None of these projections account for the fact that Chandler Parsons will become significantly better under Rick Carlisle, especially on defense. I don't care what his PER was last year, he's young and raw, he will improve. Not worth $16mi but we absolutely did not get better by replacing him with Ariza. Much less Lin, Asik, Parsons, Casspi for Ariza and Gee.
I'll agree that we didn't get better from opting to go from Parsons to Ariza, but I can't agree that we got worse from that one move. We got worse because we haven't replaced Asik or Lin. I don't agree that Parsons will become significantly better under Carlisle. You're not going to get more effort out of Parsons. You can focus some of his energy on defense, but he's never going to be Ron Artest or Shane Battier on defense. He doesn't have the strength or the brains to be an elite defensive wing while remaining above-average offensively. If his ceiling is basically Ariza on defense, where is the improvement going to come on offense to make him a star? The dude is not a scorer, he makes his points breaking to the basket and making open three pointers. He can't create his own shot and he's not a strong enough shooter to run set plays for. He's a good passer, but he's no LeBron or Pippen. If Parsons is going to take a step up from being an above-average role player to a All Star, and he's not going to evolve into an elite defender, where is that production on offense going to come from? Who is he going to model his game after? McGrady? Grant Hill? I don't see any of that. Morey made the right call. The difference in Parsons and Ariza today is negligible, and Parsons upside wasn't worth the risk of locking your roster in for the next two or three years.
No but he can get just as hot. <iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/s_JpQneVP78" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> <iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/wwZdoevq3E4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
The right call would have been NOT to let Parsons become an UFA. It's funny how you guys are trying to knock Parsons down like he's garbage to cover up the fact that Morey dropped the moneyball...Lol. OKC fans talked about Harden the same way when he left. When Dragic left _ we said he wasn't worth that contract either but now we wish we had him. Interesting to see what the Rockets offense will look like. Things will have to change.
Better player doesn't always mean better fit. This team needs perimeter defending very badly. Parsons and Harden weren't a great fit as a starting 2/3 because neither player would make opposing wing players work very hard. Ariza can shoot the 3 and finish at the rim just as well and possibly better than Chandler could. His skill set just fits more of the Rockets needs right now and I think it's an upgrade from a team perspective.
So I suppose you work better just before review time... This is about the stupidest thinking there is, so he will shoot worse on purpose because he has a contract???
The right call is only clear in retrospect. Can you point to your post where you predicted a max offer coming his way? We had a better chance of having him longer term with the RFA approach. It backfired because Cuban was willing to go mediocre but good-looking for the end of Dirk's career. (Shrug). Chandler's not garbage, not at all, but Cuban is going to sell more CP25 nighties to female fans than he will WCF T-shirts for a few years. That's for sure. And maybe that's smart from the bottom line perspective. Carlisle will get them to the playoffs again, barely.
True statement But Morey was doing Parsons a good service and got burnt in the process. He shouldn't trust anyone
Cuban is sitting back laughing and thinking he got even with Morey. His feelings was really hurt when the Rockets won the Howards sweepstakes. I believe in a player getting his money but paying CP25 that much is crazy.
Moreover this paper provides the first statistical evidence of underperformance in a contract year. Underperformance was discovered in true shooting percentage, usage percentage and field goal attempts per 36 minutes. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1780&context=cmc_theses
I actually read through that published paper and it's sub-par at best. Author only uses 2012-2013 data, only uses PER as a statistic comparative basis, and in general makes quite a few of poor mathematical assumptions. On the topic of contract year performance, usually it's defined by things you can do with more effort. While shooting definitely is affected by a player's focus, motivation, and effort, I think it's probably the least affected out of all the things a player could outperform in a contract year. Ariza's shooting %s were nothing short of meteoric last year and I'm inclined to believe most of it will carry over.
It's simply a matter of sample size. My biggest worry re this year's contract year players is actually Lowry. He was on his best behavior, in his best shape. Will he sustain it going forward? Who knows. Hopefully. But obviously, if his sample size of great play was 4 years instead of 1 year, people would feel much safer. Similar with Ariza.
What were losing: Chandler's ball handling and playmaking. Having a second ball handler that can drive was important since Lin couldnt do it. A young player who might have panned out to become a 19-20 PPG player. What were gaining: Better defensive wing. We had plenty of offense but not enough defense. And Ariza will have no problem in our offense because he shot at a high clip on 3s last year and did not take alot of midrange shots. Cap flexibility. 15 M a year is pretty high for Parsons. Ariza is getting paid 8ish on a descending contract to give rockets more flexibility for 2016 summer when Dwight could opt out for a bigger contract.
