to 75 percent more than HD-DVD drives, according to Maureen Weber, the general manager of the personal storage group at Hewlett-Packard and a former spokeswoman for the Blu-ray coalition. "There's not a lot of elbow room," she said of the thin profit margins on computers. "The economics of HD-DVD make a lot more sense for us. I'm starting to wonder about the manufacturing ability of Blu-ray."

A Blu-ray spokesman, Andy Parsons, says his group's royalties, which have not yet been set, will be far lower than critics expect. He also disputed the idea that Toshiba had any advantage because Microsoft or Hewlett-Packard might promote the use of HD-DVD in computers.

"DVD's are about movies and people watch them in their living rooms," he said. "How many people actually use their computer drives to sit and watch movies?"

He added that the price of Blu-ray machines and discs was bound to fall as volume rose. Besides, he said, Toshiba is missing the point by selling cheaper machines, because the first people who buy new technologies typically care less about cost and more about the technology.

There are other industry analysts who contend that Microsoft is simply propping up Toshiba to further its own aims, like countering the PlayStation and combating the spread of Sun's Java software. Nonetheless, Toshiba is happy for the backing, given that the format was written off for dead just a few months ago.

"There's no doubt that everyone has various agendas," said Mark Knox, an adviser to the Toshiba promotion group. "But whatever their agenda, Microsoft's support has been a huge boon to HD-DVD."

For Sony, a fortified rival spells trouble. Not only does it make it harder for Blu-ray to catch on, but it raises questions about Sony's approach of trying to create new formats when consumers turn out to be content with something less ambitious.

That is the lesson Sony learned the hard way in the 1980's with Betamax, and more recently when Apple outdid the Walkman with the iPod. Now it is Toshiba's and Microsoft's turn to challenge Sony's strategy.

Last modified: February 26. 2006 12:00AM
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http://hardware.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=06/02/26/140225
http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F50C11FD345A0C758EDDAB0894DE404482
http://www.newscoast.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060226/ZNYT01/602260868/1019/NEWS03

Rocket River · Mar 14, 2006

Honestly - I would be more incline to see Movies/music/etc
being far more electronic.

Your basic Memory stick is falling in price
I figured in a few years. . .you will bring your memory stick to the
RED BOX . . plug it in . .and down load a movie on it. . . take it back to the house
and
plug the stick in Player. . .

Rocket RIver
that is the way I would go

RC Cola · Mar 14, 2006

Svpernaut said:

http://hardware.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=06/02/26/140225
http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F50C11FD345A0C758EDDAB0894DE404482
http://www.newscoast.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060226/ZNYT01/602260868/1019/NEWS03
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So where's the part about Sony (and Sony specifically) messing up with the licensing program again?

Svpernaut · Mar 14, 2006

RC Cola said:

So where's the part about Sony (and Sony specifically) messing up with the licensing program again?
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Umm, did you even read the article? The article is all about Sony leaving the door open for Microsoft and Intel to back HD-DVD, and in doing so opened the door for even more huge corporations to back it. I also find it amusing that anytime I bring up something negative on Sony you get all defensive like I just made fun of your mother. Sony deciding to make the Blu-Ray part of the PS3 was to push their own product rather then to make the best gaming system that they could... they want to push Blu-Ray and that is why they are making it a "must" for the PS3 launch. That made Microsoft defensive and put their hefty weight behind HD-DVD.

Svpernaut · Mar 14, 2006

RC Cola said:

So where's the part about Sony (and Sony specifically) messing up with the licensing program again?
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Oh, and I forgot to mention the fact that Sony is putting all their eggs in the basket of a player that costs twice as much as "the competition"... which is an exact parallel of their Betamax disaster. Betamax had the most promise and could eventually have been much better than VHS just like Blu-Ray can over HD-DVD but the cost vs. benefit ratio (which is the most important ratio ever) doesn't seem worth it... and I don't think it will either to your average consumer (once again the most important consumer). Sony pushing back the PS3 over "Blu-Ray Problems" only helps the cheaper HD-DVD and Microsoft's 360 come out looking like the best bet.

RC Cola · Mar 14, 2006

Svpernaut said:

Umm, did you even read the article? The article is all about Sony leaving the door open for Microsoft and Intel to back HD-DVD, and in doing so opened the door for even more huge corporations to back it. I also find it amusing that anytime I bring up something negative on Sony you get all defensive like I just made fun of your mother. Sony deciding to make the Blu-Ray part of the PS3 was to push their own product rather then to make the best gaming system that they could... they want to push Blu-Ray and that is why they are making it a "must" for the PS3 launch. That made Microsoft defensive and put their hefty weight behind HD-DVD.
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Um...so again, where does the part about Sony messing up the licensing program come into play? I was under the impression that I missed something about Sony forcing all those companies that wish to use BR to send them a $50 check for every product they sell. Maybe I missed that part in the article? This was about Sony's licensing mistakes with BR, not their "mistake" for putting into the PS3 or whatever else that article mentioned.

I think it remains to be seen whether or not Sony putting BR into the PS3 kept them from making it the best gaming system that they could. From all indications, developers seem to love the idea of having Blu-ray, so I doubt they see it as a mistake.

I really don't even see this as Sony's mistake. To me, it looks like MS didn't want to see a format that uses Java and possibly non-MS codecs to succeed. From what I can tell, I don't think MS cares whether or not HD DVD wins; they just want Blu-ray to fail. I guess if that's Sony's mistake (and not any of the other BDA members/founders), then Sony sure screwed up there. Although had Sony chosen not to put BR into the PS3, I wouldn't be surprised if MS acted the same way assuming BR had the same industry support (which, admittedly, would be a big assumption).

Svpernaut said:

Oh, and I forgot to mention the fact that Sony is putting all their eggs in the basket of a player that costs twice as much as "the competition"... which is an exact parallel of their Betamax disaster. Betamax had the most promise and could eventually have been much better than VHS just like Blu-Ray can over HD-DVD but the cost vs. benefit ratio (which is the most important ratio ever) doesn't seem worth it... and I don't think it will either to your average consumer (once again the most important consumer). Sony pushing back the PS3 over "Blu-Ray Problems" only helps the cheaper HD-DVD and Microsoft's 360 come out looking like the best bet.
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Sony or the BDA? Sony's cheapest announced player is like $1200 IIRC, while Samsung is the one that offers a $1000 BR player. Then there's also the $500 BR burner from Samsung as well.

I believe the BDA has already mentioned that these are "high-end" products, and that there will be cheaper players later on (you know...when the average consumer actually decides to buy a player...like maybe a PS3 ).

Svpernaut · Mar 14, 2006

RC Cola said:

Um...so again, where does the part about Sony messing up the licensing program come into play? I was under the impression that I missed something about Sony forcing all those companies that wish to use BR to send them a $50 check for every product they sell. Maybe I missed that part in the article? This was about Sony's licensing mistakes with BR, not their "mistake" for putting into the PS3 or whatever else that article mentioned.

I think it remains to be seen whether or not Sony putting BR into the PS3 kept them from making it the best gaming system that they could. From all indications, developers seem to love the idea of having Blu-ray, so I doubt they see it as a mistake.

I really don't even see this as Sony's mistake. To me, it looks like MS didn't want to see a format that uses Java and possibly non-MS codecs to succeed. From what I can tell, I don't think MS cares whether or not HD DVD wins; they just want Blu-ray to fail. I guess if that's Sony's mistake (and not any of the other BDA members/founders), then Sony sure screwed up there. Although had Sony chosen not to put BR into the PS3, I wouldn't be surprised if MS acted the same way assuming BR had the same industry support (which, admittedly, would be a big assumption).

Sony or the BDA? Sony's cheapest announced player is like $1200 IIRC, while Samsung is the one that offers a $1000 BR player. Then there's also the $500 BR burner from Samsung as well.

I believe the BDA has already mentioned that these are "high-end" products, and that there will be cheaper players later on (you know...when the average consumer actually decides to buy a player...like maybe a PS3 ).
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My concept is simple, by Sony making it their HIGHEST priority to put the Blu-Ray in the PS3 they FORCED their biggest rival to get completely behind their competitions next-gen player. I have a hard time believing that Microsoft would have leaned one way or the other on the format war had Sony decided not to pursue Blu-Ray.

Sony has fumbled a lot like they did 20+ years ago by pushing the Blu-Ray hand faster then they needed to because they wanted to make sure they got a corner on the market. Rather then slowly gather the support of nearly everyone in the industry they drew a line in the sand and called out "are you with me?!"

The article above states that the projected cost of firmware and software included on Blu-Ray disks are already scaring some people away from Blu-Ray, not to mention the price of the players themselves. The average consumer will NOT pay double the price for something that is only slightly better, and once again they are the only consumer that really matters for the format wars.

Of COURSE game developers are going to salivate at the idea of having 5 times the current storage rate for games, but that doesn't mean the technology is ready. If Sony would have come out with a PS3 (minus the Blu-Ray) to MATCH the release of the 360 they would still have a huge hold on the gaming console market, but now that they may be giving Microsoft a year and two holiday season head starts is a HUGE mistake.

Sony deciding to push up the development speed of Blu-Ray simply to have it bundled with their next-gen console has created COUNTLESS problems for them. First, they forced the hand of Microsoft to choose their competitor. Second, they greatly delayed their next-gen console giving their distant competitor a crapload of time to catch up. Third, they are pushing a product that is at LEAST twice as expensive as it's comparable competitor. Fourth, their speeding up of the release of this technology is hampered by setbacks further causing more backers to jump off the band wagon to the cheaper and safer bet technology.... and the list goes on.

All of these problems were caused simply by the inclusion of Blu-Ray with the PS3. If Sony would have played it safe and released a PS3 to compete with the launch of XBox 360 they would easily still have a strong hold on the console market and they would still have countless backers of Blu-Ray while other backers of HD-DVD would have waited it out and stayed neutral.

KingCheetah · Mar 14, 2006

Clearly, blue-ray is not panning out as well as Sony intended.

Svpernaut · Mar 14, 2006

KingCheetah said:

Clearly, blue-ray is not panning out as well as Sony intended.
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Better change that to Blu-Ray before RC yells at ya.... j/k

KingCheetah · Mar 14, 2006

Svpernaut said:

Better change that to Blu-Ray before RC yells at ya.... j/k
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Sorry for not being clear ~ 'Blue Ray' is Ray Hideo Katamoki the lead designer of the PS3 and he's very blue because the PS3 is sucking hard.

Also, I've heard from inside sources that the PS3 will cost $1600 dollars.

Svpernaut · Mar 14, 2006

KingCheetah said:

Sorry for not being clear ~ 'Blue Ray' is Ray Hideo Katamoki the lead designer of the PS3 and he's very blue because the PS3 is sucking hard.

Also, I've heard from inside sources that the PS3 will cost $1600 dollars.
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The funny thing is, with the TREMENDOUS SUCCESS of XBox Live and XBox Live Marketplace Microsoft is going to be able to drop the cost of the 360 faster then any other console in history. Don't be suprised if the 360 drops at least 100 bucks by the time the PS3 comes out, and dont' be suprised if Halo 3 launches just weeks before the PS3 either. Sony will be LUCKY if they can get the PS3 below 500 bucks and most people think it will be pushing at least $600 at launch... why would mom and pop pay that for the kiddo's when you can get two 360's for that? That's right, they won't.

EDIT: Headed home, hope to argue about toys some more tomorrow =)

RC Cola · Mar 14, 2006

Svpernaut said:

My concept is simple, by Sony making it their HIGHEST priority to put the Blu-Ray in the PS3 they FORCED their biggest rival to get completely behind their competitions next-gen player. I have a hard time believing that Microsoft would have leaned one way or the other on the format war had Sony decided not to pursue Blu-Ray.
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So why does MS HAVE to pick HD DVD if Sony puts BR into the PS3? Sure, they're rivals in the console business, but then again, Toshiba and Sony are partners with Cell and rivals in this war.

Assuming everything stayed the same except for Sony supporting BR in the PS3, MS may still have gone with HD DVD since they have some interest in it. iHD, the interactive layer for HD DVD, is something they created (and will profit from). The VC-1 codec is also something they created, and while it is supported by both formats, I believe the BDA was considering dropping it since the capacity of the BR discs allowed for it to be dropped if necessary; even if they did keep it, chances are that more HD DVD movies would use it due to the smaller capacity available. These things and more are probably what led to MS supporting HD DVD. Of course, had Blu-ray adopted iHD and decided to support VC-1 anyway, perhaps things would have been different. In fact, had that occurred, MS would have no problem with Sony putting BR into the PS3; in fact, they'd probably strongly support it.

Svpernaut said:

The article above states that the projected cost of firmware and software included on Blu-Ray disks are already scaring some people away from Blu-Ray, not to mention the price of the players themselves. The average consumer will NOT pay double the price for something that is only slightly better, and once again they are the only consumer that really matters for the format wars.
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I agree that the average consumer will not pay double the price for something that is only slightly better. Luckily for the BDA, there is a $500 BR burner due out soon, the PS3 in November (assuming the reports are true) for around the same price as the Toshiba HD DVD players at the most, and some more affordable players coming out some time later. The $1800 Panasonic player isn't aimed at the average consumer...unless of course the average consumer is ready to ditch DVD and already has a big screen TV that supports 1080p.

Svpernaut said:

All of these problems were caused simply by the inclusion of Blu-Ray with the PS3. If Sony would have played it safe and released a PS3 to compete with the launch of XBox 360 they would easily still have a strong hold on the console market and they would still have countless backers of Blu-Ray while other backers of HD-DVD would have waited it out and stayed neutral.
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Had Sony not put BR into the PS3, BR would probably not have anywhere near the support it has now. I know Warner and Paramount said they decided to back BR mostly due to the PS3 including BR (think the other studios said similar things, but not sure); IIRC, an exec and Panasonic (*edit:I think it was Pioneer actually, not Panasonic*) seemed pretty happy to see BR in the PS3 as well, so I think CE companies may have been affected as well. I guess the promise of an extra 100M BR drives and possibly 1B BR discs seemed to be a good way to drive down the costs of BR (not to mention a possible way to spread profits among the BDA founders), one of the biggest disadvantages BR seemed to have early on against HD DVD.

I suppose if the BDA only wanted Sony Pictures supporting BR, then Sony should have kept BR out of the PS3. I guess they felt as though pleasing Warner, Paramount, Fox, Disney, and countless other BR supporters was more important than not pissing off Microsoft (assuming MS would have stayed neutral). Seems like most companies liked the idea of having a sure-fire way of getting millions of people to support a format (and avoid a format war)...well, all except one anyway. Damn Sony, why'd you have to piss of MS and force them to create a format war, even if the same move was supported by most companies, including "rivals"!

Svpernaut said:

The funny thing is, with the TREMENDOUS SUCCESS of XBox Live and XBox Live Marketplace Microsoft is going to be able to drop the cost of the 360 faster then any other console in history. Don't be suprised if the 360 drops at least 100 bucks by the time the PS3 comes out, and dont' be suprised if Halo 3 launches just weeks before the PS3 either. Sony will be LUCKY if they can get the PS3 below 500 bucks and most people think it will be pushing at least $600 at launch... why would mom and pop pay that for the kiddo's when you can get two 360's for that? That's right, they won't.

EDIT: Headed home, hope to argue about toys some more tomorrow =)
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You know, there's a certain quote I'm thinking of right now:
http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=2230113&postcount=19

Svpernaut said:

I just get tired of people proclaiming things they know nothing about...
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I could see the PS3 costing Sony $500-$600 to make, but to have that as the retail price in late 2006 would be crazy IMO. I could see them price it at $299 (although with great difficulty...except maybe the HUB will help them price it that low, just like XBL ), let alone keep it under $500. Then again, the same things were said about 6 years ago.

Plus, since HD DVD will beat BR due to its name, despite all other factors, I guess mom and pop will pay extra for the PS3 since it is a more "consumer friendly" name.

UTweezer · Mar 14, 2006

MS doesn't care which one of the two wins...hddvd or blue-ray. If they did then why is their drive on the 360 a regular DVD drive? IMO they did the smart thing and held off on including any new drive technology on the 360. They are quietly laughing amongst themselves at sony from a distance. Their going to let it sort itself out... they are quoted as saying whichever one wins out;they're building an add-on periphial drive.

MS approached this as simple business. Get to the market first. Then from there add on or upgrade technology.

now putting all the technical bullsh*t aside...

this isn't sony vs. whoever...

this is cleary a case of sony shooting itself in the foot.

RC Cola · Mar 14, 2006

UTweezer said:

MS doesn't care which one of the two wins...hddvd or blue-ray. If they did then why is their drive on the 360 a regular DVD drive? IMO they did the smart thing and held off on including any new drive technology on the 360. They are quietly laughing amongst themselves at sony from a distance. Their going to let it sort itself out... they are quoted as saying whichever one wins out;they're building an add-on periphial drive.

now putting all the technical bullsh*t aside...

this isn't sony vs. whoever...

this is cleary a case of sony shooting itself in the foot.
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They didn't really have a choice besides a DVD drive if they wanted to release the 360 in 2005. HD DVD and BR are being held back by the AACS, so had they decided to go with either one, they'd probably release around the same time as the PS3 (maybe even later if they couldn't secure a manufacturer to make the drives for them). It seems like launching early was a big deal for them, so they decided to forego either format for the 360 and launch early with a DVD drive.

IIRC, Peter Moore was once quoted as saying they'd possibly put out a BR add-on, but I believe MS later renounced that claim, and so far, they're only supporting HD DVD for the 360. Of course, if their plan doesn't work and BR is a success, then I'm sure they'll reconsider that notion. Although in either case, they'll still be stuck with DVDs for games.

Of course, just because they have a DVD drive in the 360 doesn't mean they don't have a preference for which format wins. I'm sure they'd much prefer HD DVD to win in order to cash in on some royalties.

Davidoff · Mar 14, 2006

Svpernaut said:

I also find it amusing that anytime I bring up something negative on Sony you get all defensive like I just made fun of your mother.
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Oh come on Svpernaut.. if that isn’t the pot calling the kettle black I don’t know what is..

on a different note.. I got to talk to my friend that works for M$ and I'm getting Kameo and PGR for $25 each and 3 wireless controllers for $25 each oh and charge and play kits for $10

KingCheetah · Mar 14, 2006

Svpernaut said:

Don't be suprised if the 360 drops at least 100 bucks by the time the PS3 comes out, and dont' be suprised if Halo 3 launches just weeks before the PS3 either.
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Microsoft is looking really good right now for getting their machine out so early ~ I doubted that it would work (see dreamcast) but so far so good.

Price drop + Halo 3 release right before the playstation launch could put the PS3 in serious trouble outside of Japan.

RC Cola · Mar 14, 2006

BTW, the original Reuters article has been updated a lot:
http://today.reuters.com/News/newsA...04227Z_01_N3E302193_RTRUKOC_0_US-SONY-PS3.xml

TOKYO (Reuters) - Sony Corp. (6758.T: Quote, Profile, Research) will delay the release of its new PlayStation 3 video game console until early November because development of some of the technology is behind schedule, Japanese newspapers said on Wednesday.

The Nihon Keizai said consumer electronics makers and movie companies have been unable to reach an agreement on the development of the copy protection technology for the console's Blu-ray Disc drive.

Sony said it would hold a briefing on its PlayStation video game business at 3 p.m. on Wednesday, but declined to give details.

Sony shares fell 1.3 percent in early trade to 5,500 yen after the reports.

The PS3 launch has been the subject of heavy speculation in the industry as expectations are high for the powerful machine, which will feature cutting-edge technology in its DVD player, processors and graphics.

The console is expected to enable users to play games and movies as well as to download and view high-quality videos from the Internet.

Rival Microsoft Corp. (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) released its next-generation Xbox 360 console in late 2005 and Nintendo Co. Ltd. (7974.OS: Quote, Profile, Research) plans to start selling its Revolution console this year.

Andy Parsons, a U.S. spokesman for the Blu-Ray Disc Association, said, "Any assertion that there is a delay in the copy protection technology is something we are not aware of. As far as we are concerned, everything's on track."

The papers said the PS3 will be launched almost simultaneously in Japan, the United States and Europe. Sony has never said officially in which geographical region the players would launch.

Sony, maker of the market-leading PlayStation 2 console, announced the PS3 last May. A spokesman for Sony in the United States said the console was still slated for a spring 2006 launch.

The Mainichi report said that should Sony launch PS3 this spring, only half a million units would be ready, falling short of the projected necessary shipment of 2.5 million units.

More than 100 million Sony PlayStation 2 consoles have been shipped worldwide to date.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that confuses me even more. So it is delayed due to copy protection technology, yet a BDA spokesman says that everything is still on track. Somehow, 500K at launch for a region this Spring is not enough? For reference, I think ~300K 360's were sold in the US the first month, and 500K PSPs were available in Japan when it launched. So they'll wait until 2.5 million are ready for launch? I think MS barely surpassed that in worldwide shipments somewhat recently. Given those numbers, I don't see why it wouldn't be possible to launch late June in Japan with ~500K units, and then in the US later that Fall (Europe can wait until 07). Shipments could be better, but those numbers aren't THAT bad.

I need to get these things cleared up. Only about 5 hours to go I guess.

BMoney · Mar 14, 2006

I think this is a case of technology outpacing the market. I know I have about 300 dvds and I am not about to upgrade to another new format anytime soon. It would be foolish. I am inclined to skip the next gereration and wait to have everything on a giant living room entertainment hard drive.

hotballa · Mar 14, 2006

I believe I also read somewhere that due to a Hollywood copyrights protection group., forgot the name, HDTVs without HDMI input will NOT be able to play the new DVDs. I think it was an IGN article, but it basically was killing Hollywood for forcing early HDTV purchasers who didnt get HDMI to have to upgrade their TVs again, and also that since most TVs come with one HDMI input, it punishes gamers who have to constantly plug and unplug

RC Cola · Mar 14, 2006

hotballa said:

I believe I also read somewhere that due to a Hollywood copyrights protection group., forgot the name, HDTVs without HDMI input will NOT be able to play the new DVDs. I think it was an IGN article, but it basically was killing Hollywood for forcing early HDTV purchasers who didnt get HDMI to have to upgrade their TVs again, and also that since most TVs come with one HDMI input, it punishes gamers who have to constantly plug and unplug
Click to expand...

How long ago was that?

IIRC, there's basically a "switch" of sorts for these new formats called the image constraint token (ICT). If a studio wants to, they will turn this "on" when they release a movie, and when that movie plays on an HDTV via a BR/HD DVD player, the player will down-scale the image to 540p (a little higher than DVD resolution) if the TV does not have HDMI. However, it is up to the studio to have this enabled. Recently, I know that Sony Pictures announced that they would not enable this, at least not until piracy becomes a problem; IIRC, most other studios (except for Warner and Universal IIRC) sounded like they weren't going to use it that much either.

So it sounds like that won't be a problem unless pirates go crazy; if that time were to come though, it might be time to "upgrade" to a new HDTV anyway that had HDMI.

edit: I should also note that it will be illegal for a studio to force a player to down-scale an image this way in Japan until 2011. I'm not sure if that affects the US market any, although I believe the US and Japan are in the same region under Blu-ray specs.

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