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Player to Target if No Salary Cap Smoothing

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by mrjohn, Nov 26, 2014.

  1. mrjohn

    mrjohn Member

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    Earlier people thought that cap would have a gradual ramp up as the NBA revenues are rising. However, the NBPA seems to favor a massive jump instead. If this is to happen then we will not have enough cap space to sign a star this off-season.

    However, we can line up ourselves for the Summer of Durant and Co in 2016 AND take advantage of this cap situation now.

    Previously, it was thought that the Rockets were interested in just players with expiring contracts. However, if the Rockets assume that that no salary cap smoothing, then the Rockets will be expanding their list to players with 2 years remaining on their contracts (and possibly 3 if that is a team option or has a small guarantee). The Corey Brewer rumors make sense if the Rockets do not believe there will be a nice bump in the salary next year and thus not a great way to get max space.

    This could be an opportunity to pounce for Morey.

    We can bolster our team for the present as this year some contenders have injury issues. And with Dwight having a player option in 2016, there is some pressure to at least get to the 2nd round (IMO).

    So here are some 2yr contract player situations that may now be of interest to us:

    The Nets could have up to 77M in salary for 15-16 season. They have some small team options that they could decline that would save them around $2.5M or so but if the speculation that Prokorov is looking to sell is true….then unloading some salaries could make their financials look better.

    The guy who makes sense for us to acquire for them would be Jarrett Jack (team option for 16-17). He’s making $6.3M each of those years so we could either involve Terry in the trade or use the Lin TPE. If we go with the TPE, I think the Nets would actually be giving us valuable picks instead of the other way around.

    Would you trade the 2015 2nd rounder (we have 3 others due to us in 2015) and use the TPE for the Jarrett Jack, Nets 2015 2nd rounder (better pick) and the Nets 2018 2nd rounder?

    Jack just turned 31 and is 6’3 combo guard who could give us that 2nd playmaker we are looking for. He’s a 36% 3pt shooter which is respectable.

    The Pacers have $76M in salary this year and $64M in salary next year. They are a self-proclaimed luxury-tax avoiding team and with George out for the season and Lance gone – they are not contending this year.

    The target is David West who has a player option for next year (likely to exercise considering his age).

    Would you trade Jason Terry, Papa, Dorsey for West, Sloan, Copeland and their 2015 2nd mid rounder?

    We know West’s credentials. He can score from midrange and inside. Maybe we get him to shoot the corner 3. He would solve our PF issue as he’s a solid 2-way player and could even be a small-ball center. We could then go big game hunting with Jones, the Pels pick, and the TPE (in a more complicated deal due to TPE rules). Copeland is an expiring contract and a capable small-ball 4. Sloan has been playing well this year and is an experienced PG for the Coach (if he does not love Canaan). And we dump Dorsey!

    For the Pacers, they save money and get a young rotation player in Papa as they rebuild around Hibbert, George, and the 2015 pick.

    Miami is also known to be kind of cheap but I don’t think we will help them out due to the Bosh signing, them being a solid FA destination and they also have a positive tax situation to boot. I don’t think we would help OKC or Golden State since they are contenders in our conference.

    The last team I will mention is the Denver Nuggets ($74M this year, next year $65M but it will likely be lower since Affalo will forgo his option and become a FA). Now when most fans think Rockets-Nuggets trade, they think of Faried, Wilson or Mosgov. Those guys are assets and will cost us a decent amount to get.

    What if we looked at Foye or McGee instead - here me out. Foye is a 3pt shooting combo guard with a team option for next year. He makes $3M and drafted Harris this year (as well as traded back for AA). Javale has 2 years on his deal at $11-12M. Foye wouldn’t cost much at all.

    Would you trade Terry, Papa, Dorsey for McGee, Foye and their 2016 1st round swap rights with the Knicks?

    I know McGee is an asthmatic knucklehead playing in the Mile High city (two puns there) and he makes a lot of money. But if there is no cap smoothing and Les doesn’t mind, we get a shot-blocking, alley-ooping big to back up Dwight and run P&R with. And we get rid of Dorsey! ; )

    He could be a sillier version of Brandan Wright - whom we could possibly flip next year if he behaves on the big stage (with Clint ready to take his place). The 1st round swap option would be a solid get as well. Foye is also a 6’3 combo guard that just turned 31. He’s 38% from 3 and is a decent secondary play-maker.

    There are many more targets that this new possible strategy could uncover but I thought this would be a good thread-starter. Feel free to add other targets (like Ersan, etc.).

    The deals I mentioned seem Moreyesque (to me) ala the Jason Terry trade…find an undervalued player making more money than they should but can still help now AND get assets for taking them.
     
    1 person likes this.
  2. Voice of Aus

    Voice of Aus Contributing Member

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    I have watched a lot of nets games this year and haven't liked jack that much, a lot of dribbling without knowing what to do
     
  3. mrjohn

    mrjohn Member

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    If so, then you've watched also shoot 52% from the field despite his 3pt % being well below his career average. You, being a statistics minded chap, know what we can expect to happen with his 3pt shot over time.

    New team to him and new coach to the team could explain your observation.
     
  4. mrjohn

    mrjohn Member

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    What do you think of the other options?
     
  5. Voice of Aus

    Voice of Aus Contributing Member

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    It's 4am here, and I have work tommorrow with my countries biggest draft in sports tommorow tonight, which I havee to do work on, I'll get back to you ASAP sometime tommorow or the day after when I read it all. Looks solid though
     
  6. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    The Nuggets would probably gift wrap McGee if they could. He's just a bad basketball player, and the guy is never on or shown the ability to impact a winning team.

    If McGee was on a salary that could fit in the TPE than I might be obligated to say sure, but the fact is that you'd have to give up basically your only 2 major salary trade assets in Terry and KPap... both of which have been making contributions this season so far.

    Not a smart move IMO. Far too much risk if McGee doesn't turn a corner.

    However the player that does intrigue me as a buy low type of player (that we actually know can play when healthy) is Danilo Gallinari. Again.... IF HEALTHY, he fits perfectly as a versatile 3rd scoring option on a good team. That's someone I'd be willing to take a gamble on if, like Dwight, our trainers saw a way to revive his health. Still risky, but much more of an attainable reward in due time.
     
  7. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    We aren't going to be getting picks for the players your suggestion sending out. Also we don't own our 1st via the Lin trade so we can't really do pick swaps, unless it was around the pels pick which i guess isn't necessarily a bad thing.

    I know it's a far far far shot, but the best two year player to target is horford. Just not sure if we could beat other teams(Boston comes to mind). Sticking with Atlanta, id love korver, we could use a really elite 3pt shooter.

    There are many options, and I've already figured Morley was liking at 2yr contracts, especially with the TPE.

    I'm sure there are plenty other's, maybe ill discuss with you further when i take lunch.

    Edit: i like dobros idea of targeting danillo. Been mentioned before as a serious buy low candidate.
     
  8. mrjohn

    mrjohn Member

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    Given what we know today, the best asset in the deal (for both sides) would be the 1st rd swap option between the Denver-Knick pick. I agree McGee is a risk but if we don't have max cap space available for this offseason - he's just an expense to les. He can definately be a backup C at worse. He can dunk and block shots - what do you think of Brandan Wright?

    What that move also does is allow us to trade that swap, pels pick and use the TPE on Dragic or whomever we want that's $8m or less. Immediate savings plus 2 lotto picks gets us to the top of the list for guys in that salary range.

    What do you think of that?
     
  9. OlajuwonFan81

    OlajuwonFan81 Member

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    Good thread. I think Morey should have all options on the table. We definitely need to improve this team if we want to win a championship.

    I would welcome a guy like J. Jack, he would be a solid playmaker off the bench and can light it up in bunches. I think he is a better version of Lin.

    If Morey is confident that there will be no salary cap smoothing then it's time to go all in.
     
  10. mrjohn

    mrjohn Member

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    The Knicks-nuggets have a swap option from the Melo trade - I am suggesting we take that not swap our own pick.

    As for Gallo, I think Denver is still high on him so it would cost us a bit. All the moves I suggested in OP have the same theme: low cost, mid to high reward.
    Like Morey's jet trade.

    I don't see ATL blowing it up yet so I don't think horford or korver are on the market. Milsap, who is about to get paid, may be and if you did my suggested trade you could offer to use the TPE and either that swap-right pick or the Pelicans pick for him.

    Mwahaha, then you can re-route millsap, the remaining pels or swap-pick (whichever Atl does not prefer), and McGee for Kevin Love.

    Beverley, harden, Ariza, love, Dwight
    Jones, foye, Dmo
    Championship
     
  11. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    If there is no cap smoothing in the summer of 2015, the rockets are probably looking at a max of $7.2M in available salary. And that does not include retaining Papa. The Rockets are not going to be players this off season in the FA market.

    However there is the summer of 2016. NBA payroll will increase approximately $700M in one fell swoop. Unfortunately that is the summer that D-Mo and Jones become UFAs. Those two are probably heading for seven figure paydays. Yes, there will be that much money out there. ~$23M per team. And the NBA minimum salary will go up as well by ~$23M. That means the teams must spend a major portion of the new money. I would say that D-Mo and Jones are about to hit the jackpot.
     
  12. mrjohn

    mrjohn Member

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    And I would agree with a lot of what you have said, which is why we will move both those guys instead of signing them.
     
  13. basketballholic

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    Firstly, you don't trade for a player because he is a bad player and is gettable. I understand your rationale of wanting to expand the salary base to trade out with. But there are better ways to go about it. We've got second round picks that we can trade to get a somewhat decent player. And....most of those crappy players you brought up...we're gonna have to send the other team at least a second rounder anyways.


    By the way, as far as needing more outgoing salary, I don't see it except under one circumstance. That being that you are acquiring a huge incoming salary.....perhaps Deron Williams or Amare Stoudamire. Terry's expiring contract and Kostas' contract total a little over $10.44 million. That means they can be traded for $15.44 million of salary. Throw in Canaan, Capella, and Black or Johnson and you've got $17.9 million of possible incoming salary in a single player.

    So, we don't need to fill the TPE with dead salary just so we'll have enough salary to make a deal. And any deal for any substantial player on a high salary is going to demand several (if not all) of our youngsters from among Kostas, Canaan, Bev, DMo, Terrence, Capella, Johnson, or Black. Several of those guys are going to have to go out anyways in a trade for a good player.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------


    IF.......we are going to acquire essentially a bad player on an expiring contract (something that I do not think Hayes is) then a better way to use a player like that is to trade for them and then get them to sign a very large extension with a small guarantee for 2015. In other words you turn them into a possible empty salary trade chip for salary matching purposes. For instance, we trade for Joel Anthony who is extension-eligible and get him to sign an extension with a starting salary of $14 million and a guarantee of $2 million. The player knows they're going to be a trade chip so the guarantee has to be higher than what they think they'll get on the open market. I would think Joel Anthony and his agent would recognize that $2 million is more than he'll get on the open market for a couple months of the off season and he'll likely be out of that contract by the end of July in time to still sign a minimum salary deal for the upcoming season or sign overseas for even more money.

    Worst case scenario if you can't use Anthony's deal to get a huge trade done in the 2015 off season, you off load it to Philly along with $2 million and a second rounder for a fresh $14 million TPE and they cut him.

    By the way you don't necessarily have to use the TPE to get a trade for Anthony done. You could cobble together $2.47 million of outgoing salary together to get Anthony, perhaps the salaries going to different teams for an incoming pick or two. But the TPE does give you the ability to trade for an incoming salary without having to send out any salary.


    ***In the above scenario I described the players have to be extension eligible which means they have to be on a 4 or 5-year non-rookie scale contract and have to have passed the 3-year mark from the time they signed it OR they have to be on a contract that was extended and at least 3 years removed from signing the extension. A partial (but mostly complete) list of those players follows:



    Joel Anthony - signed a 5-year deal in 2009, can be extended. Not likely to get more than a minimum salary in 2011 free agency. A prime candidate to be talked into a non-guaranteed extension with a small guarantee to be used as a trade chip. (current $3.8 million salary)

    Jared Dudley - signed a 5-year extension in Nov 2010 with a player ETO for next season. Next year's salary is $4.25 million. He's not likely to be talked into taking his ETO in favor of signing an extension with a smaller guarantee. (current $4.25 million salary)

    Luc Mbah a Moute - signed a 4-year contract in December of 2011, will be extension eligible next month. His trade value may be relatively low since his stats look like crap but Philly is playing him in hopes of building his trade value up. He's mostly a defensive stopper anyways. Not likely to get much more than the minimum on the free agent market in my opinion, may possibly be interested in getting a couple extra million dollars to be a trade chip for the first month of 2015 free agency. (current $4.383 expiring salary)

    Jonas Jerebko - signed 4-year deal in December of 2011, will be extension eligible next month. Hard for me to gauge his value in 2015 free agency. And I think it may cost more to trade for him than a second rounder. Right now, I don't think he'd be a candidate for a contract with a small guarantee and a large non-guaranteed salary. But who knows? (current $4.5 million expiring salary)

    Chuck Hayes - signed 4-year deal in December of 2011, will be extension eligible next month. Probably doesn't have much trade value nor will he garner much beyond a minimum salary deal in 2015 unless he gets on the court in the playoffs and shows something. May be acquirable for a second rounder into the TPE and may be interested in signing a large salary extension with a small guarantee. (current $5.96 expiring salary)


    Jason Richardson - signed 4-year deal in December of 2011, will be extension eligible next month. Probably doesn't have much trade value nor will he garner much beyond a minimum salary deal in 2015 unless he gets on the court in the playoffs and shows something. Hasn't played in over a year. He's probably acquirable for a second rounder or perhaps nothing and he may very well be interested in pocketing a couple extra million dollars to be a trade chip for a month or so of the 2015 off season. (current $6.6 million expiring salary)

    Wesley Matthews - is extension eligible but not worth talking about. Has too much value in free agency to sign some $2 million guranteed deal. Only including him in list because he is extension eligible.

    Tayshaun Prince - signed 4-year deal in December of 2011, will be extension-eligible next month. Plays for a division competitor. They wouldn't likely trade him here for anything less than a king's ransom and he probably has more value in free agency than a couple million dollars guaranteed. (current expiring $7.7 million salary)

    Marcus Thornton - signed 4-year deal in December of 2011, will be extension-eligible next month. May cost more than a second rounder and too big to fit into exception anyways. Would have to flip Terry plus an asset. And then I suspect Thornton has more value on the free agency market than a couple million guaranteed. (current expiring $8.575 million salary)

    Kendrick Perkins - signed 4-year extension in March of 2011, is extension-eligible next month. Won't fit the TPE. Would cost Terry and another contract out going. Deal unlikely with OKC to begin with. And unlikely Perk would be willing to sign for $2 million to be a trade chip. (current expiring $9.64 million salary)

    Andrei Bargnani - extension signed in July of 2009. Is extension-eligible now. Won't fit TPE. Will cost outgoing salary and not likely to sign for $2 million guaranteed since he can likely get around the MLE next season from somebody wanting a big shooter. (current expiring $11.5 salary)

    Carlos Boozer - has been amnestied and subsequently picked up by the Lakers but as far as I can tell he is extension-eligible (would like confirmation from Bima on this though). If he is extension-eligible he could possibly be acquired at a minimum trade cost and Boozer is one greedy sonofagun that may take a couple extra million dollars if he can see he's only going to get a minimum salary deal next summer. (current expiring $3.251 million salary)

    Amare Stoudamire - And now the big grandaddy extension-eligible contract. Can't put it in the TPE. But could conceivably trade for another expiring contract to add to Kostas and Terry to then trade for Amare later on. But that would be quite complicated. You would basically have to add a Brandon Bass salary into the TPE between now and Dec. 18th and then after 60 days, flip that contract plus Terry and Kostas and one other small contract for Amare's contract. This is possible in theory but would be historic if it happened. You could then conceivably get Amare to agree to a large extension with a small guarantee but not likely.

    However IF you could work out a trade like this and you already had another trade agreed to in principle for say...Goran where PHX gets Kostas, Terrence, Capella, and Bev or perhaps several of those guys go out to other teams for a draft pick or two to send to PHX for Goran...then you could conceivably synergize that trade with an acquisition for Amare by then flipping Amare back out to Philly in conjunction with the acquision of Goran. This could create a TPE of around $20-23 million to use for 2015-16 along with Goran being a Rocket and the roster then re-loaded with guys like Josh Powell, etc. for the playoffs. Simply put...not likely. (current expiring $23.4 million contract)


    ----------------------------------------------------

    Of the above mentioned extension-eligible player I think that Joel Anthony, Luc Mbah A Moute, Chuck Hayes, Jason Richardson, and Carlos Boozer are the guys most likely to accept an extension with a high salary and low guarantee that makes them a trade chip.

    In Chuck's case, he could be very useful for a stretch drive playing behind Dwight in a 3-some pairing with DMo. Chuck may be enough to tide us over defensively with the second unit to get us down the road towards a championship.

    I can also see Boozer being useful in a similar role in the big rotation except his advantage coming offensively with the 17 footer as the 5th offensive option on the floor. But not defensively.

    In Joel Anthony's case, he is a big. He's never been very good. But perhaps he'd give us more as a 7-foot vet presence than we are getting from Black and Dorsey. And I think he is most likely the easiest persuaded to sign a crazy extension.

    Mbah A Moute would have value to us defensively as well and somewhat spreading the floor offensively in our small ball lineups.

    Jason Richardson is a complete waste of a roster spot and money as far as getting a contribution out of him this season.


    And finally, Brendan Haywood already has the type of contract I am describing above. If Cleveland really wants to beat us out in trading for a defensive player perhaps they'd be willing to flip us Haywood's contract. We could use Haywood for 10 minutes filling in for Dwight and his contract is gold, totally non-guaranteed, for next season at over $10 million.


    Long read but submitted for your consideration.
     
    #13 basketballholic, Nov 26, 2014
    Last edited: Nov 26, 2014
  14. mrjohn

    mrjohn Member

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    .....
     
  15. mrjohn

    mrjohn Member

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    Who is the bad player? Javale? If so, I think (if we are excluding salary) he'd be a huge upgrades as backup C. If it is no issue for Les Alexander and we don't have a good way of getting max space this offseason anyway, why wouldn't we acquire him? BTW - the biggest asset in that proposed deal would be acquiring the pick from the Knicks-Nuggets agreement.

    So at worst, Javale would be a decent backup C. And at best, like if he's productive (like a Brandan Wright) we get to flip him for value after we rehabbed him. AND WE GET THAT FIRST ROUND PICK!

    What could we get with that pick, the pels pick and the tpe?

    I don't think you are talking about JJ or West...

    My proposed trade also opens up a roster spot and dumps dorsey - allowing us to add Harrington, buyout vet, etc.
     
  16. DuDDleyDawsonII

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    With Mcgee and D12 on the same team we would have 5-6 goal tending calls a game.
     
  17. finsraider

    finsraider Member

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    I like Ilyasova into the Lin TPE with 1st round swap rights in 2016 (to the Rockets).

    Another version of this would be Papanikolaou for Ilyasova and a top 10 protected 2015 1st.
     
  18. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    Javale has the right body but his head is just not into serious basketball......
     
  19. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    Have you had a chance to look at what Capela is showing down in the D-League? You mentioned what I thought of Brandan Wright. I think Capela, at worst, looks like he will be just as affective.

    From what I've seen, it looks translatable to the NBA in a backup role. I don't think he's ready yet, but I do want the Rockets to give him a realistic shot because getting a player like that on a FOUR YEAR rookie contract to backup Dwight would be a major win for the team to be able to save there and spend elsewhere.

    My opinion is that we need to hold off on spending majorly to backup Dwight just yet. If Capela looks like he can't upgrade Dorsey/Black majorly with his paint presence & rebounding, than maybe later we can look at more high priced options.... McGee being even more expensive than Asik was last year might you (from a cap perspective & last year from a salary perspective).

    As for what you are getting at with the Knicks pick swap, I don't know what you are getting at quite honestly. I'm not sure what makes you think 1st round picks are a definite get to take on McGee's salary? I think a team taking on McGee can potentially get compensated, but I think its a little over aggregious to think 1st rounder is a for sure thing. We don't even know for sure yet if McGee is being aggressively shopped or not. They might not really care about moving his salary.
     
  20. WinkFan

    WinkFan Contributing Member

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    Being a statistics minded chap, I don't think a 10 year veteran whose shot 58% inside of 3 feet for his career is going to continue to shoot 79% this season.

    Jack is a decent backup point guard. He does attack the basket, which we need. However, that's less important if we get Jones back. He'd be more of a sure thing than the Terry/Canaan combo, but I don't think it's worth the salary implications.
     

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