[Philly Inquirer] 76ers have to knock over Rockets with young talent (UPDATE: 1/13)

People fixate far too much on a players ability to hit the trey being the key to creating space. It is only one way. The defense can't leave guys that are money from midrange, or that are money to slash to the basket if you give them a chance consistently, especially in Adelman's offense. Since Alston came up in the conversation, the guy was/is a terrible midrange shooter at 38% for his career and wildly inconsistent. And mediocre at slashing to the basket for the layup and the flush. That's why he's not playing for Adelman and the Rockets. While Lowry isn't your 3 point threat, he's very good at midrange and amazingly good at slashing to the basket for the score. That creates space. Iggy is that on steroids. Scola is money in the post and from midrange. Ditto Landry, although better at the basket if passed the ball where he likes it, not nearly as good as Scola at creating shots in the post, IMO, and while good at midrange, he's not at Scola's level, yet.

There's a lot more to creating space than being able to hit a 3. Being able to hit the trey is a huge skill, but it ain't everything.

 

Huh? Ariza was the Lakers Shane Battier last year, and hit big shots for them along the way. Granted, the Lakers are and were immensely talented.. but for the MLE, how can you complain? Ariza is seven years younger than Shane, on a smaller contract than Shane (at least until Shane's expires) and has shown to be a great defensive player with a supporting cast (just as Shane has). If you applied the same outlook to Battier this year, you're probably wondering why he plays at all -- but again, he gets the benefit of the doubt because you've seen him on a talented team. Yet Trevor's contributions get discounted because he was also on a talented team?

No, you don't need the most talent in the league - you just need legitimate offensive players he can play off of. That way Ariza is shooting spot up threes instead of trying to jab step to create space to jack one. That way people don't crowd the paint when he drives because of Yao instead of having him drive into traffic. Legitimate offensive weapons will open up the offense for other guys.

I don't think Trevor will ever be as good of a spot up shooter as Shane was/is, but I think he will be more effective offensively than Shane ever was. To be honest, I just kinda throw this season out the window -- to me, this is a development season.

Ariza is only 24 and should still have a lot of room to get better. Shane should have already peaked at the age of 31. When there are two comparable players, I'd always rather have the one whose longer (Ariza), younger (Ariza), or taller (tie). I'm going with Ariza over Shane.

 

One aspect of this deal that I haven't heard brought up yet (might have been on Clutchfans but I'm not digging through 45+ pages to find out) is the potential for roster flexibility this deal would give the Rockets after next year.

I checked hoopshype to get the contract info for all players involved:

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/philadelphia.htm
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/houston.htm

There is a very enticing possibility that could become a reality if this deal is made.
Barring any other major additions/subtractions between now and then, this is what the Rockets payroll after next year could look like:

Current Core Player's Existing Deals Past 2010/11 ($ 2011/12 Salary)
Iguodola - $13.5M
Ariza - $6.8M
Brooks - $3M

Current Core Player's Reasonable Extensions Past 2010/11 ($ Projected 2011/12 Salary)
Battier - $8M
Landry - $7M
Scola - $6M
Lowry - $4M
Budinger - $3M

Potential Expiring Contracts or Team Options After 2010/11 ($ Expiring 2010/11 Salary)
Yao - $17.7M
Dalembert - $12.2M
Hayes - $2.3M
Anderson - $2.7M
Dorsey - $1M
Taylor - $0.9M

If the Rockets keep the 8 players in the first 2 categories (Total Value: $51.3M)...
And they let the other 6 players from the last category expire (Total Value: $36.8M)...
And assuming the cap stays right around the $75M - $80M level...
The Rockets would have about $28M in cap space to rebuild the team without Tmac or Yao after next year.

This is the real question the Rockets and every fan should really be asking themselves:
Should the Rockets (by that I mean Les) be willing to make a huge financial commitment to Yao beyond his current deal?
For financial reasons, I think Yao will stay a Rocket for the rest of his career.
For basketball reasons, I think giving Yao a mega-extension just before he turns 32 could haunt this franchise for years down the road.
We know what often happens when an aging big man gets that one last big deal after he turns 30 (Webber, Shaq, Brand) and how such a mistake can bog down a franchise for years (ask Kings, Heat, Sixers fans).

Instead, we could use this 76ers deal as an opportunity to replace both aging stars with younger cornerstones.
Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul (trade for $$$ reasons), and Al Horford could be available after 2010.
Derrick Rose, Anthony Randolph, Eric Gordon, Kevin Love, Brook Lopez, and Russell Westbrook could be available after 2011.

Melo, Durant and Paul are no-brainers as all 3 are already top-10 players in the NBA.
I would take all 3 over anyone that has been discussed for this year except LBJ and DWade, and certainly over Yao.
I'm not sure any of those other guys can step up and be "the man" on an NBA champion, but I know they will play more over the next 5 years than Yao will.
And I'm fairly confident none of those guys have peaked, whereas Yao's best days are probably already behind him.
He will become more and more injury-prone as he gets older, and he hasn't exactly been Cal Ripken Jr up to this point, so I feel building an entire team around him beyond next season would be a huge mistake.

Everyone is all gung-ho for this year's crop of FAs, which kind of makes me wonder what exactly McGrady's expiring cap space could realistically become this offseason.
With most of the NBA planning for the past 3+ years to rebuild their team this offseason, maybe the smart play is to wait until the next year, after the rest have already blown their load, and be one of the few teams with $$$ to make a major move with much less competition.

LBJ and DWade are not going to sign with Houston.
Bosh and Amare might, but what are we really getting there, and how much better is that than the Scola/Landry combo we already have?
Bosh is the favorite so far, citing a desire to return to Texas as #1 reason he would come here, but I really don't see any difference between him and Jermaine O'neal about 6 years ago when he signed his megadeal with Indiana.
Bosh is a great player, no doubt, but O'neal, even before the injury, never lifted Indiana above the 2nd round of the playoffs, even with RonRon playing at a near-MVP level too.
We probably won't get him for just McGrady either, meaning the young core of this team must be torn apart to make a deal with Toronto.
And we will be competing with about half the league to sign him, once the LeBron and DWade dominoes fall into place, so there is no guarantee we will get him without a trade.
Plus, with Landry and Scola, we would have to make other moves to balance the roster if we brought in Bosh, whereas bringing in a wing player would fill a huge void.

Which brings me to Iggy.
I do not think he is (or ever will be) elite, and I would group him just below the Monta Ellis/Joe Johnson/DeMarcus Granger level as a premium go-to scorer.
He's more on par with guys like OJ Mayo, Rudy Gay, Maggette and Richard Jefferson...good scorers who put up numbers on bad teams, but on good teams would be a solid #2 or a great #3 scorer.
He is not, however, selfish or a 'me' guy who checks his stat sheet after every game and forces bad shots like some of the guys I compared him to.
He is very unselfish, a great defender for a scorer, runs the floor very well, and is a capable shooter and finisher.
In short, I think he would blend in very well with the current team, give them the go-to scorer on the perimeter they need to take pressure of Brooks to score points, be able to keep up in the full-court game Adelman has embraced, and not disrupt the chemistry this team has going.

The real hidden nugget of this potential deal is Dalembert.
I have already mentioned his off-the-court potential for this team, but he's not a stiff.
On the court, although lazy and offensively-challenged, he is the ideal shot-blocking, rebounding true C this team desparately needs.
He would be a perfect complement to Yao as a backup, and, just as importantly, he is a capable fill-in starter with size when Yao inevitably misses games due to injury.
Everyone now knows that the Rockets have to limit Yao's minutes (preferably less than 30 MPG) in the regular season to have him healthy and rested for the playoffs.
And we know that they have to have a legit backup plan when (not if) he misses long stretches of games.
Dalembert accomplishes both of those objectives.
Plus, if needed, he could be resigned (under Bird rules) as Yao's replacement once another major FA was brought in if the Rockets decided to let Yao walk.

So what do you think?
Should the Rockets extend Yao?
Would Les ever let him leave?
Is Bosh just a very good player, or a legit Hall-of-Famer who can carry a team to a championship?
Should we wait to make a move on a top-10 player in a year or 2, while still remaining competitive next year?

 

If I had the power to give out rep, you'd get some. Great post.

 

No way Rockets resign Yao to a max contract.

Yaos perfomance and reliability is not near what other Max contract players are worth such as Bosh/Lebron/Wade.

If Yao ends up getting paid the same amount as any of the above listed players, then Morey should be fired on the spot.

 

Sorry - just a couple of things!

(1) The salary cap is currently $57.7million (that's down about a million from the previous season, and indications are that it will go down again - it's based on league revenues, google it if you want more info) - it looks like it will probably be around $55million next season, but lets assume it is $57.7million in 2010/11.

Going on your numbers, we would have $6.4million to sign a minimum of 4 players (conceivably we could spend it all on one guy and then use min salary spots to fill up the roster) - that's not going to bring much fun....

(2) on your numbers:
the Brooks $3m is a qualifying offer - he does not have to take it, in fact the only way he would is if he thinks nobody would offer anything better (in which case we might not offer it?) - but by submitting it, it simply gives us the right to match any offer made to him - which (provided his current form continues through next year) would be significantly higher than $3mill...

You're extending Battier @ $8million per season if he sticks around for that season, it would be for half that money (particularly if, in your scenario, we already have Ariza and Iguodala).

Budinger will NOT be paid $3million - we have an option for about $8-900k


(sorry there's more - i got no time to type it right now!)

 

I agree totally, that is what i said. the current rotation needs spacing even with Landry on the floor. You need a big man who can provide that the Okur's, Murphy's, Bargnani's, Gallinari's to compensate for Iggy's on court production.

 

This deserves its own thread.

 

No disrespect but Ariza isn't on Shane's level as a role player. He can't shoot as well and doesn't defend as well and worst of all, he doesn't realize just how limited he is as a player. He's basically the worst kind of role player. You can't be a "glue guy" when you don't have any glue. Trevor has no glue.

 

LOL. He may not be a glue guy, but he's got a ring.

 

Luke Walton has a ring. LUKE. WALTON!

 

Mario Elie, good player, three (?) rings. Robert Horry, what, seven rings? Nice player. Both deserve to be in the HOF - for Hakeem and Tim and David and Shaq and Kobe's induction ceremonies.

Look at all the greats who never saw even one ring. Rings are overrated for the role guys.

 

Luke Walton didn't hit major shots, defend and steal passes in clutch games.

Don't kid yourself, Ariza was a major piece on that team.

 

And sasha....That just hurts typing....

 

if you asked shane to play the role that ariza is being asked to play this year, he would be doing even worse than trevor.

ariza is being asked to do a LOT more than shane. and honestly, if shane had to work as hard offensively as trevor is working (results aside) for 40 minutes a night, his defense would fall off too.

if you don't lose sight of the fact that trevor is being asked to play a role he has never played, his awkwardness is much more understandable.

again, it's not that he doesn't realize his limitations, it's that he's being asked to expand his game.

 

Just make the trade already. Iggy, Dalembert & Speights/Williams/Young for McGrady/Dorsey/Cook. The waiting is agony.

 

I'd even throw in Lowry. I think what we will face as we move forward is it will be the business that steps in front of winning. They'll build around Yao regardless untill he retires is what will happen. I have nothing against Yao don't take that the wrong way. I just see him getting older and the team keep getting younger around him is what will happen.

 

It was a development year and the rotation being used is to develop that specific player.

 

Would love to see the rockets pull off something with Speights coming to the rockets.

 

Good post.