Ask any pitcher whether he would prefer an above average defense behind him or an above average offensive line-up? The majority would say an above average defense!
I know! Uh, they won 96 games last year, 103 in 2002 and 102 in 2001. So, to answer your question, quite recently. I don't. I'm just saying the number one issue is OPS. Until the Astros get on base, they will continue to lose, regardless of their defense.
Madmax, I don't agree. The players are to blame; but, I think Hunsicker makes too many mistakes! This team has too many deficiencies. It's not just the offense, it's not just the defense, it's not just the coaches (Jimy, Harry..), it's not just relievers, it's not just starters... I truly believe the you point the finger at those that make the decisions. I blame the snake oil salesman and Gerry!
I don't know why you wouldn't--a team with no money to waste becomes very successful after refocusing their scouting toward OPS. Several years in a row, despite giving up huge free agents they couldn't afford. Baseball playoffs are unpredictable. A lucky break here, an error here, an uncharacteristically bad outing by a pitcher--these can alter the course of a short series. Over the length of a season, though, the statistics don't lie. The amount of luck involved in winning a championship relative to the clear science of winning a lot of regular season games is disturbing. I don't know why you wouldn't: geeks with little money = many wins scouts with lots of money = sometimes wins, sometimes losses
you're being ridiculous...there wasn't a baseball guy around who was predicting the team the astros were trotting out in april wasn't capable of competing with the big boys. no one was predicting a last place finish..or next to last place finish...for this team. don't tell me you were, either. again...this group of players has already shown what they're capable of during the first month of the season. they haven't lived up to expectations....but that isn't the GM's fault.
I doubt that, but even if it were true, so what? Good offense is more strongly correlated to winning than good defense.
there's an interesting little study..what's the sample size on that one? come on...one team with a deep farm system...that has traditionally had a deep farm system with heralded scouts...has been able to replace talent out with young talent in. that's been done before. it's happening in atlanta this season. let's see what happens when other teams start dropping their studs and taking the same approach on a regular basis. my guess is you'll never see that happen. baseball is way too complex to judge everything by one statistic. to judge a player's worth by one statistic. to judge the makeup of a team by one statistic. that's silly. brought to you by the same folks who say having a good closer is overrated....and then trade for dotel midseason.
Exactly. They had the same defense (save Beltran), but they were tearing up the NL with OFFENSE. The offense has disappeared, hence so have the wins.
Are you kidding me? You are giving Gerry way too much credit. Roger and Andy wanted to come home. Gerry is not a genius for signing the two. The guy didn't address any of the issues that I pointed out in earlier posts. They showed what they were caable of during the first month? Well, explain to me what happened with the rest of the season. It is really a moot point. I am tired of being negative. I think the solution is pretty simple. Get rid of the old, bring in the new! Keep the starters and Lidge! Make as many changes as you can to the rest of the team!
Except Jimy Williams' inexplicable love of the Adam Everett sac bunt: Waste Not, Want Not: We'll use an example from the Astros game against St. Louis on June 4, but any Houston fan could name a half-dozen others. Craig Biggio led off the game with a double to left field, bringing up shortstop Adam Everett. Nice start, right? On the way to a big inning, right? Wrong, if you're Jimy Williams, who's never met a pointless sacrifice bunt that didn't seem like a good strategic decision, especially with Everett at the plate. So far in 2004, Everett has 19 sacrifice bunts in 61 games, by far the most in the majors. So, as ever, Williams asked Everett to lay down a bunt. He couldn't get the bunt down, and the Astros eventually stranded Biggio at second base. In James Click's series on the sacrifice bunt, we learned that the threshold for a bunt in a runner on second, no out situation is .249/.305/.363--that is, if the batter's numbers are below that threshold, a bunt makes sense. Otherwise, the batter should hit away. Everett is currently at .282/.316/.370 this year, which means that a bunt with a runner on second and no one out is a bad play with Everett at the plate (although, not as bad a play as you might think). And keep in mind, that situation is the best situation for a sacrifice bunt when you're trying to maximize the number of runs you score; any other situation early in a game is an even worse time to lay one down. This is old news to most of you out there, but apparently Williams hasn't gotten the memo on this. In a lineup that features four players with a VORP in double digits, Williams' penchant for throwing away outs and runs early in games is especially baffling, and if Houston comes up short in the NL Central, he'll deserve a great deal of the blame. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2978
I don't give Gerry much credit for Pettite and Clemens..except for the fact he got the deal done. How about McLane?? Do you give him any credit for this?? Explain to you what happened the rest of the season?? sure...they haven't performed to their capabilities. That happens all the time in pro sports...and when it does, you point fingers at the ones who are underperforming. I freaking love Lance Berkman...but batting .200 in the 3-hole for June without a homer ain't gonna cut it. His HR today was the first in 80-something AB's. They have zero production out of the heart of the order. That's their problem. That was not an issue in April when Hidalgo was doing his best Clemente impersonation and the rest of the guys, save Berkman's very early season slump, were going like gangbusters. again...there was no reason for anyone to expect this team wouldn't perform when they were signed and put out on the field to play for the houston astros this season. did you think they'd be a contender??? or did you think they'd be in last place?? i read a lot of reports from all sorts of baseball folks...no one...not one...said, "yeah...this team has no firepower...won't produce any runs from the heart of their order, they'll probably finish in the bottom half of the NL Central." Hunsicker had good reason to believe the team they were trotting out would be sufficient.
rudager -- another thing i disagree with the stat geeks on...i remember the cardinals of the 80's killing teams by getting on base with bunts. by moving runners over. by the way...this logic isn't limited to jimy. if you were looking for changes from garner, you probably weren't too happy in the first inning today when everett bunted AFTER BIGGIO HAD ALREADY GROUNDED OUT TO OPEN THE INNING!
The farm system is deep because they draft the right guys (college players who get walks). The Jays have begun to do it, as have the Red Sox (who hired one of Beane's geeks). I don't judge players or teams by one statistic. I just said this stat, which our average team is average in, is the single greatest predictor of team success. In other words, stop talking about defense and focus on offense.
You have to separate sac bunts and bunts for hits. Giving up an out to move a runner is usually a bad idea because outs are so valuble, but if you can get on with a bunt...well, hell, who's going to complain?
theo isn't holding to these formulas at all. the red sox were a team of sluggers last year and they're a team of sluggers this year, too. they live and die by the long ball. i haven't followed the jays much. but i don't think there's much progress to point to there. again...we'll see. i think it's far less likely that baseball will get turned on its head by overdependnce on one stat than you do.
moving a runner over is baseball. putting a runner in a better position to score is baseball. even if it means giving up an out in the first inning. this is another place where i part ways with the moneyball folks.
Where's the discrepancy? (j/k, We sure could use the guy...anyone else now feel we took the Lidge-Dotel-Wagner troika for granted?)
HECK NO! Mr. Snake Oil Salesman had to do something after Wagner called him out! Pettitte fell in his lap. He saw how many season tickets he sold after that signing. So he went out and signed Clemens. The guys is motivated by one thing... IN GOD WE TRUST! He doesn't care if we win. Les does whatever he has to do to win. I really DO NOT like Drayton!
