I'm in West Houston, my wife and I are leaving. My parents and my brothers family live in Deer Park, and they're all planning to stay with a family friend in Dallas. They're already going to have about 15 people at that house, so my wife and I are probably just going to keep driving until we get to the in-laws house in Nebraska. Gonna be a b**** of a drive I'm sure.
Thank goodness. It looks like my office will be closing after all. There was a question because we are a 24 hour emergency service that backs up our clients, both internal and external. We have run uninterupted for almost 10 years and the execs have no contingency plan for OUR backup. I will be headed, with the wife and kids, to Denton tomorrow at noon.
Fill Up your bathtubs with water before it starts flooding. This can be used for cooking, drinking, and such if you have gas stoves. Boil the water, and use it.... better than having contaminated flood water.
Not sure if anyone posted this yet from the chron in february. wost possible scenario Models show 'massive devastation' in Houston Damages could cost up to $50 billion -- 10 times Allison's cost By ERIC BERGER Copyright 2005 Houston Chronicle Houston's perfect storm would feed on late summer's warm waters as it barreled northward across the Gulf of Mexico, slamming into the coast near Freeport. A landfall here would allow its powerful upper-right quadrant, where the waves move in the same direction as the storm, to overflow Galveston Bay. Within an hour or two, a storm surge, topping out at 20 feet or more, would flood the homes of 600,000 people in Harris County. The surge also would block the natural drainage of flooded inland bayous and streams for a day or more. Coastal residents who ignored warnings to flee would have no hope of escape as waters swelled and winds roiled around their homes. Very likely, hundreds, perhaps even thousands, would die. Meanwhile, as the storm moved over western Harris County, its most dangerous winds, well in excess of 120 mph even inland, would lash the Interstate 45 corridor, including Clear Lake, the Texas Medical Center and downtown. Many older buildings could not withstand such winds. Anything not tied down, from trees to mobile homes to light poles, would become missiles, surreally tumbling and flying through the air, flattening small houses, shattering skyscraper windows and puncturing roofs. "Unfortunately, we're looking at massive devastation," said Roy Dodson, president of the engineering firm Dodson & Associates, which Harris County asked to model realistic "worst-case scenarios" for a major hurricane hitting the area. Dodson's firm modeled more than 100 storms of varying power, speed and landfall. It concluded that a large Category 4 or Category 5 -- a storm only moderately larger than the four that struck Florida last summer -- would cause as much as $40 billion to $50 billion in damage. That's 10 times the cost of Tropical Storm Allison and approximately the city of Houston's entire budget for the next 15 years. And this wasn't an academic exercise. Of the 17 Category 4 and Category 5 storms that have struck the United States since 1900, three, all Category 4 storms, have hit the Greater Houston area -- unnamed storms in 1900 and 1915 and Carla in 1961. Coastal development With considerable coastal development since then and lower elevations because of groundwater pumping, no one knows what will happen when a major storm hits. But what's clear is that models of a hurricane's three modes of destruction -- winds, storm surge and inland flooding from heavy rainfall -- offer little comfort. With sustained winds between 131 mph and 155 mph, the power of a Category 4 storm exceeds that of most building codes. Houston's commercial building rules call for structures to withstand three-second bursts of at least 110 mph, said Dennis Wittry, managing director of Houston Structural Operations at Walter P. Moore, an engineering firm. Newer skyscrapers, including many built during Houston's downtown boom in the '80s, were modeled in wind tunnels to determine their performance in extreme weather events. Most should survive the storm, Wittry said. And the downtown window loss like that experienced during Hurricane Alicia, a Category 3 storm that struck in 1983, actually could be less in a bigger storm. That's because roofs that were then anchored by gravel -- which become bullets in high winds -- are now held down by specialized concrete that should not blow off, Wittry said. Residential homes, built with less exacting standards and lesser materials, would fare worse. "You'll definitely see more significant damage in residential construction," he said. "Lower-end homes, or some homes in older areas, would probably be completely destroyed." Tie-downs, a structural device that prevents wind blowing over a structure, creating a vortex and sucking off the roof, have been mandatory only since the late 1980s, Wittry said. Various studies of a large storm hitting the Houston area have estimated that 100,000 to 125,000 homes would be destroyed. 20-foot wall of water More devastation would be caused by winds blowing over the Gulf of Mexico and pushing surface water inland -- creating up to a 20-foot storm surge. Such a wall of water would swamp most development near Galveston Bay, including Texas City, Kemah and Johnson Space Center. Varying levels of water would flood much of the area between Sam Houston Parkway and the bay. On Galveston Island, the seawall could hold back much of the storm surge, but at some point the water would creep onto the island from the bay side. The island's highest point is just 22 feet above sea level. Much like a river becomes deeper and more turbulent when it narrows, a storm surge also can increase in height and intensity when its source of water narrows. Dodson said this has profound implications for the Port of Houston. Some models ended with a 30-foot wall of water in the Ship Channel near the port's turning basin, he said. "It would be huge," he said. "It could overwhelm chemical storage facilities, water treatment plants and other sensitive areas." The port's severe-weather plan calls for most cargo ships to exit the facility and weather the storm at sea in preparation for the possibility of flooded buildings. Wave modeling Another, perhaps even-now-unanticipated effect is large waves accompanying the storm surge. A waves expert at Texas A&M University at Galveston, Vijay Panchang, said he and colleagues were surprised when they observed wave data associated with Hurricane Ivan shortly before it slammed into Alabama last September. A wave-measuring buoy about 60 miles south of Dauphin Island, before it snapped, registered an average wave height of about 50 feet, Panchang said. That means the biggest waves were a staggering 100 feet tall. Such wave heights, according to his modeling, should only occur every 300 years or so. Either Ivan's waves were a freak event, or hurricane forecasters may need to adjust their wave expectations for large storms in the warm Gulf waters. "This is from a storm that hit only a few hundred miles to the east of us," he said. "There's nothing to say that another storm won't create really big waves for us." These large waves caused by Ivan may have been as responsible, if not more so, than the storm surge for severely damaging the I-10 bridge bear Pensacola, Fla., Panchang said. Surprises after landfall Engineers and forecasters say the most unpredictable element of a storm comes after landfall, when it either dumps rain and floods creeks and bayous or moves quickly enough that relatively little rain falls. Tropical Storm Allison probably isn't a good model for what to expect. The system was so poorly organized and slow moving that some hurricane forecasters say it wasn't a tropical storm. In some areas of the city, enough rain fell to classify Allison as a 10,000-year rainfall event. Still, because a large hurricane's storm surge likely would block the flow of bayou waters into Galveston Bay, any significant rainfall could back up into inland streets and homes quickly, Dodson said. The last major hurricane most Houston residents remember was Alicia, which made landfall on the west end of Galveston Island in August 1983. Unfortunately, planners say, as devastating as that storm was, it's a poor predictor of what to expect from a larger, Category 4 or bigger storm. Alicia's highest sustained winds on land were measured at 96 mph. Most of the Greater Houston area received just 5 inches of rain. Storm surges across much of the area were less than 10 feet, although Seabrook measured 12 feet. The storm spawned 23 tornadoes, killed 21 people and destroyed 2,300 homes. "Alicia was a marginal Category 3," Dodson said. "Its rainfall doesn't come close to this area's top 20 historical floods. "I guess what I'm saying is that I hope people don't ignore evacuation warnings because they remember that things weren't apocalyptic during Alicia." eric.berger@chron.com
Man, this is just wrong... Well, my parents and my sister live in Pasadena. I offered them to come up to Dallas, but it's going to be a last minute decision before they get out of Dodge....
My girlfriend literally cried and begged for me to with her to Dallas last night. I'm probably going to leave this evening just to know 100% that my car won't get flooded out or have a smashed windshield.
Well, it looks like I'll be staying in town after all. My parents, brother and sister in-law and their daughter all live in Deer Park, so they'll have to get out of there. The problem is my sister in law is nearly 9 months pregnant, and her doctor reccomended that she doesnt leave the area. They need someplace to stay and since I live on the west side of Houston, everyone is coming to my house. Hopefully we're safe. Maybe we should start a new thread a few days from now for the people that are staying, so we can keep tabs on everyone.
I'll be in Friendswood, inflatable dingy in hand... unless my office building has damage and we have to move our servers to Chicago.
As the day looms longer, I grow a little bit more fearful of this storm. My condo is on the second floor which is nice, but I worry about the wind, and if there is anything I can do. I wonder if I should board up the windows? I guess I am at a loss of what to do. I think my dad says that he will stick it out in NW Houston, but Im worried. I think I may get the hell outta dodge.....
Does anyone live inside the loop/midtown/museum district area? If so are you evacuating? I planned on leaving for Austin on Saturday Morning, but it doesn't seem like that may happen...So I may stay...
Tweez- Thats where my condo is - midtown. Luckily its vacant because of renovations, but Im getting out of Dodge just in case..... Im taping up the windows I think and just covering the appliances and things like that.
OK, as I stated earlier, we're planning on going to Wichita tonight. What will driving back be like if we hit the remnants of Rita? Thanks.
Good luck man, we still haven't ruled out taking off. I just don't want to test this monster if I don't have to. Traffic is going to be a b**** getting out of town, you'll get there eventually though.
I plan on working. We will be simulcasting the 4 stations, commercial free, with wall-to-wall coverage if the doomsday scenario that everyone is predicting actually happens. So tune in to SportsRadio 610 if you are riding it out. clm
I have a route in mind that might not make it too bad. We'll see. I'm also not sharing. Seriously, e-mail me if you want it if you take off. Where in Nebraska are you going? Will coming back through Rita completely suck? We have four options at our disposal right now, with Wichita leading the pack.
I dunno, but the last place I'd want to be in a 140 mph hurricane would be a place named "The Woodlands". Trees, dude... treeeees! Actually the wind force should be reduced quite a bit up there, but in a Cat4-Cat5, I would think you're still looking at 80-90 mph winds at least.
In Austin stores are running low on water, propane, and there are no portable generators remaining in Texas. Be sure to turn the temp down on your Refrigerators and Freezers.
Told my sister in Kingwood the same thing last night. They'll be on their way to Austin soon. Pine trees have shallow roots.
