PA/IN/NC Predictions

rimrocker · Apr 21, 2008

We don't know what Obama's internals are saying.

And he can't say "We're going to lose." Really, the answer he gave is the only one available... and it will certainly be closer than the 15-20 point lead HRC started with.

Major · Apr 21, 2008

rimrocker said:

And he can't say "We're going to lose." Really, the answer he gave is the only one available... and it will certainly be closer than the 15-20 point lead HRC started with.
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I disagree - there were any number of things he could have said besides "it's going to be closer than people expect". It now means, at a minimum, he has to beat the polls, which all show a 6-9 pt win for the most part. That's a silly bar to set, regardless of what his internals show.

El_Conquistador · Apr 21, 2008

Why can't Obama win a big state? What's going on?

jgreen91 · Apr 21, 2008

Hillary by 8 in Penn
Barack by 19 in NC
And Barack by 1

Cesar^Geronimo · Apr 21, 2008

Trader_Jorge said:

PA will be tight, but Hillary takes it. Hillary will have new momentum afterwards. North Carolina won't be treated as signficant because obama does not have to reach beyond his African American voting base to take it. In other words, he doesn't have to demonstrate coalition building skills to win North Carolina.
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If the race is tight it will be viewed as a loss for Hillary --- no matter who actually wins

El_Conquistador · Apr 21, 2008

Obama is outspending Hillary by 4-1 in PA, yet still trails in the voting? What is going on? Why can't the guy CLOSE?

rimrocker · Apr 21, 2008

Data point for NC:

Unaffiliated voters favor Democratic primary
Submitted by ryanteaguebeckwith on April 21, 2008 - 12:43pm.
http://projects.newsobserver.com/under_the_dome/unaffiliated_voters_favor_democratic_primary

Unaffiliated early voters are asking for Democratic ballots by a 5-to-1 ratio over Republican ballots.

According to results posted Sunday by the State Board of Elections, voters requesting absentee ballots by mail, members of the U.S. military voting elsewhere, overseas voters and one-stop voters are far more interested in the Democratic primary.

So far, 36,011 registered Democrats have voted early, 11,741 registered Republicans and 9,794 unaffiliated voters.

To put those numbers in context: Nearly 63 percent of the ballots requested so far were by Democrats, although they make up only about 45 percent of the electorate.

Among the unaffiliated voters, 7,054 asked for Democratic ballots, 1,433 asked for Republican ballots and 1,297 asked for unaffiliated ballots.

The unaffiliated ballot only has judgeships and local nonpartisan races.
Click to expand...

mc mark · Apr 21, 2008

jgreen91 said:

Hillary by 8 in Penn
Barack by 19 in NC
And Barack by 1
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That's more in line with my thinking.

It's unfortunate to see Hillary pull out the fear card again with the Bin Laden ad.

rimrocker · Apr 22, 2008

Some PA info...

Seems the more Dems in a district, the greater number of delegates...

Delegate results could be delayed in Pa.
Counties split into multiple districts, could defer results by a day or more
The Associated Press
updated 1:09 p.m. PT, Mon., April. 21, 2008

WASHINGTON - The wait is almost over for Pennsylvania's Democratic presidential primary Tuesday, but voters may have to wait a little longer to find out who won the most delegates to the party's national convention.

As in other Democratic contests, Pennsylvania awards delegates based on the statewide vote and the vote in individual congressional districts.

Unlike most states, Pennsylvania has a large number of counties split into multiple congressional districts. That could delay results by a day or more as election officials work to assign votes to the appropriate districts.

Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton are vying for 158 delegates.

Fifty-five will be awarded based on the statewide vote, which should be available Tuesday night. Another 103 delegates will be awarded based on the vote in individual congressional districts. All delegates will be awarded proportionally, as they are in every Democratic contest.

The distribution of delegates among congressional districts raises the possibility that one candidate could win the statewide vote and the other could win more delegates, but the statewide vote would have to be very close.

The delegates are weighted heavily toward urban and suburban areas because Pennsylvania, like other states, apportions congressional district delegates based on Democratic voting strength in the most recent presidential and gubernatorial elections.

Under the formula, the 2nd Congressional District, which includes part of Philadelphia, has nine delegates at stake, more than any other district. The 9th Congressional District in the south central part of the state has the fewest, with three delegates at stake.

Other urban and suburban districts near Philadelphia and Pittsburgh have seven delegates at stake, while more rural districts have four or five delegates.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24243176/
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rimrocker · Apr 22, 2008

News sites are running the obligatory "High Turnout" story.

Heavy Turnout in Pa.

By Julie Bosman
Pennsylvania Update
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/22/heavy-turnout-in-pa/

Pennsylvania is on its way to the record turnout that election officials have been predicting for weeks, according to poll workers from across the state.

Election officials were reporting extremely heavy voter activity in many of the state’s 67 counties throughout the morning, starting with long lines reported even before the polls opened at 7 a.m.

“Let’s just say it’s very busy,” said Joseph Passarella, the director of voter services for Montgomery County, sounding a little harried. “Our phones have been ringing since 6:15 this morning and have been ringing nonstop. We’ve never had a primary election this busy.”

Among the phone calls were people who wanted to vote in the primary but had not switched their registration to Democratic in time, Mr. Passarella said. Those people were told that they were not allowed to vote in the Democratic primary.

In Beaver County, in the western portion of the state, turnout appeared even higher than the county officials had anticipated.

“We’re just overwhelmed,” said Geri Shuits, a polling clerk in Beaver County. “I’ve gotten so many phone calls, I just can’t keep up.”

At one polling station, the number of voters they’ve had was already as high as by the end of the night last year, she added, referring to the November 2007 municipal election.

In Philadelphia, turnout is reportedly “very heavy,” said Abe Amoros, the executive director of the state Democratic Party. In the counties surrounding Philadelphia, including Bucks, Delaware, Montgomery and Chester, most polling stations have reported long lines.

The Democratic primary election in 2004 saw a 26 percent turnout, but this year promises to be much higher, Mr. Amoros said.

“We’re predicting at least double the turnout of 2004,” he said. “This is the first time we’ve been major players in the presidential primary since 1976.”

There is no statewide standard for voting method in Pennsylvania. Some counties, like Montgomery, use direct-recording electronic machines. Other counties use punch cards, and still others use paper ballots.

In Lancaster County, election officials had prepared emergency ballots in case of a shortage. “We have somebody here who’s ready to deliver them,” said Mary Stehman, the chief registar in Lancaster County.

Stacy Sterner, the chief clerk in Lehigh County, compared the turnout so far to that of a general election. On election day in November of 2004, Pennsylvania saw a 73 percent turnout.

In the township of Lower Macungie, she said, a polling station saw more than 100 people in line waiting to vote by 7 a.m.

“It’s a crazy day,” Ms. Sterner said. “If I didn’t know better, I would think it was November.”
Click to expand...

A_3PO · Apr 22, 2008

What isn't known yet is how the heavy registration of new voters and the high turnout in the Dem primaries will affect November voting.

A_3PO · Apr 22, 2008

Drudge's exit poll source has it 52/48 Clinton, which means she will win by close to 10 points.

rimrocker · Apr 22, 2008

Another set...

BARACK OBAMA, HILLARY CLINTON

On the Verge of a Stunner in Pennsylvania?

Hold on to your hats. I've gotten the usual word of the exit poll results from one of my usual reliable sources. He notes that Obama traditionally over-performs in the earliest exit polls, and that he expects the numbers to change as the night wears on - perhaps a reversal.

But right now, the exits are saying Obama 52 percent, Clinton 47 percent.

Take these results with the usual grains of salt and skepticism. I'm told that Obama is carrying blue collar workers two to one, and he's winning Philadelphia in the neighborhood of three to one.

As usual, if you're a Pennsylvanian and haven't voted yet, don't let these or any other numbers discourage you.

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjhlYzZiYjRhNDI0YTMwYzAxMTQ0NWNhNTQyODc4ZGE=
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Major · Apr 22, 2008

Keep in mind Obama was tied or winning the exit polls in TX/OH as well. I have no idea why he overperforms in exit polls in close states, but I think it's a combo of (1) his voters are more likely to talk to young exit pollsters and (2) his voters are more excited in general and are the types that line up at 7am to cast their vote for Obama. Remember, these exit polls don't include evening results, where she may have a demographic advantage. All theories, but any close state, he seems to overpoll in the exits.

rimrocker · Apr 22, 2008

Good quote from Obama:

If Senator Clinton gets over 50 percent she’s won the state, and I don’t try and pretend that I enjoy getting only 45 percent and that’s a moral victory. You’ve lost the state.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0408/Winning_and_losing_Pennsylvania.html

bigtexxx · Apr 22, 2008

the exit poll I saw had 92% of blacks voting for Obama

Invisible Fan · Apr 22, 2008

What did the exit poll say about the white vote Obama got, texx?

mtbrays · Apr 22, 2008

Trader_Jorge said:

Why can't Obama win a big state? What's going on?
Click to expand...

This is a point that I would like explained to me; Hillary uses this as a major point of contention since she has won states like California and New York. However, both of these states are historically Democratic and I would be shocked if states like that went for McCain in the general. Hillary may win big states in the primary, but I don't think that would prevent Obama from winning them in a general against McCain.

Jugdish · Apr 22, 2008

bigtexxx said:

the exit poll I saw had 92% of blacks voting for Obama
Click to expand...

Yeah, but 3/5 * 92 = 55.2.

mc mark · Apr 22, 2008

dumbartonbass said:

This is a point that I would like explained to me; Hillary uses this as a major point of contention since she has won states like California and New York. However, both of these states are historically Democratic and I would be shocked if states like that went for McCain in the general. Hillary may win big states in the primary, but I don't think that would prevent Obama from winning them in a general against McCain.
Click to expand...

Your thinking is correct. Not only that, Obama expands the map to traditionally red states. Hillary will not do that.

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PA/IN/NC Predictions

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