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[Playoff Odds] Hollinger Watch

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by DarkHorse, Dec 12, 2012.

  1. DarkHorse

    DarkHorse Contributing Member

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    http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

    Code:
                            Actual        Projected                           Odds(%)
    TEAM	        W	L	W	L	BEST	WORST PLAYOFFS  DIV	NO.1	FINALS CHAMP LOTTERY
    San Antonio	18	4	63	19	77-5	46-36	100.0	91.6	57.3	44.2	35.4	0.0
    Oklahoma City	17	4	61	21	74-8	41-41	100.0	95.6	31.4	31.2	23.6	0.0
    LA Clippers	14	6	55	27	70-12	38-44	99.4	83.6	7.5	13.3	8.5	0.0
    Memphis	        14	4	53	29	68-14	33-49	97.8	8.3	3.4	5.4	3.0	0.0
    Golden State	14	7	46	36	64-18	29-53	81.6	13.0	0.2	0.9	0.4	0.1
    Denver	        10	11	45	37	62-20	28-54	72.9	2.3	0.0	1.3	0.7	0.2
    Utah	        12	10	44	38	61-21	27-55	69.6	1.6	0.0	1.1	0.5	0.3
    LA Lakers	9	12	42	40	59-23	25-57	55.5	3.3	0.0	1.2	0.6	0.0*
    
    Minnesota	9	9	42	40	58-24	25-57	51.9	0.5	0.0	0.9	0.4	0.4
    [B]Houston	        9	11	39	43	55-27	23-59	36.3	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	1.0[/B]
    Dallas	        11	10	38	44	56-26	20-62	26.2	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	1.5
    
    20 games in, the Rockets are currently the second team out of the playoffs (behind Minnesota) with a 36.3% chance of making it in.

    Obviously no sabermetric formula is going to be perfect, but the Hollinger power rankings are a decent assessment of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the team, and much better than something like the BCS since all of the teams actually play each other on a regular basis. (and is heavily influenced by what is effectively a popularity contest)

    Anyway, obviously the last couple of losses have hurt quite a bit, but thought it would be interesting to monitor the statistical likelihood of the Rockets playoff chances.

    Unfortunately, right now we're hovering right around that dreaded 14th pick. But as it's been mentioned many times before, and least we're doing so with a youth movement and flexibility.
     
    #1 DarkHorse, Dec 12, 2012
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2012
  2. jayhow92

    jayhow92 Member

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    I didn't know GState was 14-7. When's the last time that's happened?
     
  3. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    Predictions like this, no matter how good they are, cannot account for injury risks nor the growth potential of young players. So the Rockets likely have much more of a variance in their win total than most teams. I would be pleasantly surprised if they make the playoffs due to some insane play from someone we didn't expect(perhaps Parsons), but not shocked. Nor would I be shocked if an injury come out of nowhere to really hurt us. After all, can't predict injuries for players with little history.
     
  4. recboil

    recboil Member

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    Interesting post. Something to take into consideration is that we've had one of the most difficult schedules so far. Our W/L's should look a better further down the season.
     
  5. DarkHorse

    DarkHorse Contributing Member

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    It's true. According to Hollinger's SOS, we've had the 6th highest SOS this season, and 3rd highest over the last 10 games.

    Odds are that it will balance out over time, but also interestingly, his playoff odds are supposed to take that into account, so we'll see.

    It's still pretty early in the season, so it's a relatively small sample set of games we're looking at here, but I still think this is one of the more valuable metrics for predicting what's going to happen as the season progresses.
     
  6. conquistador#11

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    i'll take 55 wins right now. let's do this!
     
  7. jocar

    jocar Member

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    After what happened at the end of last season..
    "Probability % of making the playoffs" makes me cringe now.
     
  8. BeeBeard

    BeeBeard Member

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    Like most lists Hollinger produces, these have been fun to laugh at for years, and become useful only late in the NBA season.

    Some things that look questionable as hell:

    - That 70% Utah figure. They get ridiculous whistles at home but they are an objectively poor team, and no "Lakers road win" changes that, especially for a team that came within a couple of games of losing an 8th seed to Phoenix or Houston last season

    - That 28% Dallas figure. Their best player has been hurt, and obviously the team will be better when he returns. Does that figure into Hollinger's analysis? Nope. He never accounts for things like injuries, it's just "this is the projection in a bubble" unrealistic nonsense instead. Note that Hollinger's valuation of Dallas only with Dirk hurt makes most of his lower tier Western Conference probabilities garbage.

    - That 49% Lakers figure. Anybody who thinks the Lakers aren't making the playoffs this season hasn't been watching NBA basketball long enough. Even if it takes David Stern riding atop Joey Crawford and whipping him like a plow horse, it will happen. Do Hollinger's projections account for consideration$ such as tho$e? Nope, and they're not supposed to.

    When you temper the math with a little bit of realism, it creates a more useful playoff picture.
     
  9. NL Rocket

    NL Rocket Member

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    So the 6th toughest schedule of the 30 teams correct?
     
  10. jocar

    jocar Member

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    so does this..

     
  11. BeeBeard

    BeeBeard Member

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    Oh yeah, lest we forget. Utah was the 8th seed last season, not Houston, or even Phoenix. Really nailed it there, Hollinger!

    It's too bad, too, because last season's Rockets team would have at least made that series with San Antonio interesting. They may have even won a game or two. They would have at least done better than Utah, who was outclassed and blown out nearly every game instead, in the most uninteresting series of the playoffs, reassuring the league that that whole Jazz roster had no business being there.
     
  12. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Rockets are still very young. I expect they will be better at end of season provided there aren't injuries. The Rockets also have cap space. I expect the Rockets to make a big move and a little move at trade deadline. Big move brings in an elite player. Small move moves a PF for a guard.

    I think Rockets barely make or miss the playoffs.
     
  13. BeeBeard

    BeeBeard Member

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    It's even worse than that. The predictions not only fail to account for possible injuries, they don't account for existing injuries, either.

    Dallas will be much improved with Dirk back, Indiana with Granny Danger back, Golden State will be dangerous when Bogut heals up, etc. etc.

    The projections would be a lot more useful only if the impossible were to happen, and every team went through the first 1/4 of the NBA season at 100% strength and injury-free.
     
  14. just a word

    just a word Member

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    From what I can understand of the site, it appears to calculate the odds based off his Power Rankings, which takes SOS into account. And I presume that his computer has the schedule of the upcoming games so the future SOS is taken into account as well? Or am I understanding this wrong?:confused:

    Anyhow, Wages of Wins apparently has Houston coming in at 7th seed, 46 wins... which it's still on track for (especially given that Dec is a tough schedule). I need to look more into how they calculate it, but I thought it's interesting.
     
  15. Billionzz

    Billionzz Contributing Member

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    I don't think his predictions take in account the young age of our team and that everybody is still learning to play together and learning a new system.

    We see it as fans where they will play good for part of the game then turn right around and suck during the same game, more so than a veteran team.

    At the beginning of the years I saw some of the worst Rockets basket that I had seen in the last 25 years. I think the Rockets have improved quit a bit already this year and I think they will continue to improve. I really think we will see a big improvement when we get the power forward situation figured out. Either let somebody else play or figure out how to get Patterson the shots he was getting when he scored over 20 three games in a row.
     
  16. AroundTheWorld

    Supporting Member

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    He had us with almost 100 % in the playoffs late in the season last year. His predictions are crap.
     
  17. desi tmac91

    desi tmac91 Member

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    Might be because we were like one or two wins away from clinching a playoff spot?
     
  18. ch0c0b0fr34k

    ch0c0b0fr34k Member

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    Because we crapped the last 20 games and completely blew a chance at the playoffs. Did you even watch last year? Hollinger's odds only reflect the incredible failure that was last year.
     
  19. charles_zed

    charles_zed Member

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    Lakers aren't making the play-offs this year, book it.

    Dallas will be getting Dirk back and you can expect them to improve.

    The final seed will be a dog fight between Dallas, Utah, Minnesota, Denver and Houston.

    I think the 39% figure is a nice arbitrary number. We look slightly weaker than the others, but given we have so much youth and upside we could see an explosion in play from any given player on our roster so we're quite the wildcard.
     
  20. BamBam

    BamBam Contributing Member

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    [​IMG]
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