Plans for Rita

TMac640 · Sep 21, 2005

staying , northwest part of houston

if you don give a damn, go'on throw it up

JBIIRockets · Sep 21, 2005

Heading to Burnet, TX. Fortunate that my uncle has a lakehouse on Lake Buchanan.

Dr of Dunk · Sep 21, 2005

JBIIRockets said:

Heading to Burnet, TX. Fortunate that my uncle has a lakehouse on Lake Buchanan.
Click to expand...

I know it's around the Austin area, but... hmm... is a lake a great place to be when hurricanes are about? lol.

Faos · Sep 21, 2005

Memo to self: Buy plywood later this winter, keep it in the garage ready to go for future hurricane seasons.

Rocketman95 · Sep 21, 2005

We're out! See you when we get to Wichita. Everyone be safe. Godspeed.

Cohen · Sep 21, 2005

ChenZhen said:

Not sure if anyone posted this yet from the chron in february.

wost possible scenario

Models show 'massive devastation' in Houston
Damages could cost up to $50 billion -- 10 times Allison's cost
By ERIC BERGER
Copyright 2005 Houston Chronicle

Houston's perfect storm would feed on late summer's warm waters as it barreled northward across the Gulf of Mexico, slamming into the coast near Freeport.

A landfall here would allow its powerful upper-right quadrant, where the waves move in the same direction as the storm, to overflow Galveston Bay. Within an hour or two, a storm surge, topping out at 20 feet or more, would flood the homes of 600,000 people in Harris County. The surge also would block the natural drainage of flooded inland bayous and streams for a day or more.

Coastal residents who ignored warnings to flee would have no hope of escape as waters swelled and winds roiled around their homes. Very likely, hundreds, perhaps even thousands, would die.

Meanwhile, as the storm moved over western Harris County, its most dangerous winds, well in excess of 120 mph even inland, would lash the Interstate 45 corridor, including Clear Lake, the Texas Medical Center and downtown.

Many older buildings could not withstand such winds.

Anything not tied down, from trees to mobile homes to light poles, would become missiles, surreally tumbling and flying through the air, flattening small houses, shattering skyscraper windows and puncturing roofs.

"Unfortunately, we're looking at massive devastation," said Roy Dodson, president of the engineering firm Dodson & Associates, which Harris County asked to model realistic "worst-case scenarios" for a major hurricane hitting the area.

Dodson's firm modeled more than 100 storms of varying power, speed and landfall. It concluded that a large Category 4 or Category 5 -- a storm only moderately larger than the four that struck Florida last summer -- would cause as much as $40 billion to $50 billion in damage. That's 10 times the cost of Tropical Storm Allison and approximately the city of Houston's entire budget for the next 15 years.

And this wasn't an academic exercise. Of the 17 Category 4 and Category 5 storms that have struck the United States since 1900, three, all Category 4 storms, have hit the Greater Houston area -- unnamed storms in 1900 and 1915 and Carla in 1961.

Coastal development

With considerable coastal development since then and lower elevations because of groundwater pumping, no one knows what will happen when a major storm hits. But what's clear is that models of a hurricane's three modes of destruction -- winds, storm surge and inland flooding from heavy rainfall -- offer little comfort.

With sustained winds between 131 mph and 155 mph, the power of a Category 4 storm exceeds that of most building codes.

Houston's commercial building rules call for structures to withstand three-second bursts of at least 110 mph, said Dennis Wittry, managing director of Houston Structural Operations at Walter P. Moore, an engineering firm.

Newer skyscrapers, including many built during Houston's downtown boom in the '80s, were modeled in wind tunnels to determine their performance in extreme weather events. Most should survive the storm, Wittry said. And the downtown window loss like that experienced during Hurricane Alicia, a Category 3 storm that struck in 1983, actually could be less in a bigger storm.

That's because roofs that were then anchored by gravel -- which become bullets in high winds -- are now held down by specialized concrete that should not blow off, Wittry said.

Residential homes, built with less exacting standards and lesser materials, would fare worse.

"You'll definitely see more significant damage in residential construction," he said. "Lower-end homes, or some homes in older areas, would probably be completely destroyed."

Tie-downs, a structural device that prevents wind blowing over a structure, creating a vortex and sucking off the roof, have been mandatory only since the late 1980s, Wittry said.

Various studies of a large storm hitting the Houston area have estimated that 100,000 to 125,000 homes would be destroyed.

20-foot wall of water

More devastation would be caused by winds blowing over the Gulf of Mexico and pushing surface water inland -- creating up to a 20-foot storm surge. Such a wall of water would swamp most development near Galveston Bay, including Texas City, Kemah and Johnson Space Center. Varying levels of water would flood much of the area between Sam Houston Parkway and the bay.

On Galveston Island, the seawall could hold back much of the storm surge, but at some point the water would creep onto the island from the bay side. The island's highest point is just 22 feet above sea level.

Much like a river becomes deeper and more turbulent when it narrows, a storm surge also can increase in height and intensity when its source of water narrows. Dodson said this has profound implications for the Port of Houston. Some models ended with a 30-foot wall of water in the Ship Channel near the port's turning basin, he said. "It would be huge," he said. "It could overwhelm chemical storage facilities, water treatment plants and other sensitive areas."

The port's severe-weather plan calls for most cargo ships to exit the facility and weather the storm at sea in preparation for the possibility of flooded buildings.

Wave modeling
Another, perhaps even-now-unanticipated effect is large waves accompanying the storm surge.

A waves expert at Texas A&M University at Galveston, Vijay Panchang, said he and colleagues were surprised when they observed wave data associated with Hurricane Ivan shortly before it slammed into Alabama last September.

A wave-measuring buoy about 60 miles south of Dauphin Island, before it snapped, registered an average wave height of about 50 feet, Panchang said. That means the biggest waves were a staggering 100 feet tall. Such wave heights, according to his modeling, should only occur every 300 years or so.

Either Ivan's waves were a freak event, or hurricane forecasters may need to adjust their wave expectations for large storms in the warm Gulf waters.

"This is from a storm that hit only a few hundred miles to the east of us," he said. "There's nothing to say that another storm won't create really big waves for us."

These large waves caused by Ivan may have been as responsible, if not more so, than the storm surge for severely damaging the I-10 bridge bear Pensacola, Fla., Panchang said.

Surprises after landfall

Engineers and forecasters say the most unpredictable element of a storm comes after landfall, when it either dumps rain and floods creeks and bayous or moves quickly enough that relatively little rain falls.

Tropical Storm Allison probably isn't a good model for what to expect. The system was so poorly organized and slow moving that some hurricane forecasters say it wasn't a tropical storm. In some areas of the city, enough rain fell to classify Allison as a 10,000-year rainfall event. Still, because a large hurricane's storm surge likely would block the flow of bayou waters into Galveston Bay, any significant rainfall could back up into inland streets and homes quickly, Dodson said.

The last major hurricane most Houston residents remember was Alicia, which made landfall on the west end of Galveston Island in August 1983.

Unfortunately, planners say, as devastating as that storm was, it's a poor predictor of what to expect from a larger, Category 4 or bigger storm.

Alicia's highest sustained winds on land were measured at 96 mph. Most of the Greater Houston area received just 5 inches of rain. Storm surges across much of the area were less than 10 feet, although Seabrook measured 12 feet.

The storm spawned 23 tornadoes, killed 21 people and destroyed 2,300 homes.

"Alicia was a marginal Category 3," Dodson said. "Its rainfall doesn't come close to this area's top 20 historical floods.

"I guess what I'm saying is that I hope people don't ignore evacuation warnings because they remember that things weren't apocalyptic during Alicia."

eric.berger@chron.com
Click to expand...

That really really sucks.

Blatz · Sep 21, 2005

I'm about to head out the door now. Good luck

Two Sandwiches · Sep 21, 2005

Any reports of how the damage will be in the Magnolia area? Where's Codell?

Stay safe guys.

SWTsig · Sep 22, 2005

i really wanna leave right now, but i need to get some sleep.

what can ya do, right? i will be gone by noon though.

LongTimeFan · Sep 22, 2005

I'm not in Houston, but my family is and they decided to stay. I'm just worried because we live on a lake (not very big though) - so I'm hoping it doesn't flood up to our house.

Good luck to all of you -- stay safe.

B-ball freak · Sep 22, 2005

Faos said:

Memo to self: Buy plywood later this winter, keep it in the garage ready to go for future hurricane seasons.
Click to expand...

My thoughts exactly.

AMS · Sep 22, 2005

so far still at home, maybe well leave early tommorow morning
maybe, maybe no

Baqui99 · Sep 22, 2005

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/story?section=traffic&id=3266799

You can pull down different traffic cams around the city to get a better idea of where the gridlock is. Looks like there's a mass exodus of people trying to get the f*ck out.

BigM · Sep 22, 2005

i was supposed to go to college station where my buddy lives but i'm almost as scared of the traffic as i am rita. i have a little civic with a full tank ready to go but i don't know how long the trip to college station is right now. i hear dallas is 8 hours.

if i stay i'm worried about my car getting flooded or more likely something hitting it. i have the option of putting it in a parking garage in greenwood plaza but not too sure how safe it would be there with the winds.

IROC it · Sep 22, 2005

BigM said:

i hear dallas is 8 hours.
Click to expand...

My dad has gone from Lake Jackson to Conroe (just 84 miles) in 11 hours...

At that rate, it is a 25+ hour trip from Houston to Dallas by car.

Go west! You have 36 hrs+ before the outer bands of the storm begins to hit, so GO!

DonnyMost · Sep 22, 2005

Just finished boarding up my windows as best I could.. move all my valuables into the bathroom.. now im getting the hell out of dodge (as it would seem) to Beaumont to spend the powerless nights with my family. Best of luck to everyone.. on the brightside, we've got something to talk about from now until the Rockets win the 2006 championship. right?

BigM · Sep 22, 2005

IROC it said:

My dad has gone from Lake Jackson to Conroe (just 84 miles) in 11 hours...

At that rate, it is a 25+ hour trip from Houston to Dallas by car.

Go west! You have 36 hrs+ before the outer bands of the storm begins to hit, so GO!
Click to expand...

it has to get better the further north you get right? maybe only an 18-20 hour journey. my only options are riding it out in h-town or college station. my mom has a townhouse over on tanglewilde and westpark that i might head to if i don't think it's safe here. the worst part, imo, will be the inevitable loss of power when this thing passes.

DonnyMost · Sep 22, 2005

ok so I loaded everything up into my truck and I was ready to go home.. and I just came down with the worst stomach cramps ever.. i've turned completely pale.. i think i might be getting incredibly sick.. i feel like I want to barf. I tried to start driving but the pain was just unbearable.. looks like im stuck here now, for better or worse..

X-PAC · Sep 22, 2005

Plans for Rita
Click to expand...

Faos · Sep 22, 2005

DonnyMost said:

Jnow im getting the hell out of dodge (as it would seem) to Beaumont to spend the powerless nights with my family.
Click to expand...

I might have heard wrong, but isn't Beaumont now under a mandatory evacuation? I think this happened after the slight shift ocurred last night.

Forums

Plans for Rita

TMac640 Contributing Member

JBIIRockets Member

Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

Faos Member

Rocketman95 Hangout Boy

Cohen Member

Blatz Member

Two Sandwiches Member

SWTsig Member

LongTimeFan Member

B-ball freak Member

AMS Member

Baqui99 Member

BigM Member

IROC it Member

DonnyMost Member
Supporting Member

BigM Member

DonnyMost Member
Supporting Member

X-PAC Member

Faos Member

Share This Page

About ClutchFans

Rockets Content

Support ClutchFans!

Plans for Rita

TMac640 Contributing Member

JBIIRockets Member

Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

Faos Member

Rocketman95 Hangout Boy

Cohen Member

Blatz Member

Two Sandwiches Member

SWTsig Member

LongTimeFan Member

B-ball freak Member

AMS Member

Baqui99 Member

BigM Member

IROC it Member

DonnyMost Member Supporting Member

BigM Member

DonnyMost Member Supporting Member

X-PAC Member

Faos Member

Share This Page

DonnyMost Member
Supporting Member

DonnyMost Member
Supporting Member