Nope. Can he guard on the perimeter like Mobley? Can he pass like Mobley? What has been more aggressive about his demeanor in college?
The concerns about his quickness are real though, at least when it comes to foot speed. A slow first step really limits what he can do on offense. The only time I can recall the high-risk "unathletic" prospects becoming the best players in their class was back in 2018 with Luka and Trae, though the former is much more athletic than most give him credit for, and the latter is so good at shooting that it simply doesn't matter that he's never dunked the ball in an NBA game.
Yes, both only struggle when a tank of a man manages to get into their chests, they both take contact through their hips well. Yes, their AST/min numbers are nearly identical. I agree with you on his offensive abilities. Best I've heard it described as was "More useful than good".
He got knocked down 6 times in the Alabama game, and how many high level guards has he been asked to guard on the perimeter this year. How many times has he been asked to guard a guard on the perimeter this year. I am not asking these questions to **** on Holmgren, I just don't think they have been answered and could still be considered weaknesses in the NBA. IMO he is looking like a high level 3D guy who has some driving ability, but that is only because he is not asked to do much more, not doing him any favors that his conference is pretty weak as well.
Time will tell. I still think his testing numbers will surprise people, you don’t really see him get stopped on dribble drives.
I have not watched him play enough to know those answers, so I will take your word for it, I think Mobley looks way more fluid moving side to side and to tell the truth I have not seen much of Holmgren being a playmaker, so I can't comment on his overall skill in that level. I am just glad to care about a couple of prospects so much that I want to pick their games apart.
This is fair I think. The only thing I would say is just because he’s not asked to do it doesn’t mean he’s not capable. He’s shown the ability in high school and international play.
Yes. Yes. And go watch his games. Dude hunts on defense. And hunts more on offense. He probably just jumped to #1 on almost every draft board. You can't teach 7 feet. And you can't teach motor. This kid has both. Mobley is fundamentally sound and makes good decisions. Chet is that except a much better ball handler, shot blocker, shooter....almost everything.
He rotates on guards often, and the fact that most teams don't even bother to isolate him 1-on-1 says much. The Alabama game was an outlier, but he played like dogshit and got ragdolled. Banchero sent him flying once, but other than that Chet played a decent game against Duke, you can't say the same against Bama. I blame Gonzaga for his obvious underutilization on offense (reminds me of KAT and Booker doing nothing on offense while upperclassmen got all the shots) and that piss-easy schedule. The WCC isn't awful, but I see 3 tourney teams tops coming out of there. He played decently against BYU, and hasn't played St. Mary's yet. As for other high level competition, he played really well against UCLA, OK against Duke, and awful against Bama, had another stinker against Texas Tech, and one of his best games against BYU. Can't wait for March Madness to start and see all these dudes in high-pressure situations.
No he has not jumped to # 1 on every draft board I have been paying a lot of attention the last week and Smith is starting to be the guy, if anything Holmgrem is dropping and Ivey is rising. Chet is not a much better ball handler and shot blocker, Mobley is averaging almost 2 blocks a game in the NBA, and he plays on the perimeter much more than Holmgren. I would not be surprised if Holmgren takes the biggest fall come draft time, just because it will be hardest to project his game to the next level.
I really need to start watching some of his games, the only 2 I watched in full are the UCLA game and the Alabama game. It will be fun to actually watch games that have high level guys again. Yeah, the WCC is not awful but not many high level athletes among those teams.
More footage. Seems like Gonzaga is letting him do a bit more with the ball? But this was also a blowout against a not great team. Getting backed down by a 6'8 dude (still blocked the shot) was a little concerning, but expected. More or less what we already know, he's not going to stonewall people in the post. But given his wingspan, fight, and IQ, I think you can live with those possessions occasionally. Need to watch more to get a better sense of his recovery and reaction speed, but I'm slotting him at PF and letting him hunt on defense. His shooting efficiency is also pretty nuts given the amount of jumpers he takes. I think the concerns about the ceiling of his half court offense are warranted, but I think he ends up being a positive overall. He does enough of the little things to keep things flowing while providing 3pt and lob spacing.
My biggest take away is that he does not get bumped off easily ang he can absorb some contact by bigger players. Which means he has a good core and good balance, I would just really like to see him be the focal point and see how he performs, but I feel the same about everybody not named Banchero.
Jabari has been rising but if Chet continues this level of play there's nothing that Banchero or Jabari can do to go above him. Neither is the defensive prospect he is. Chet is the unicorn style of player people want to believe Mobley is. Evan is a really really good defensive player. But offensively he's middling at best. When you compare his offsensive tape to Chet's it's not even a fair comparison. I think Mobley has slightly better defensive fundamentals but Chet is the better rim protector. That being said, if the Rockets drafted #1 I'd go with Chet. But if you told me today that the Rockets would be guaranteed one of either Chet, Jabari or Paolo I would take that in a heartbeat.
Dude lateley most people have considered Smith and Banchero the best prospects and Holmgren has been slipping. Sorry to break that news to you, but it's true, just listened to Chad Ford the other day and Ivey is getting consideration over Holmgren. Nobody really cares about a rim protector at the top of the draft, they want to know if you can be the hub of an offense on a contender. Mobley's offense is not middling and yes its a fair comparison, Mobley has shown much more off the dribble in the pros than Holmgren has in college.
Ehh.... Chet is about the same. There have been a lot of experts having Holmgren going #1. I have seen Smith recently go as low as #3.... the one player that seems to have stayed consistent has been Banchero.... I personally question taking Banchero at #1 because he is limited defensively. Don't be shocked if Sharpe goes #1 if he comes out..... he has a lot of the traits of a super star..... he has a really good frame, good muscle placement, he is long, he is explosive, has an exceptional vertical, can see the floor well and has what is perceived as a good shooting form..... he is raw, and he would have to show it in private workouts, but he is the fastest riser since T-Mac. He isn't as good as T-Mac from a natural talent perspective (only a handful of guys ever have been) but Sharpe has all the measurables that a star player that can run your offense can have, as he is projected to be a primary ball handler. As for Ivey, he is absolutely in the same discussion as Smith, Holmgren, Banchero.... he has the upside of a star.
Yeah, he is an incredibly efficient player. He will likely never be a high volume player that takes 20+ shots a game, but he is going to be very efficient on offense and a monster on defense. That type of player is a superstar IMO. He may not ever lead his team in field goal attempts, but someone that anchors a defense, that plays very hard and scores 15-20 points a game and stretches the defense is extremely valuable.... it's not LeBron James or James Harden, but it is a top 10-15 player in the league at peak value.
Experts is a relative term, but it seems Holmgren is losing steam and Smith is the belle of the ball at the moment. I personally question taking Holmgren because he is limited offensively. I go with the high upside guy offensively over defense every time, and Holmgren is a great shot blocker, but will he be a great perimeter defender as well? Will he still be a great shot blocker when people are going through him and not trying to go around him?
No, he doesn't guard the perimeter as well as Mobley but he still guards the perimeter better than 90% of other centers in the NBA. He will be able to switch and guard guys out there. Yeah he can pass like Mobley. That is a strength both have. Holmgren is a dog, he is about as aggressive a player as there is. Having said that, demeanor can be over rated. Mobley is a dog too, he is just quieter. Holmgren is a vastly better perimeter player than Mobley.... they aren't carbon copies of one another but comparable overall. I would have loved to have both on the Rockets but that wont happen.
I agree with you that Smith is definitely the guy overall that is cresting right now, and he may end up #1 but I have surprisingly seen some push back for Holmgren. I personally am not sure who I would take, but I think I would take Holmgren because his floor is really high.... he is going to be an elite shot blocker and he really is good at help defense. Will be he a great perimeter defender? He is never going to be as good as Mobley at defending the perimeter, Mobley moves like a point guard. I wouldn't be shocked if the Cavs isolate Mobley at some point on a point guard. Holmgren is going to be able to effectively switch and keep perimeter players honest. Chet is actually longer than Mobley and he is better at taking angles. I could see them being the two best defenders in the league potentially. As for offense, Holmgren is fast once he gets a stride going and he slips really well so he will get buckets and he is a good perimeter shooter, he is hard to block and an under rated jumper. So he will get buckets.... he isn't going to be a Scottie Pippen or Lebron James where he sets up the offense but I am not sure Mobley will either.......... actually if either of them reach that point, they will be in the discussion for the best player in the world.
