Paolo Banchero vs Chet Holmgren

So Chet is the only 7 footer that 20-30 lbs of muscle is going to hurt? What a stupid thing to say

 

Chet is not a unicorn bc he lacks the athleticism
I think his career will play out more like the original misnombered 'Unicorn' - Kristaps

That's the difference between him and a real franchise unicorn like Mobley
Almost identical skill set and body types, but massive gap in athleticism

 

Huh?! Where are you getting this no athleticism? He’s not far off of the athlete Mobley is and is way more athletic than most 7 footers. You can’t find a single scouting report that says he’s a poor athlete. Better athlete than Banchero

 

It would be stupid if I actually said that.

So know Chet is like any other 7 footer?

 

Mobley vs Chet on raw athleticism isn't even a comparison

Chet's exceptionally skilled and coordinated on the perimeter with the ball for his size
but he is not:
- vertically explosive nor a pogo-type quick jumper
- quick-twitch in change of direction
- laterally light and balanced DEF on perimeter

Mobely is elite in all 3 of those for a 7ftr

Neither is blazing fast or powerful and both rail thin, but Mobley still has a clear advantage over Chet in natural physical gifts that can't really be taught or learned

I stand by my comp of Kristaps Porzingis
Fantastic skills and enough athleticism to form a rare overall package at 7ft, but neither can/will ever become what Mobley might

 

Lol what a joke
Some people will tell themselves anything

 

I think Chet is a unicorn and Porzingis was too until injuries. Chet can cover a lot of ground, but he's usually in the right spot because he's reading the game.

 

Chet is quicker than KP with much better length, KP had much more offensive polish but his defensive game was never really there.

The two are entirely different prospects, and really don't share much in common outside of being 7 feet tall + and white.

Not too unlike comparing AD to KAT.

If anything, Chet is an experiment in making Andrei Kirilenko seven feet tall with about the same wingspan and seeing what happens.

 

Paolo will be a more impactful force in the NBA than either Mobley or Chet or Victor or any other big man you can name because he will run the offense for a team similar to Lebron or Giannis --- Bully Ball.

 

Vecenie’s 2022 NBA Draft Big Board 2.0

In general, the sentiment surrounding this class remains the same. Unlike last year, when the consensus from teams was that at least three players — Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green and Evan Mobley — would have been reasonable No. 1 picks in most classes, this season, Smith, Holmgren and Banchero are all seen as the typical quality of player found in the No. 3 to No. 5 range of a typical NBA Draft class. That’s not to say they aren’t exciting prospects; they are, and could all make All-Star Games if things continue to go right with their development. Rather, it’s just that this class is still seen as one lacking a true franchise-altering talent. On top of that, the middle to latter portion of the lottery is seen as a group that is wide open right now, as fewer players than normal have stepped up to become what evaluators would qualify as consistent contributors. A lot of players in this class have the upside to be a lottery pick; precious few players have truly shown it game after game over the course of the season.

This is why the addition of Kentucky freshman wing Shaedon Sharpe to the class has proven to be such a tantalizing idea for NBA teams. Kyle Tucker and I wrote about the Sharpe situation last week following a report that Sharpe can apply for the 2022 NBA Draft. For now, I will not be ranking Sharpe on this board, as discussed in that piece. I want more clarity on his eligibility for the 2022 draft, especially in light of the fact that Sharpe and his family have been very clear that the plan is for him to return to Kentucky next season. If more information comes to light there, I’ll adjust.

1. Jabari Smith, Auburn
2. Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga
3. Paolo Banchero, Duke
4. Jaden Ivey, Purdue
5. Johnny Davis, Wisconsin
6. A.J. Griffin, Duke
7. Bennedict Mathurin, Arizona
8. Keegan Murray, Iowa
9. Jalen Duren, Memphis
10. TyTy Washington, Kentucky
11. Ochai Agbaji, Kansas
12. Kendall Brown, Baylor
13. Patrick Baldwin, Milwaukee
14. Dyson Daniels, G League Elite
15. Blake Wesley, Notre Dame
16. Mark Williams, Duke
17. MarJon Beauchamp, G League Ignite
18. Nikola Jovic, Mega
19. Tari Eason, LSU
20. Harrison Ingram, Stanford
21. Kennedy Chandler, Tennessee
22. Max Christie, Michigan State
23. Jaden Hardy, G League Ignite
24. Jean Montero, Overtime Elite
25. Trevor Keels, Duke
26. Caleb Houstan, Michigan
27. Bryce McGowens, Nebraska
28. Wendell Moore, Duke
29. Jeremy Sochan, Baylor
30. Iverson Molinar, Mississippi State
31-100. …

Notes and observations

• As mentioned previously, many consider the top tier in this draft to be Jabari Smith Jr., Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero. Smith slots in at No. 1 because I think if the entirety of his game comes together over the next five years, his ceiling is a bit higher than that of the other two. He’s coming from such a special place as a shooter, particularly in pull-up situations, at 6-foot-10. It is uncommon to find guys who are this smooth on one- and- two-dribble pull-up situations. He is fluid enough to grab and go on the break after corralling rebounds and create offense out in transition. He’s elite out of spot-up situations, using his high release point to shoot over the top of defenders. Defensively, he’s a bit more mobile than Holmgren and Banchero and should have no issues playing the four due to his wherewithal in help situations as well as his lateral agility.

• Johnny Davis skies up the board to No. 5 in large part due to that aforementioned consistency that the rest of the class has been lacking. He’s the clear riser in this class and the favorite for the National Player of the Year award. Wisconsin counts on him to be its central figure every single night, and he delivers. Davis is a monster shot creator from all three levels, making 36.5 percent of his 3s. He’s scored 55 points on pull-up jumpers from the midrange and made 55.4 percent at the basket. There’s just so much skill here. On top of that, he defends well on the perimeter against guards and constantly is willing to fight through screens.

• The defense could be a real differentiator for him for some teams when compared to the guard ahead of him on this board, Jaden Ivey. Ivey has not been all that great this year on defense, although it’s worth noting that, contextually, he’s given a lot to do on that end when placed in ball-screen scenarios. Because Purdue’s bigs, Trevion Williams and Zach Edey, are so immobile, Purdue’s guards are asked to do so much fighting through screens to get contests. It can result, at times, in Purdue’s perimeter defense as a whole looking a bit rough. Personally, I think Ivey’s upside as an athletic lead guard is just so high now that he’s improved a bit as a live-dribble passer that I’m willing to deal with him learning on the job defensively in the NBA. That’s why I rank him a spot higher. But it’ll be a part of the conversation as Purdue’s season continues.

• The most difficult scout near the top of the draft class this year is, undeniably, Jalen Duren. He’s playing for a Memphis team that could be charitably described as an unmitigated disaster, and Duren is likely the player who is held back most by that mess. Offensively, Duren is best utilized right now as a rim-running five man. Two things stop that from being a possibility. First, Memphis’ offensive spacing is poor because the Tigers don’t really have shooters. Their team 3-point percentage of 35.5 percent isn’t that bad, but they don’t take a ton of them, and teams don’t really respect the guys who are supposed to be spacing the floor, such as Earl Timberlake, Deandre Williams and Josh Minott. Tyler Harris is the only player shooting over 34 percent from 3 who has played in at least 25 percent of the team’s minutes this season. And that’s not exactly a small group of players, either, as Memphis has played 10 guys at least 25 percent of its minutes on the court. On top of that, Memphis doesn’t really have a reliable point guard situation. The Emoni Bates experiment at this point has been a failure, and then neither Alex Lomax nor Harris can handle the duties at the level required. All of this results in a team that is a walking turnover and gives the ball to the opposition on over 23 percent of its offensive possessions, a number that is in the bottom 10 nationally.

That means Duren, who should be able to score six points per game just by rolling hard to the rim in the American Athletic Conference, has made only 10 shots out of ball screens in 15 games this season. That’s outside of the top 250 players nationally, despite Duren being 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan and having all sorts of bounce and good hands. Duren has shown a lot of upside as a shot blocker, has finished just about everything at the rim when he’s gotten his chances and has thrown in some interesting passes throughout the year, but this season is almost a throwaway for him because the situation doesn’t even really allow him to show what he’s capable of. I’m still a believer and have him ranked in the top 10, but don’t be surprised if he’s a pretty polarizing prospect for teams. While the flashes of his skill set are there, the consistent positive tape isn’t.

 

• This is probably the highest you’ll see Kansas wing Ochai Agbaji on a public draft board, which is a pretty real reversal from where I was a season ago. I did not love Agbaji during his first three years at Kansas because I didn’t think he showcased high-level feel for the game regularly. He couldn’t really handle the ball well enough, and the gears in his head seemed to be turning a bit too much. I believe I had him ranked somewhere in the 60s or 70s by the time he pulled out of the draft. This year, though, he’s been one of the five best players in the country and would unquestionably be on my first-team All-American ballot right now. Why? Because his skill-development has really come along. He’s much more comfortable putting the ball on the deck. He plays much more often at his own pace. He looks so much more comfortable out there and has morphed into one of the five best scorers in the country because of it.

Throw those in with the skills we already know he has — high-level shooting acumen and positive defensive contribution — and it’s really hard for me to understand what public evaluators are missing. He’s a young senior who doesn’t turn 22 until after this collegiate season ends, and he’s 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan, great physical strength and a frame that looks like that of an NBA player. He hits 45 percent from 3 on seven 3-point attempts per game while averaging over 21 points and five rebounds per game. On top of that, he’s a plus on-ball defender who isn’t quite elite but does a good job on his man and has real switchable attributes one through four at the NBA level. Those guys stick in the NBA for a long, long time. And those guys tend to be lottery picks. Most NBA teams I’ve talked to have Agbaji somewhere in the 10 to 18 range right now because he’s one of the few players in a draft full of question marks who ticks a lot of boxes that suggest he’ll be able to play a role early on in his career.

• Right now, I would say I feel truly confident in 17 players as first-round picks (the top 17 on this board). The rest are real, significant questions. Some are more likely than others to go in the first round, but I don’t feel like it’s anywhere near a certainty. Again, that’s not to say the bottom 83 guys are bad players or anything; there are just many more wide-variance players once you get past that group than you typically see at this point in the season. More players will establish themselves up the board as the season progresses. But evaluators truly have their work cut out for them.

• There also is another really interesting aspect of this draft cycle with those players outside the top 17. It’s not a certainty that many of the players currently ranked in the 20 to 50 range on my board end up declaring for the draft. Many are extremely raw at this point, plus very young. There is a real case that the best thing many players could do in terms of both basketball and emotional development is return to college. Additionally, will some of them decide to take the extra year of development and try to climb the draft board again next year? This season has some real success stories from players doing that, including Ivey and Bennedict Mathurin. Will someone like Max Christie, who is by all accounts very happy at Michigan State and hasn’t had a one-and-done type season despite NBA scouts’ interest in him, decide to come out to be a pick somewhere between No. 21 and No. 40?

The same can be said about Baylor forward Jeremy Sochan, Duke guard Trevor Keels, Alabama guard JD Davison, Memphis forward Josh Minott and UCLA forward Peyton Watson. That’s before even getting to Florida State forward John Butler, a skilled 7-foot forward whom scouts have legitimate interest in but who is in no way, shape or form physically ready to play pro basketball at 190 pounds, which is somehow 25 pounds less than what Evan Mobley entered the NBA at last year. Ranking the players like this right now is kind of a fool’s errand.

• And yet, a few other upperclassmen have really stood out and put themselves on the map. Mississippi State guard Iverson Molinar had his fans last year due to his mix of creative handle and tough shot-making. He has all sorts of burst mixed with change of pace and is a walking bucket at the college level due to his polish. Last season, he was one of only six high-major players to average at least 16 points while shooting 47 percent from the field and 40 percent from 3 while taking at least 100 3-point attempts — and was the only one to return to college basketball. This year, the 3-point shooting is down, but that’s likely a matter of small samples, as he’s been a consistent 37 to 40 percent guy through his first two years and is hitting over 88 percent from the foul line so far in his junior year. But while the shooting efficiency hasn’t quite been as consistent, he’s more than made up for it by improving as a distributor who can play as a credible point guard in college. He’s making better reads and looks much more comfortable getting his teammates involved while also getting his own offense. I’ve moved him into my top 30. That’s probably higher than most people have him, but most NBA evaluators I’ve talked to see him as at least a mid-second-round type — with some agreeing with me that he could sneak into that first-round mix.

• Coming in right below Molinar at No. 31 is Auburn center Walker Kessler, who in my opinion has been the most impactful player on the best team in college basketball so far. Even more than Smith, I think Kessler is the key to Auburn’s success over the past month during its climb up the rankings to No. 1. With all due respect to Kentucky big man Oscar Tshiebwe — and plenty of respect should be afforded him — no player has been better in SEC play when accounting for both offense and defense than Kessler. Since Dec. 14, Kessler has averaged about 14 points, eight rebounds and five blocks per game while shooting 73 percent from the field. That’s just a ridiculous amount of production. After a slow start getting acclimated to Auburn over the first month, Kessler has been entirely dominant.

He’s just absolutely enormous inside at 7-foot-1 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan. The Tigers block more shots than any team in college basketball and have allowed teams to shoot just 43.6 percent from inside the arc. Auburn’s defense is 9.1 points per 100 possessions better when Kessler is on the court versus when he’s off the court. In SEC play, the Tigers allow teams to take five percent fewer of their shot attempts at the basket when Kessler is on the court, and teams within the league are shooting just 47 percent at the rim in the half court. He and Arizona center Christian Koloko are the two best defensive players in college basketball so far this season. Any list of the best defenders in the country without them is not a list worth looking at.

• One final guy I want to note: Michigan State wing Gabe Brown is one of the more interesting upperclass prospects this year, in that everything about his game profiles as something NBA teams would be interested in. Over four years with the Spartans, he has hit about 38 percent of his 321 3-point attempts. On top of that, he’s 6-foot-8 with high-level wing athleticism and on-ball defensive ability. He’s having his best season thus far as he’s stepped into the biggest role of his career, leading the top-10 Spartans in scoring at nearly 14 points per game. Every time you watch him, there definitely seems to be something missing, in that he makes the loud weakside rotations for blocks but gets beat a bit more away from the ball than you’d typically like to see. And frankly, the next difficult passing read he makes might be his first during his four years in East Lansing. But you know what: 6-foot-8 with legit on-ball wing athleticism while shooting 38 percent from 3 plays at the next level. He has some growing to do, but his skill set is an easy sell for NBA teams. I have him as a borderline top-50 guy right now, and it wouldn’t stun me if we start to hear his name more if Michigan State continues its success.

 

The kid can be special. Has so much untapped offensive ability (or just hasn’t been able to show) and might be best defensive prospect in college.

 

Jabari and Chet would allow Sengun to do his thing on both ends. Prayers up for a top pick.

 

Starting to think he might have highest floor and ceiling. At minimum he’s an elite 3&D guy. High side is a top 5-10 guy in the league

 

Chet has eh foot speed but amazingly quick hips, its the only thing allowing him to stay in front of guards. Whenever anyone marvels at how he always has the correct positioning on defense, its because he can change directions incredibly well. If he didn't have that hip speed, he wouldn't be able to absorb contact with his lower body at all, as the surest way to get bumped off and end up on the floor while playing defense is to have your hips pointing parallel to the player you're guarding.
Anyone who says he can't change direction has no clue what they are talking about. He almost never gets beat by guards on the perimiter or driving but don't expect him to beat anyone shorter than 6'9"-6'10" off the dribble.

As for concerns about size and quickness with added weight, muscle gained from weight-lifting is fast twitch muscle. Nobody has ever gotten slower through muscle mass alone. If anything, they get quicker.
Its stamina that can decrease, as fast-twitch strength and quickness muscle are somewhat mutually exclusive with slow-twitch endurance muscle. Its why sprinters and marathon runners look entirely different despite doing somewhat similar activities at first glance.

 

He’s also a long strider that looks slower than he probably is. You never see him get chased down on the break.
He will probably test well with sprint times. It just looks slower because of how long he is.