We are sitting in 10th right now. looking at the teams below us, i feel as if we can pass minny, and boston. that would leave us in 8th. we happen to be very lucky that seattle and orlando are both playing good basketball right now. if they keep it up (and we keep it down ) we can still pass them too. so since we will land between 6-10 i figured that it would be nice to take a look back at the last 10 years of picks between #6 and #10. here they are: '96 - Antoine Walker, Lorenzen Wright, Kerry Kittles, Samaki Walker, Erick Dampier '97 - Ron Mercer, Tim Thomas, Adonal Foyle, Tracy McGrady, Danny Fortson '98 - Robert Traylor, Jason Williams, Larry Hughes, Dirk Nowitzki, Paul Pierce '99 - Wally Szczerbiak, Richard Hamilton, Andre Miller, Shawn Marion, Jason Terry '00 - DerMarr Johnson, Chris Mihm, Jamal Crawford, Joel Przybilla, Keyon Dooling '01 - Shane Battier, Eddie Griffin, Sagana Diop, Rodney White, Joe Johnson '02 - Dajuan Wagner, Nene, Chris Wilcox, Amare Stoudemire, Caron Butler '03 - Chris Kaman, Kirk Hinrich, TJ Ford, Mike Sweetney, Jarvis Hayes '04 - Josh Childress, Luol Deng, Rafael Araujo, Andre Iguodala, Luke Jackson '05 - Martell Webster, Charlie Villanueva, Channing Frye, Ike Diogu, Andrew Bynum now just for fun lets do a completely unscientific guestimate of how good each pick has been, in order to project how good our pick will be. i will give 4 points for each pick that is a superstar, 3 for an all-star, 2 for a starter, and 1 for a rotation player. 0 points will be given if the guy doesn't get any playing time. #6 averaged: 1.4, solid bench contributer. #7 averaged: 2.1, a legit starter. #8 averaged: 1.6, can start on a bad team but would make a better 6th man. #9 averaged: 2.3, a legit starter. #10 averaged: 1.9, starting calibur or great 6th man. the weird thing about this totally unscientific guestimation is that we are better off moving up only one spot than tanking into the 6th pick. we are also basically equal if we stay put or move up to #7. i guess in late lotto it's better to have another team make the tough choice (and usually get it wrong). anyway here's to us crashing the lotto! good luck ROX!
Logically, it's always better to have the highest pick possible. Historically, it might be that teams with the 7th pick got a better player than teams with the 6th pick (in hindsight). But that doesn't mean it's more advantageous for a team to have the 7th pick.
6-10 are all good picks...The position is not as important as the analysis that goes behind the pick and the person behind the choice...For example look at Phoenix (Amare & Marion), both are superstars...likely meaning the person sitting in the front office making draft decisions for Phoenix is very knowledgable about what he's doing. I don't think it has much to do with moving up one spot or down...it's the people making the choices that matters most...Right now I would pay the guy in Phoenix to tell us who to draft.
Just taking a stab at it without looking online. Adonal Foyle Dirk Nowitzki (Drafted by Bucks but traded on Draft Day) Paul Pierce Shawn Marion Shane Battier Amare Stoudemire Kris Kaman Kirk Hinrich TJ Ford Josh Childress Luol Deng Rafael Araujo Andre Iguodala Martell Webster Charlie Villanueva Channing Frye Ike Diogu Andrew Bynum
The idea of adding the talents of Samaki Walker and Tractor Traylor are enough to make my mouth drool. Bring on the draft!!
I kind of hope that the Andrea Bargnani Italian guy falls to wherever we pick. On the one hand, I know it's stupid to keep hoping for Peja/Dirk clones given more recently we have gotten mediocre players, but when a guy is 6-11 and his upside is Dirk, well... But as has been mentioned, 6-10 should net us a good pick, theoretically...
Nice analysis. The chance of us landing an impact player is much better than I was originally thinking. It is funny how many people only pick out the flops considering how many GREAT players are historically available. I feel much more optimistic now after seeing your list. Thanks.
very intersting post the 5-10 players have a big impact on todays game hopefully we will pick someone for the future last years picks were bad tho...
I'm so glad the rockets got in on all those good players, i think the one player that we drafted from that list (eddie griffin) is one of the worst up there. Love those talent scouts!
By looking at that list, one might say that taking a guard or swingman at that position is a little safer than taking a big man. Seems like the major bigs on that list (Dirk, Marion, Amare) were all riskier picks that payed off. On the contrary, there seems to be 1-2 star guard/forward players per year at the 6-10 slots.
But isn't this supposed to be the worst draft in the last 10 years? If it ends up being nearly that bad things don't look too good.
Very intriguing guy. I've been on the high horse about our SG problems for a long time but if this guys falls to #10, we might take him. No mock drafts that I've seen have him falling that low. Another "PF" we should look at if he is available at #10 is Joakim Noah, but he may not come out. These mock drafts that put Tyrus Thomas at #1 are just crazy, in-the-heat-of-the-moment snapshots. No way he goes #1. I like him though, and we should take him at #10 if he falls that low.
You should check out the 2000 draft..ugh.. This year isn't horrible or anything - the talent is all proven because of the new rules, so it'll be easier to scout players like Rudy Gay/Adam Morrison as opposed to a Kwame Brown or something in the past. But there isn't any elite, franchise guys like Duncan/Iverson/LeBron in this draft, just a bunch of guys that'll be really good 2nd or 3rd options - which is actually better for the Rockets at #10.
From earlier poster: "I'm so glad the rockets got in on all those good players, i think the one player that we drafted from that list (eddie griffin) is one of the worst up there. Love those talent scouts!" I am sorry it worked that way on Griffin. Keep in mind a 1st round pick is a guaranteed rookie contract. At the time we traded 3 #1 picks for a big man that many thought highly of -I thought was a smart move. I rememember exactly where I was when I heard about the trade that got us Griffin-at Lowe's in Baytown picking up a lawnmower for my father in law. Exciting. So disappointing.....
Actually, 1-10 are similar. Thomas PF Morrison SF Gay SF Aldridge PF McRoberts PF Carney SF Roy SG Foye PG Reddick SG Brewer SG Williams PF Noah PF All of them are in the same level. The key is which position Rox need, SF backup T-Mac? SG replace Wesley? PG replace Alston? or PF? Alston is not bad in 1 with ~4M a year Bogans can play like B-Bowen in 2 T-Mac in 3 JH in 4 Yao in 5 Head is the 6th. from bench to play 1, 2, 3 Swift is the 7th. to play 4 and 5 The Greece or sura can backup PG I think McRoberts is the most fitable in Rox rotation to play 3 or 4 JJ is the 2nd who can afford outside guns.
