I know this is a long season, and we're only half way through it. But it doesn't look good right now for the Rockets. It seems like they'll have to have a .600 record if wanting to make the playoffs in the western conference.
Even if the Rockets get to the playoffs does anyone seriously think they can get past the first round?
If I had to guess now I'd say that the top four are going to be SA, Dallas, Phoenix and NO. I don't think the Rockets stand a snowball's chance against any one of those teams. The Rockets match up pretty well against Denver and Portland, but I really don't see either of those two getting to the top four. I don't see the Rockets getting into the top four either. I'll be rooting for the Rox if they make the playoffs, but I'm not going to lay down any money on them making it out of the first round.
Without a trade = no With a good trade = yes I've watched the last few games except for the ones against Utah and it's not looking promising. Even though they won all of them there's still a big problem which is scoring and after all is the basis to winning besides defence. Now defence is something we have and we can be proud of but some players that are in our team are not fitting well or are just not good enough. For instance, Rafer who i like but he's not a starter because of his incostentcy (ball handling, passing, shooting especially the three point shot) but coming off the bench is not an option either. So i think Rafer needs to step it up or see some bench time because we need a spark off the bench. See, with Kenny Smith back in the 90s we head a great shooter, a passer and an okay defender with Cassell the spark off the bench. Brooks is our spark off the bench and even though i would like to see him start sometime he's also not ready and we need a PG who's consistent. In my opinion, Sam Cassell can be a good assett since he's got a few years left and can start for us. He puts in numbers, provides great hustle and some fire to the club since he's been here. Francis is not an option to start because of his injuries but can be valuable in the playoffs. The only problem is what you do with Rafer's minutes if a trade is made so when he doesn't step up because he's too good, if you know what i mean, to be lost in a trade. Then there's 4 more problems: McGrady handling the ball, Hayes not scoring ,FT shooting and energy. When T-mac handles the ball the other are still standing around most of the time and we go back to JVG ball. RA's style is motion offense which requires speed and a lot of passing which this team lacks. I don't know why because i'm sure they can do it but maybe T-mac has something to do with it. I think we need for him to come off the bench and get a starting SG like Sczerbiak who is a hard worker, can make teams pay for double-teaming Yao and is consistent. Also as a good back-up for either Battier or T-mac he's fine. Hayes not scoring is not a big problem but it is one that needs to be adressed. His FT shot is awful and to me something nobody can explain so Hayes needs to stop that. Also lay-ups he needs to work on because he just can bank in a shot. If he still can't do it just dunk that ball, it's not hard for a guy his size. The overall FT shooting is getting ridiculous and is a matter of mental illness and focus. The energy level is there some nights and not there the other which can be blamed by different things. First there's the calls on Yao which are getting really irritating but that's out of your hands. Second there's the home crowd who can't back up their team but also not in the Rockets' hands. Third there's the lack of speed and fast breaks which can be easily done. Fourth there's transition D which the Rockets are very poor at. Last but not least are the lack of dunks which are being taken care as of late by Landry, Yao of course and T-Mac back but they can do many more. A dunk can really make a difference because the players get pumped, the crowd gets hyped, the bench goes wild etc. There are a lot of bright spots of course but these are things that need to come together if they want to make the playoffs. Especially, to get past the first round. They need to be a team more because a lot of times i've noticed it looks like nobody knows where their teammates are so passes go out of bounds, nobody knows where the other guys are supposed to be etc. It looks like they threw in 15 players and said: Go play some ball. They can't find each other blindlessly and make it flow. They miss that and we need to get it in before the playoffs.
The original post said it was hard to see Denver not to make the playoffs. The OP later backtracks and puts Denver as one of the teams fighting for the last playoff spots. He also sees the Lakers playing better than the Rockets in the 2nd half of the season. The Lakers are playing worse without Bynum and Ariza and have lost 4 games in the last 5. They have a 9 game road trip starting on Thursday. Those road trips are brutal for teams, including playoff teams. I don't see them coming out of that stretch as a force, if they keep losing 4 out of 5 games.
With AI and Anthony as their top scorer each with 20 shots per game, Denver won't be better than first round exit.
Two of SA, Dal, and NO will be in the 4-5 spot. The 3 division winners are guaranteed a spot in the top 4, with the top 2 being best records overall(though I guess theoretically NO/SA could be 1 and 2 but DAL would then drop down to 5) Remember last year the Rockets had a better record than Utah but Utah was the 4 seed.(Houston just had the HCA due to better record) If you try to stay away from NO/SA/Dal/PhoHouston's best shot is to get the 6 seed against the Blazers/Jazz/Nuggets DW.
If we could give up a package like James and Head for Cassell, I would love the idea. Even at his age and with his nagging injuries, just the possiblity of a healthy Cassell on this team for the 2nd half of the season would completely change my outlook on our playoff chances. He is affordable and has the skillset and mentality we need right now. I don't think the Clippers see Cassell as a big part of their future since they are out of the picture this season and he is not getting any younger. If not James and Head, I imagine there is some reasonable deal we could make to acquire Cassell.
No TMac against GSW means it is going to be very tough to get a win tonight. Unfortunately, a loss to a competitor for the 8th seed is doubly bad and there's a good chance we're going to do that twice in a row (Utah and GSW).
Houston's win knocks Golden State from the 7th seed to the 9th seed. GSW has a road game tomorrow against the Hornets. Hornets are on fire with the current longest winning streak at 9 games. Can the GSW turn around from a loss to the Rockets to beat the Hornets? It's anybody's guess.
