All great points.. I applaud you and I enjoy all your posts in the Texans forum. I will take a step back now!
I just want to give Hey Now! some props! It's so much easier to just diss a given team (the Texans in this case) than it is to defend one; even when they just posted a 12-4 season. Dude has consistently given good reasons and solid stats to back up his position of optimism amidst a disproportional barrage of negativity. I would never have the patience to entertain so much unwarranted hate. Not to mention the Psychological expertize that seems to be called for. To even mention that Schaub has had some good games and might even be an above average QB is to have your words twisted in to the christening of him as an elite QB and a never ending deluge of Brady, Aaron and Manning comparisons. I can't speak for Hey Now, but I too am optimistic about the upcoming season. Too many of you forget that Schaub was coming off a tough injury last year. I know that injury has been easily forgotten as he started the first half of the next season well - but to me, it seemed obvious he was more tentative (than yes, usual) as the season winded on and he started getting hammered due to a less than stable offensive line. It pains me, but Schaub did seem to crumble. Still, I do not see it as an accurate indicator of how he can lead the team in to this next season. It's not like we have any other viable options without starting from scratch. Hopefully Kubes will look to vary his game plans a little next year. Hopefully Son of Bum, with the help of Ed Reed, will have the defense better prepared for the inevitable trickery the likes of Billicheck will throw at the defense. Those defensive lapses against the Patriots hurry-up were far more embarrassing than Schaub grabbing his ears the last half of the season. I can't wait for the draft and the next season to begin. Go Texans!
And you're missing my point about "winning the 3 games", It's not that Super Bowl champions have to win 3 games, it's the fact that THIS team can only make it to the super bowl if every aspect of the game is clicking on ALL cylinders. As opposed to other teams that have something they are elite at, that they can fall back on. The problem is that most of us are afraid that the final 6 games of the season were closer to what the team is than the 1st 11.
Out of the teams you mentioned with that one elite unit, exactly 1 has won a Super Bowl since 2006 (actually 2 when you consider New Orleans). Minnesota barely made the playoffs this year and got whooped by the Bears in the Wild Card game. Baltimore ended up being well rounded. The Giants were good on both sides for both of their titles. Pittsburgh was well rounded. Even Indy's defense ended up being very good once Bob Sanders was healthy. I am nowhere near concerned that the slump the offense went in to the last 6 games is anything other than a slump and can easily be corrected.
I wasn't using those teams show what a super bowl winning team looks like, I used those teams to show what elite in 2012 looked like. But since you want proof here it is: Last 5 Super Bowl Winning Teams (Prior to last year): NYG - Elite Pass rush Pittsburgh elite pass and run defense N.O. - elite passing game and high T/O margin Green Bay - Elite Passing game NYG - elite pass rush Baltimore - Similar to what the Texans would need, everybody be on their "A" game and got a few lucky bounces. As currently constructed Houston does not have 1 single unit on their team that you know for a fact is going to show up and give you a chance to win. (Hopefully Ed Reed can be this for the secondary). We've got a few players that will ball out every week ie., Cushing, AJ, JJ Swatt, etc...but not one complete unit. Then to top it off we haven't had the one thing that the last 10 super bowl champs have had: Elite Quarterback play so I stand by my argument that the Texan cannot win a Super Bowl without either everybody playing the best game of their career, or by improving some of the units on the team.
Without Cushing, they finished #7. You don't think that with him then would have been in the top 5...or even top 3...which would be considered elite?
And Joseph was rarely 100% last year. And we added Ed Reed. And Kareem, Reed and Whitney have more experience under their belts and should be better. Sure, we lost Barwin but he wasn't that good last year IMO. We've focused on improving the defense and it shows. I hope we go offense in this draft.
I dont know, after all the defense of the championship teams left, they have been awful, and that bottom 10 defense for like 4 or 5 years, cost them them at least one superbowl, the haynesworth experiment failed, the ochocinco experiment failed, they keep drafting CBs, but they are average or below average.
Patriots show there is luck involved. They are a top 5 (maybe top 3) team every year, but when is the last time they won a Super Bowl?
How does a team that, in a year most of us considered "off" (the running game never got going; the right-side of the line took too long to gel; Schaub played poorly down the stretch; Cushing missed 2/3 of the season; JJo was never 100% healthy), rank 7th overall in offense and defense and yet *not* have an elite unit? Again, they ranked 9 and 10 spots higher than the Ravens last year on offense and defense. *Every* team needs to improve. The Patriots have been placing band-aids on a pretty terrible defense for years. The Broncos can't find a running back to save their lives. Etc., etc. And while I certainly understand the Schaub concerns... look: since 2009, his QBR is 94.3. He's completed 65% of his passes, thrown just 45 INTs and posted a very good YPA of 7.8. I know better than to wade into an "elite" discussion - but, assuming the he doesn't curl into the fetal position - if a team can't win a Super Bowl with *that* QB... then the problem isn't with the QB.
We didn't/don't have an elite unit. If you think they do, please tell me which UNIT you are referring to and will show up and control the game regardless of opponent. Not our passing game; Not our running game; Our secondary got routinely torched towards during the latter half, our kickoffs never reach the end zone, our returns were consistently among the worst in the NFL. Your "stats" show how well we did over the course of the entire year, but any real Texans fan could tell that the team in the beginning of the season was not the same team we had at the end. Over the last 7 games of last season, the Texans defense gave up on average to the opposing QB: 286/game, 2.3 TD's/game, and 27pts/game, Meanwhile our "Elite QB" was passing for 285/game, 1.3 TDs/game, and 24pts/game And also if you read my post, I said that we would need a year just like Baltimore had in order to win a super bowl, we need some luck, and for everyone to play their A+++ game. I never said we needed an Elite quarterback, (Baltimore has proven this twice), but what I am saying is that we need "Elite QB play" we need Schaub to play out of his mind for 3 games in the post-season, and not throw the ball away when he could run for 10 yds, or go in the fetal position if someone sneezes too close to him, or make wildly inaccurate throws because he thought the pass rush was getting too close. When it comes to Matt Schaub the "Elite" ship has definitely sailed. And if you have to include the statement "assuming he doesn't curl into a fetal position" then that kinda says it all doesn't it??? But I digress, I personally do think that we can win a Super Bowl with him.....we just need a lot of other things to fall into place before we can do it....
The offense. The defense. Ah... I had no idea only "real" Texan fans knew anything. How do you become a "real" Texan fan, BTW? Do you have to register, or something? Do they send you a laminated card? May I see your papers?..... The team crashed and burned down the stretch. Prior to, they were 18-4 in games Schaub started, and 22-8 overall, including a playoff win with a third-string rookie QB and an 11-1 record to start the season. Maybe how they ended up is where they currently are; but it seems you're putting *way* too much emphasis on six games at the expense of 30 others. I don't know why you keep pinning this on the Texans as if it's unique to them. *Every* team has a tough road to the playoffs and had better be playing their A+++ game. Sure, 8-8 teams like the '11 Broncos or inexperienced, in-over-their-heads teams like Indianpolis last year sneak in. But by and large, as I posted earlier, you have to beat elite teams to win a Super Bowl. I can't think of a single SB champion that wasn't peaking and backed into the Lombardi. Obviously, if he plays like he did the final six weeks, the team has no chance. But he doesn't have to play "out of his mind for 3 games," either. He needs to play like he did over his final four games of 2011 and the first 12 of 2012. They were 15-1 over that stretch. If the defense falls apart, if the running game is stuffed - sure, Schaub might have to pull a Montana. But that's true of *any* QB who's supporting cast abandons him. Again, this is not unique to the Texans... as someone else pointed out: for proof, look at the Patriots. Luck often has as much to do with a championship run as the QB playing out of mind.
Yeah, I'm with Hey Now! about how the season is BS... just make it to the playoffs unscathed and healthy, and execute in those games well to get past "elite" teams that otherwise would have done badly during the regular season.
You don't think that had anything to do with the fact that we were basically running backups and street FA's out there at LB?
1. The offense and defense got destroyed in the latter half of the season. 2. I'm not saying that you aren't a real Texans fan (or that you are for that matter) but what I AM saying is that anyone who actually watched the games instead of just going to NFL.com and looking at the stats would notice that the Texans were a different team down the stretch. 3. It's not the "30 others", it's the fact that this isn't anything new. The stretch you're referencing to the Texans were still struggling with their true identity. We want to run the ball, but we've proven that we can't run the ball on everybody. We want to get after the QB with a great pass rush, but we've proven that sometimes against even sub-par QB's we cant generate any pressure. 4. I'm pinning this on the Texans because this is a Texans forum. Everyone does have a tough road, no doubt, but they also have pieces to their team that can "pick up the slack". But if the Texans can't run the ball, they all of a sudden can't pass it either, because it seems as though our Passing game is almost all play-action. 5. His last 4 of 2011 were against Baltimore, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Cleveland....yet he averaged 215 yds/game and 1 TD. The 1st 12 of 2012 he averaged 254 yds/game, 1.75 TD's, and 1 INT/game, but in this past playoffs He played roughly the same by averaging 303/game, 1 TD, and 1 INT. but we didn't even make it to the AFC Championship....in order for us to win, Schaub needs to play better than the stretch you're referring to, he needs to play like he did in the Denver game, make the tough throws, and stand in the pocket and be willing to take some hellacious hits. 6. I can't believe you actually used the 2 names in the same sentence. Schaub has not shown that he can "pull a Montana" when it counts. Not talking mid-season against the #2 overall draft pick Jags, but in the post-season against the real teams.
Not really....I understand the loss of Cush was large, but even if healthy he wouldn't have been the one out there covering WR's.....But just a question (not being a jerk, but just wondering) who played against Baltimore that didn't play against Green Bay, Jacksonville, and Detroit?
Right - after they destroyed 11 teams over a 12-week stretch. Again, I 100% understand the angst; I just can't figure out why those six games render the other 12 irrelevant? No offense - but a dead person would have noticed it. So please stop acting like you’ve uncovered a lost artifact that proves dinosaurs never existed. Additionally, stop acting like you're in some way a superior fan. No one is denying their season crashed and burned the final six weeks; we're merely arguing that it - and not the 30 games prior - could very well be the anomaly. The stretch in which they won 15 of 16 with Schaub? Really? *That's* the stretch where you think they were struggling with their identity? Again, it speaks volumes that you continue to believe, unequivocally, that those final 6 games were SOP and that the previous 30 were some weird fluke... Are you *that* oblivious to how remarkably convenient that is? That's fine; just please stop pretending it's exclusive to them, and that for all these other teams, they merely have to show up with their one elite unit (wait, what?) and waltz into the Super Bowl. The Patriots have the greatest QB on this generation - and haven't won a SB since 2005 (IIRC). Yes, and they won those games by an average score of 31-15, scoring 30+ in 9 of those 15 wins. (Keep in mind: they played four without AJ. And that number would have been greater had the defense not imploded against Jacksonville and Detroit. Otherwise, the D only gave up more than 14 points in one of those 15 games. IOW, they were elite units systematically throttling their opponents each and every week.) Congratulations - you've now reduced your sample size down to a whopping two games - one of which they freaking won. I don't have any issue with someone fearing the final six games were more than a fluke; but to continually explain away the 30 that preceded them just seems like a monumental disconnect from reality.
I think you may be missing my overall point, which is that yes I do fear that the latter half of the season may be where we are. I also respectfully disagree with your premise that Matt Schaub needs to play good for us to win, I think he needs to play out of his mind. But also that unless He, Foster, and the Defense play lights out we can't win a Super Bowl.
This is sort of off topic (as it doesn't really fit into the poll options presented), but my current philosophy for this team is to focus as much as feasible/possible (through the draft and FA) on DEFENSE. We are getting Cushing back this season (hopefully he is not a shell of his previous self). We have Watt, Reed, JJo, Manning, KJackson (never thought I would say that a little over a year ago) and some other decent pieces. I feel like we are one or two good-great defensive players away from having a truly elite defense. History has shown that offenses with real limitations (and I think that in the playoffs Schaub's limitations get magnified) can still win it all with truly lock down defense. I think it is more reasonable to think we can get the defense up that notch or two it needs than to think we can somehow easily find a QB that is better than Schaub (those that think otherwise don't remember torture that we endured during the Carr era). Last season's QB crop has spoiled people, I think. They feel like getting a franchise guy like that should be easily available every year. It rarely happens. I'm fine with the steady/safe approach, but I think when grading out players in the draft or FA, all other things being equal, go defense defense defense.
