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Playoff Opponent shooting efficiency

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by sutton, Jun 7, 2014.

  1. sutton

    sutton Member

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  2. sutton

    sutton Member

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    regular season

    [​IMG]
     
  3. DOLPHIN2k2

    DOLPHIN2k2 Member

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    Does this mean that Harden is the as big a defensive juggernaut as PB?
     
  4. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

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    I'm trying to figure this out, its essentially saying Portland scored some 400 points a game, oh wait, i get it, that's the field goals taken when a player is on the court regardless of who took them

    How is this relevant?

    If you want individual players, try http://www.mysynergysports.com/
     
  5. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

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    Well, the only thing that jumps out at you in this fairly misleading table is that it makes Lin look better at defense than Beverley. That might have motivated the original post, but I dunno.
     
  6. Play07

    Play07 Member

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    took off the playoff filter and put on reg season, lin beat out bev on all but 1/6 for playoffs but I didn't read into it too much because I know bev was coming off a injury. One players main job is to play D the other play O.

    These are some interesting reg. season stats, knowing the rep lin has on defense here and through the media, and also when bev was going to be out for the playoffs everyone claimed the series was going to be over if lin has to guard lillard. "which is well documented here" however lillard ended up sending us home, in one of the biggest playoff game winners in 1st round history, without lin even being on the court.

    Im not a big stats guy so maybe these numbers aren't clear? but im going off of what i saw on stats.NBA.com

    PLAYERS OPP SHOTS reg. season 13-14
    restricted area
    lin 676/1160 58.3%
    bev 609/1020 59.7%

    in the paint
    lin 223/624 37.3%
    bev 202/522 38.7%

    mid range
    lin 382/993 38.5%
    bev 323/845 38.2%

    left corner 3
    lin 61/148 41.2%
    bev 38/107 35.5


    right corner 3
    lin 36/133 27.1%
    bev 30/94 31.9%

    above the break
    lin 262/751 34.9%
    bev 193/541 35.7
     
  7. Haymitch

    Haymitch Custom Title
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    Might have?
     
  8. mfastx

    mfastx Member
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    I don't understand this. And it's not even filtered from best to worst or whatever.
     
  9. aelliott

    aelliott Contributing Member

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    As it has already been pointed out these numbers aren't just for the opponent that these players are guarding. Instead they are total baskets scored while you were on the court, regardless whether the player was guarding the shooter or someone else.

    It's a FG% version of +/- in that it's based on the entire lineups not on the individual player.
     
  10. Solaris

    Solaris Member

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    Wow, T-Jones really sucks.
     
  11. phantoman

    phantoman Contributing Member

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    This post confirms my eye test. Lin is not a good 1 on 1 defender but rather a good help defender. He plays the defensive scheme well, that is if we have a scheme. In the regular season he was doing a decent job of closing out and fighting thru screens this yr than In Previous.

    The problem is he gets a lot of heat when critical shots are taken on him. That make sense to me because the opposing team will go at poor 1 on 1 defenders. So you will see a lot of shot made by his player. But if you watch closely he helps on his team mates players to prevent shots too.

    However Lin needs to get better on the ball. And we need a defensive scheme to cover up his lack of 1 on 1.
     
  12. aelliott

    aelliott Contributing Member

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    Just curious, how does this post confirm that Lin is a good team defender or that he is a poor 1 on 1 defender?
     
  13. crossover

    crossover Contributing Member

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    <iframe width="853" height="480" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/wVYJULACcao" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

    I'm posting this video because it's another contextual stat lesson.

    Look how many buckets are by opposing players not assigned to Harden BUT are due to Harden's lack of defending his man. Harden's liability on defense goes way beyond an eFG% stat bereft of context.

    I think an interesting follow up stat would be how the opposing eFG% changes when Harden is/ is not on the court.
     
    #13 crossover, Jun 9, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2014
  14. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    Fairly useless information.

    We already know who is good and bad defensively.
     
  15. phantoman

    phantoman Contributing Member

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    Since this is a Team stat and not a individual it makes it harder to Judge my conclusion on the eye test.

    But overall the high level data in my opinion show's that when Lin is on the floor the overall opponent efficiency is down. Unless i am reading the Original Post wrong - Lin was on the floor for 311 field Goal attempts and Portland made 132.

    Take into comparison the playoffs with Portland, Portland took 537 FGA - Made 239 FG and there were a total of 288 min in the entire series.

    Lin was present on the court for 311 FGA (57.9% of the total FGA) and was on the court for 132 FGM (55.2% of the FGM) and Played 176 mins (61% of total mins)

    if you take the rate of FGA on a per min basis there was roughly 1.77 shots attempted per min when Lin is on the court. Which is about the same as Harden and Beverley. However, the FGM on a per min basis is .75 which is a .05 less than Bevelery and Harden.


    Total Attempts in series 537
    Total FG made 239
    Total Mins 288

    Lin
    Opponent Total FGA 311 57.9%
    Opponent Total FGM 132 55.2%
    Min played 176 61.1%

    Bevelery
    Opponent Total FGA 344 64.1%
    Opponent Total FGM 163 68.2%
    Min played 202 70.1%

    Harden
    Total FG made 452 84.2%
    Opponent Total FGM 210 87.9%
    Min played 263.4 91.5%

    rate of FGA on Court
    Lin 1.7670454 per min
    Beverly 1.7029702 per min
    Harden 1.7160212 per min

    rate of FGM on Court
    Lin 0.75 per FGM
    harden 0.80 per FGM
    Beve 0.81 per FGM

    Now what could throw off this is the offensive line up when Lin was playing. But at face value - Lin played only 61% of the total mins vs Harden (91.5%) or Beve (70.1). This means his contributions on the court is more heavily weighted compared to Harden. However the overall impact to the game is a lot less.


    If you were to apply Bev/Harden mins played to Lin's rate per min to compare apples to apples you would see that

    Bevelery Adj Lin
    Opponent Total FGA 344 64.1% 356.94 66% 12.94
    Opponent Total FGM 163 68.2% 151.50 63% (11.50)
    Min played 202 70.1% 202 70%

    Harden Adj Lin
    Total FG made 452 84.2% 465.4397727 87% 13.44
    Opponent Total FGM 210 87.9% 197.55 83% (12.45)
    Min played 263.4 91.5% 263.4 91%

    Which means, that if harden was to play better D for and extra 5.4 FG he would have the same impact that Lin had. (take ((12.45/263)*48min)/42.44 Opp eff when lin on the floor.
     
  16. aelliott

    aelliott Contributing Member

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    Interesting question...here you go (sorted best to worst).
    A negative NET means that your team allows a lower eFG% by the opponent when you are on the court. A positive NET means that the opponents eFG% is higher when you are on the court.

    The Rockets allow a worse eFG% against when Harden is off the court. Harden ranks just behind Dwight and is tied with Paul George, Jimmy Butler and CP3 and is ahead of Beverley.

    The interesting point to note is that T. Jones has the worst NET.


    <TABLE Border=1><TR><TD COLSPAN=4>Opponents eFG%</TD></TR><TR><TD>Name </TD><TD>eFG% - ON </TD> <TD> eFG% - OFF </TD> <TD> NET </TD> </TR><TR><TD>Leonard </TD><TD>47.3% </TD><TD>49.0% </TD><TD> -1.8% </TD> </TR><TR><TD>Howard </TD><TD>48.6% </TD><TD>49.4% </TD><TD> -0.7% </TD> </TR><TR><TD>Harden </TD><TD>48.7% </TD><TD>49.4% </TD><TD> -0.6% </TD> </TR><TR><TD>George </TD><TD>45.8% </TD><TD>46.4% </TD><TD> -0.6% </TD> </TR><TR><TD>J.Butler</TD><TD>46.9% </TD><TD>47.5% </TD><TD> -0.6% </TD> </TR><TR><TD>Paul </TD><TD>48.1% </TD><TD>48.7% </TD><TD> -0.6% </TD> </TR><TR><TD>Beverley</TD><TD>48.7% </TD><TD>49.0% </TD><TD> -0.3% </TD> </TR><TR><TD>L. Stephenson</TD><TD> 46.1% </TD><TD>45.8% </TD> <TD> 0.3% </TD> </TR><TR><TD>Curry </TD><TD>47.8% </TD><TD>47.5% </TD> <TD> 0.4% </TD> </TR><TR><TD>T.Allen </TD><TD>50.0% </TD><TD>49.6% </TD> <TD> 0.4% </TD> </TR><TR><TD>Westbrook</TD><TD>49.1% </TD><TD>48.5% </TD> <TD> 0.6% </TD> </TR><TR><TD>L. James</TD><TD>51.3% </TD><TD>50.6% </TD> <TD> 0.6% </TD> </TR><TR><TD>Noah </TD><TD>47.3% </TD><TD>46.6% </TD> <TD> 0.7% </TD> </TR><TR><TD>Durant </TD><TD>48.9% </TD><TD>48.2% </TD> <TD> 0.7% </TD> </TR><TR><TD>Love </TD><TD>52.1% </TD><TD>51.1% </TD> <TD> 1.1% </TD> </TR><TR><TD>Lillard </TD><TD>49.3% </TD><TD>47.4% </TD> <TD> 1.8% </TD> </TR><TR><TD>B.Griffin</TD><TD>48.9% </TD><TD>47.1% </TD> <TD> 1.8% </TD> </TR><TR><TD>Irving </TD><TD>51.8% </TD><TD>49.1% </TD> <TD> 2.8% </TD> </TR><TR><TD>T.Jones </TD><TD>50.3% </TD><TD>47.3% </TD> <TD> 3.0% </TD> </TR></TABLE>
     
  17. PhatPharaoh

    PhatPharaoh Member

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    this stat is basically irrelevant because Harden is on the court with Howard for almost all of his minutes. I would rather see some kind of individual defensive statistic though that could more accurately depict his individual impact on that side of the floor.
     
  18. aelliott

    aelliott Contributing Member

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    The stat quoted was eFG% so you don't need to adjust for minutes played.

    If you're going to use rate of FG made per minute then you need to standardize on an equal number of possessions. Otherwise the pace can skew your results.

    The reason that I asked how this proved your statement is because if you look at the original stats the opponents eFG% is pretty similar for everyone on the team.
     
  19. aelliott

    aelliott Contributing Member

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    That's the issue with any team stat such as straight +/- or DRPM.

    Of course the argument would be that T. Jones and Beverley are also on the court with Howard most of the time too.

    82games has individual stats but not quite what you're asking for.
    According to them as a SG (their stats are by position) Harden is scoring 31.6 pts with an eFG% of 53.6% per 48 Minutes played. His opponent is scoring 22pts with an eFG% of 47.8% per 48 minutes played. What's missing from their stats is the off the court numbers for the opponent.
     

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