They clinched their division and won a playoff game with a third-string, fifth round rookie QB… Yes, *all* teams lose players to injury; but I think you’d be hard-pressed to name the team that overcame losing their starting QB (as we did in 2011) and/or their most important defensive player* (as we did in 2012) and still won championships. Sure, you can fill *some* spots and not miss a beat – but when you lose an exceptionally great player (or a very good player at an exceptionally important position), it’s a little too far-fetched to assume most teams but the Texans have a Pro Bowler on the bench ready to roll out. *I realize he’s not the *best* defensive player; but I think he’s the most valuable in terms of what Cushing allows the defense to do around him.
Schaub in the red zone last year: 28/49; 174 yards; 14 TDs; 1 INT (95.5). Overall, the team averaged 26 points/game, 8th-best in the NFL. And most consider 2012 a down year, offensively, including a late season fade from Schaub. Prior to the first NE game, Houston ranked 2nd in the NFL in red zone scoring, TDs only (2.3), trailing only the Patriots. They had a really bad stretch; people need to try and get over it....
I was responding to your post regarding QB ratings. I don't disagree with your view that Schaub is "good." Although with the emergence of Kapernick, Wilson, Luck, and RG3, he seems more average now than above-average I had him earlier. But yes, the Texans are a top-10 team. The question is, is that what you're satisfied with?
I have said it before many times that I thought Schaub with our 2011 team would've been elite. Great shot at winning it all. The problem is we don't have that team anymore. We have the 2012 team except with everyone older and minor tweaks that likely won't affect our win total. And we can't expect Watt to repeat last year either. Last year Matt Schaub WAS HEALTHY and we were destroyed. I know footballoutsiders isn't a popular site here, but that site's rankings had the Texans #1 when they were 7-3 with Schuab last year. This year, Texans rank were consistently in the 6-8 area despite being 10-1 or however well we started. But honestly, I could see in my eyes that we were as good this year. Foster wasn't getting yards. Schaub looked tentative when the PA wasn't working. A lot of late season issues appeared throughout the season. The only difference is that we started losing.
Well, no. I think most people here would want us to be number one. But there is definitely some parity when it comes to the playoffs. And a top ten team always has a shot to get on a hot streak and win it all. And to be honest...Wilson and RG3 impressed me a lot more than Luck last year.
I'm not so sure he was healthy at the end of the year, but I get what you're saying. If he can't do damage in the playoffs this year, then it is time to draft a legit qb prospect with a high 2014 pick. And never underestimate growth from players within the organization. The right side of the line scuffled last year. The young guys were thrown into the fire. But Brandon Brooks is extremely talented and Ben Jones has a shot to be good as well. I also think a Newton and Brennan Williams battle for RT can only increase competition and make each guy better. Then you still have Myers at C and Duane at LT with Wade Smith at RG with Quessenberry, etc. breathing down his neck. You have Mercilus, a raw guy with high upside and a year in an NFL program, going into his second year and your stud ILB Cushing coming back ready to rip heads off. You also have a solid veteran piece in Reed added to the back end with a high pick in Swearinger filling in that 3rd safety role (pretty much a starter) over roster filler in Keo. You have added legitimate weapons for the pass rush in Montgomery and Williams. Not to mention you finally add a number two with some potential to go along with Andre, Foster, OD, and so on. Hopefully Tate can stay healthy this year and bring it like he did in 2011-12. Oh and Watt probably won't get 20 something sacks again, but he will still be dominant. There is no question about that in my mind.
Guess where they had Baltimore ranked at the end of the regular season? (8th) I think there's far too much doom, gloom and entitlement around here. Do I think the Texans are a lock to go 12-4 and challenge for the AFC championship? No... as you mentioned, they looked like a night-and-day different team down the stretch for no logical reason. (Unless the loss of Cushing finally caught up to them and/or Schaub was either hurt or playing without his man parts.) But the overwhelming evidence is that the team is very good and should be a contender next year. Splitting hairs about how strong their contender status - while, sure: great fodder is a long offseason - ultimately seems silly to me. The teams we generally think of as great rarely win it all. Get to the playoffs, catch a few breaks and see what happens... not sure we can ask much more that that.
You go with that safer route of being a perennial playoff contender, like the Steelers, Patriots, or Packers. Where you mostly recruit players who fit into your system well, or if you have a chance at getting a franchise player...you obviously build around them for the time being. This is for any team, I feel like you have to keep adjusting and adapting your team to new strategies and sometimes go after more talented players who may not fit your system, but you could build around.
Would agree that Hey Now put in work in this thread (Though still a bit over-reactive against the "negative sentiment", but can admit it can get unnerving) Made easier when weak arguments are presented of HAVING to see a SIGNATURE-ELITE-IDENTIFIABLE-TRAIT of a team before giving them credit as a true Super Bowl contender. I'll give primtim24 some benefit the doubt there, it is very PLAUSIBLE that is needed. It does help for an already good team to have an elite unit. If the Texans need an elite unit or TIMELY ELITE play from a unit for the SB, then that's fair to say. Though I just hope its not making it like the Texans are NOT in POSITION to have one. Or like they're MILES AWAY from it. Can see that the Texans are close to that or right there, and have already shown they CAN have elite production. And its also the Texans arent fully a "1-trick pony" team in that regard. The Detroit Lions and Saints last year had elite offenses, great passing. And it didnt mean squat diddle toward a playoffs berth, the Lions only had 4 wins. I have more confidence in the defense improving than the offense. But defense and a little special teams help might be all thats needed. And no I don't think it requires a risky high upside move move instead of a safe move. I think the risks need to be a bit calculated
It's hard to say where the Texans will end up, I have to say no matter how good the defense is or the skill players become, I do kind of feel like it's all in Matt Schaub's hand to an extent. How well do you guys think he ranks with QBs, such as Ryan, Flacco, Wilson, Kaepernick, or Luck? I cannot put my finger on it, but Schaub is missing something those guys have.
I would, based on how he played the second half of the season. Longest throw I remember was the bomb to KW against Denver.
Ravens had the ultimate "stat can be misleading" team. They had a feast or famine QB who was great at home and horrible on the road traditional. They had a veteran team who knew how to step it up in the playoffs. They had a coach that was willing to make changes as necessary, such as firing his OC midway through the season when things sucked. When was the last time you thought the Texans under Kubiak at the potential to outplay their talent? That they had the "intangibles" factor going for them? Sure, intangibles may be overrated with role players in basketball, but it's a hell of a lot more tangible in the NFL. When Morey was asked how the Rockets could beat the Thunder, and he answered by saying they need to increase the variance. Well, the Texans system under Kubiak is the shining example of how to minimize variance. As in, the Texans system do their best to minimize losses to teams worse than them, and their best to minimize their wins to teams better than them. That is the opposite of what Ravens do.
By and large, Schaub is accurate and efficient. When he's playing well, he completes a high % of passes for a very good YPA and doesn't turn the ball over. Career-wise, I think he's been a *consistently* better QB than Flacco - but if Flacco's postseason run wasn't a fluke, he's jumped ahead because that guy was out of mind last winter. But Joe Flacco has *never* had a stretch of football that good so we'll see where he ends up. Ryan is the best of the bunch for now, IMO. Jury is out on Wilson, Kaepernick and Luck. If 2012 wasn't a fluke (including Flacco's postseason run), they're all better QBs than Schaub. And, collectively, they've won 1 more SB... I think between the Texans' contender status and Schaub, far too many people are prematurely ripping the emergency brake. There's reason for concern - but just as much reason for optimisim, IMO.
How convenient... They were 3-3 in the postseason between 2009-11 (1-1 each year), with no Super Bowl appearences. That's not really stepping it up. And this year, they gave up 31+ points in 2 of their playoff wins - so it's not like the veterans (who are mostly of the defensive side) buckled down and carried the team. They got healthy, which helped, and their QB went on an historic run, a stretch *no one* thought he was even remotely capable of. And, frankly - they caught some breaks, most notably, the premature leap in the Denver game that left Jacoby all alone for a TD. Well, it wasn't midway - it was after week 14, and I think the Ravens' decision is being overtly-romanticized. They weren't a high-powered offense that pulled the trigger the second things went wrong. In (nearly) five seasons under Cameron, the Ravens' offense never ranked higher than 13th, and their passing offense never ranked higher than 15th. On average, they ranked 17th overall, and 20th passing. Firing him down the stretch of a season quickly imploding took *some* guts... but he'd been a mediocre coordinator for many, many years and his star pupil, Flacco, never ascended beyond average overall. I don't believe intangibles have ever won a football game. As for outplaying their talent, they clinched a division, beat three playoff teams and won a wild card game with a third-string rookie QB under center two years ago. Id' say then.
I think where you and I basically disagree in our assement on the team rest in this statement. I agree with this statement entirely. Which is why I'm pessimistic about the Texans future. Because I also feel like we have to go on a historical, unlikely run to win a SB. Whereas you take it as the Texans have a good chance because they're in the mix. And that they can achieve Baltimore-like success in the future.
The thing is, most Superbowl champions do go on historical unlikely runs to win the Superbowl. It's becoming the norm instead of the exception. Hell, look at the last 3 winners: 10-6 Ravens (4 seed) 9-7 Giants (4 seed) 10-6 Packers (6 seed) Was anyone picking any of those teams to win the Superbowl when the playoffs started? While I'm a little less willing to blow off how the Texans finished the season last year than Hey Now is, I get his point. Just get to the playoffs and go from there.
