Pattonly Absurd? Can Justin Patton be a core member of the rebuilding Rockets?

This is honestly just not true because:

- A player's prime is after 25,
- the team will not be contending with an 18 year old leading it, so the actual window you're talking about is far later, if it happens the way you describe,
- we are going to have cap space and sign FA's that will dramatically morph your timeline so we can make decisions where a huge amount of estimation is employed.

When you tank, you develop assets. In 3 years, it is just as likely as your scenario that we will have a big FA + a big draft pick + Wood. We have to function for all the possibilities in between. I think you have to be more strategic with assets.

 

He is not better than wood and probably will never be. If he can play with Wood as everyone is suggesting he should do then yes. He can play as a backup to Wood with a splash of with him in a staggering situation.

Rockets would never do this though. They have shown heavy implications that they have 0 interest in playing Wood at the 4 which is what I would think would need to happen in this situation unless Patton is more mobile than I think he is.

Long story short, Patton will only ever be a backup to wood most likely, all though I would be highly interested in seeing if they could play together. We are basically in tank mode so I think we should use this year for experimentation.

 

totally agree on the timeline taking longer on rookies!! I was being optimistic on if we get a top rookie they usually make an impact sooner.

I also agree that we have no idea what happens in the next 3 years regarding trades, FAs, draft etc... so maybe the rebuild is shorter than anticipated, however I'm almost sure no superstar FA wants to sign here right now. Big time FAs look to join a winning organization, not drag it out of the gutter. Miami and Toronto were on Giannis' radar because they won in the playoffs. Maybe we can overpay a couple of borderline Allstars by giving them the max to drag us to the playoffs, but we're not getting the next Giannis, or AD, or harden when they are on the move until we can prove they they would be the final piece instead of the first piece.

there is a case to be made for going after collins and ball either via trade or free agency, just to get some young starters to develop and hope they become all stars, but the timing is off IMO because they would ruin our draft position in 2022 and 2023 without the benefit of making us a playoff team. I think we have to hit big on those two drafts because after that its all going to the thunder.

 

yeah true, possibly.

so the chances that top 4 picks produce a player good enough to earn just 1 all star appearance is about 50/50, worse as you move down the draft obviously. and based on the lotto odds, there's about a 50/50 chance of keeping a top 4 pick even if you're a bottom 4 team. so that gives us a 25% chance every year of drafting a 1 time all star. if we tank through 2023 AND happen to land in the top 4 each time (which isn't likely) we'd still probably only end up with 1 all star our of the 3 picks. Maybe 2, but chances are not all 4 picks end up in the top 4, for example we might not even have a pick this year.

again chances are we have 1 potential future all star by 2023. that's the realistic timeline. then we have to wait for that guy to develop into an all star before we start winning. Maybe wood, Tate, Patton, mason, kpj develop in 3 years they'll be mid-late 20's. by the time our draft picks start to peak these guys will be late 20's-early 30s. probably enough talent and depth by 2025 to make the playoffs. plus the nets picks will likely start to be good by then. and since our best players will be on rookie deals we should have cap space to land a big FA like the Celtics with tatum/brown were able to add Kyrie and kemba (not that either paid off).

I think based on the odds we'd want to give it 5 years. that's why I was advocating for using our cap space to take on bad contracts and charge draft picks. for example Blake has one more year left on his deal. its not long term but its a max contract for a guy who can't play at all anymore. the pistons can't find a trade partner and will have to pay him all of that money in a buyout to go away. it will be the largest buyout in NBA history by far. or we can absorb his contract through next season and ask them to lower the protection on their pick from top 16 to top 3 for the next 2 years. we'd get a top 5 pick for taking him on. think of the 50/50 odds of adding an all star with each top 5 pick, adding another one by 2023 would really shorten up our timeline.

 

If Olajuwon and Sampson can play together.
Wood can play beside another big.

Rocket River

 

Some drafts are better than others and if they get a top 4 pick in this years draft they will be able to draft a star level player. IMHO

I'm also on board with taking on bad contracts for picks and young players. For instance I would take on Blake's contract if Doumbouya was included in the trade. Or if Detroit was to take off the protections on the pick they traded to Houston earlier.

 

yes those are the types of trades we need to think about. we shouldn't be trying to win for the next 3-4 years.its more important to get the best pick possible in 22 and 23. in the meantime our cap space should be used to take on bad contracts if they come with picks or young players. however, once we have our 22 and 23 draft picks on the team, then it will be important to develop a winning culture. first, so they adopt winning habits, and secondly so they want to stay here after their rookie contracts. we would need to be a playoff team before they hit FA, so then our cap space should be used to sign veteran mentors, young complementary players. but again, until then the motto is "our cap space can be yours, for the right price!"

 

His stroke looks good, has height, and he's blocking shots.

Needs to strengthen up to better rebound and defend heavier players, but he's a potential above average starting center.

 

Bigs take a while he was a first round pick and shoots the 3ball, fits in perfectly here, could be a time where he replaces PJ Tucker as the starting PF and plays with Wood.

That would be the hope.

DD

 

If you were in 1985...

 

TWIN TOWERS ACTIVATE !!!

BTW - it is better to have BIGS that can play small ball style, than smalls who do the same....ala Lebron, and Anthony Davis.

DD

 

Agreed.

If we had Clint and Wood
They would be like Hakeem and Ralph
They can guard all positions and could switch
Wood can shoot from all three levels

So I think people seem to be so adamant against two bigs playing at once
and I don't see why

Patton and Wood
Makes our defense better (with training and practice)
without hurting the offense too much

Patton can stretch the floor better than Tucker or Tate at the moment.

Rocket River

 

Based on all the reading, you can. There's just a 30 day waiting period before they can be. For Justin Patton, he signed Feb 19 and trade deadline is March 25.

 

Ingenious.

If you have Lebron and AD, it's better. If you have Hakeem, it's better.

Where are we getting one of those?

 

You are right, thanks for pointing out this information to me. I really thought you couldn't trade two-way players.

 

1985er too eh?

Playing Patton and Wood together makes us markedly worse on both ends of the floor. Full stop.

There are many, many problems you could isolate here, but I'll go with something simple. Spacing the floor. Spacing the floor is not just about shooting, it's about being able to get to your spot as fast as humanly possible. The massive difference in footspeed from Patton to the next guy in terms of getting out on a wing and stretching the defense to the corner as PJ does is MASSIVELY important. Just as Wood stretches the defense running the pipe, we need our forwards stretching the defense to the breaks and the corners. Every delayed second is a chance for the defense to recover, which will put us in our halfcourt offense, which is light years less efficient league-wide than transition offense.

TLDR: The collective foot speed of Patton and Wood would effectively grind the offense to a halt, as halfcourt offense would see a huge usage bump, which is bad.

Defensively, dear lord we have even more problems. Defending in space is the primary issue here, along with transition defense which is probably the most important aspect of defense in the NBA. You would have Wood/Patton running back, picking up guards in scrambles. SHREDDED.

You could honestly go on and on. Sure, If we had Lebron to manage tempo and hide our deficiencies, you might be able to start the game with twin towers. If we had Hakeem or Duncan, yeah we could probably make it work, but these are once in a lifetime guys. Aside from those special few, you are far better off taking advantage of the rulebook and the analytics. Post-ups are bad shots, you want to entice teams to post up as much as possible. Transition and spacing >>>... etc.

 

Every contender needs role players. Patton could develop into a useful role player.

When you start dumping potential role players before you see what they're worth you end up with the Robert Covington/Hassan Whiteside regrets of the world.