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Our defense has dropped significantly

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Yellow, Jan 6, 2014.

  1. kuku

    kuku Contributing Member

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    Rockets defense is fundamentally flawed. You can't just single out any problem or player individually. Bev will be nothing but a band-aide fix for our defensive woes that is deeply rooted in our defensive schemes. It all started in December.

    Before Bev was injured, here are his stats in Dec.:
    <PRE>Date Opp MP PTS
    2013-12-02 UTA L (-6) 38:26 8
    2013-12-04 PHO L (-9) 41:54 12
    2013-12-06 GSW W (+22) 32:40 6
    2013-12-08 ORL W (+10) 38:52 9
    2013-12-12 POR L (-7) 39:23 9
    2013-12-13 GSW W (+4) 30:17 16
    2013-12-15 SAC L (-15) 31:04 6
    2013-12-18 CHI W (+15) 33:38 15
    2013-12-20 IND L (-33) 30:01 8
    2013-12-21 DET W (+17) 14:35 10</PRE>
    His +/- came to -1 for the Month of Dec. Our win/loss was 5-5.

    Bev, nor Lin, is not a defensive game changer. They are only served as small pawns by people who make moves on a much larger defensive chess board. So far, they are badly losing this chess match!
     
    #101 kuku, Jan 6, 2014
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2014
  2. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    Our defense will perk up. We just need to play the Spurs more often.
     
  3. roflmcwaffles

    roflmcwaffles Member

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    IMO the thing being forgotten my most "X only fans" is that it's not so much whether Lin or Bev are better than each other, it's how much better they are than Brooks.

    Brooks is a solid 3rd string PG, but when he gets stuck playing 2nd string minutes, he gets absolutely HAMMERED on defense.

    Lin and Bev are a good combination, clearly neither is a superstar, but each have value, 1 on D and when on O, which helps McHale use whichever one would work in any given situation.

    Right now his options are Lin or Brooks, while Lin is DEFINITELY better than Brooks defensively (doesn't saw much), McHale is always at a defensive liability @ PG with these 2 as his only options.
     
  4. SF3isBack!!

    SF3isBack!! Member

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    This seems like the truth. I don't know if it is true or not but that's what it looks like. The just seem like "ehh whatever" like their bored or something.
     
  5. Albinoswordfish

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    I don't think the PG position is the reason why Houston struggles defensively at times. Houston never looked good defensively with any PG starting. Both Lin and Beverly have shown to be capable defenders.

    You have to start looking at the core Harden/Howard/Parsons for the defensive struggles. Parson's defense has regressed quite a bit from last season probably due to the high number of minutes. Harden has been even worst than last season defensively, I didn't know that was possible. Howard is good as he is defensively is having a down year in terms of blocking shots. In fact this season is his lowest bpg since 05-06.

    But I think the biggest reason for the Rockets defensive struggles is there horrible Pick and Roll defense. The only players that seem to hedge at all are Asik and Jones. The rest of the players just allow the guards to get right into the lane unimpeded which always causes havoc to the defense.

    In my opinion the Rockets would be better defensively if Asik was playing instead of Howard.
     
  6. quatin

    quatin Member

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    I agree. I've been saying for a while that defense is predominantly a team effort. Superior athleticism is just the cream on top. An offense will always break down a defense eventually, it's how your team reacts to recover that makes the biggest difference. Simplistic comments like " don't get caught on screens" or " don't get beat" just show ignorance to how the game is played . Why not make it " keep your guy 30 feet from the basket?"

    That being said. Asik is the best PnR setter and the best PnR defender on the team. Howard is noticeably worse defending in space and doesn't even leave the paint to guard his man, leaving 2 on 1 sets on the perimeter sometimes. Getting asik back would be huge for us on defense.

    Meanwhile, Jones recently has shown good decision making on the PnR defense as well. I think we have progressed in team defense since Beverly has been out and that's why the stats seem to indicate a wash defensively no matter who starts. There's no question Beverly is better at 1 on 1 defense. Where he fails is at PnR defense, but that's a team fault. When Beverley gets back, I would expect better overall defense with the improved team defense and his notable "peskiness".

     
  7. KlutchQT

    KlutchQT Contributing Member

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    Noting that Bev's absence has an impact is not blaming Lin. It is noting that Bev's absence has an impact. I don't think one person who has posted in here hasn't identified the lack of a competent back-up center as the primary issue.
     
  8. tonman

    tonman Member

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    1. You have to rebound to be able to go on fast breaks.

    2. Last 6 games defense - 102.5
    Previous 6 games defense - 104.5
    Previous 6 games defense - 99.0
    Previous 6 games defense - 95.7
    Previous 6 games defense - 108.3
    First 5 games defense - 103.8

    Season 102.5. Looks to me more like inconsistency than anything else.
     
  9. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    http://stats.nba.com/teamLineups.ht...eType=Advanced&PerMode=Totals&GroupQuantity=5

    Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard lineup allowed 100.2 points per 100 possessions in 245 minutes across 14 games.

    Lin-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard lineup allowed 109.0 points per 100 possessions in 167 minutes across 13 games.

    It would nice if they'd show what is the average offensive rating for the opposing lineups faced.
     
  10. tonman

    tonman Member

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    Howard doesn't come out far enough to help on the PNR. The Memphis game where DMo played well he really helped out the screened guard by showing the ball handler. Howard needs to stop thinking he's just a shot blocker on defense and start playing team defense.
     
  11. tonman

    tonman Member

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    and yet the Lin-Harden-Parsons-Casspi-Howard lineup allowed 91.3 points per 100 possessions in 84 minutes across 16 games.

    stat is bad because replacing one player does not give you an apples-apples comparison because the teams are different, the opposing players are different, and of course the minutes are different.
     
  12. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    And Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Casspi-Howard allow 78.5 points per 100 possession in 17 minutes across 8 games. You need to compare apples to apples.

    Obviously very small sample size (then again, 84 minutes is also a very small sample size), but your argument assumes that Casspi is a worse defender than T-Jones.

    Perhaps what this simply shows is that Casspi might be a more disciplined defender than Jones.
     
  13. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Stats are factual or non-factual. I assume those numbers are factual, since they're from NBA.com.

    Statistical inferences can be judged to be good or bad, but then I wasn't inferring anything in that post. Just posting the defensive ratings of our two most used lineups.
     
  14. tonman

    tonman Member

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    is the PG defensive liability the reason Houston is giving up all these points?

    Top 2 Opponent Scorers
    Knicks - Shumpert 26 (SG), Anthony 25 (SF)
    Kings - Gay 25 (SG), Cousins/Thomas 17 (C/PG)
    Thunder - Durant 33 (SF), Lamb 22 (Backup SG)
    Magic - Anderson 22 (PF), Davis 18 (C)
    Grizzlies - Randolph 23 (PF), Johnson 12 (Backup PF/C)
    Spurs - Ginobili 22 (Backup SG yeah 6th man), Leonard 13 (SF)
    Mavs - Nowitzki 31 (PF), Ellis 18 (SG)
    Pistons - Smith 19 (SF), Singler 12 (Backup SF)
    Pacers - George 24 (SF), Stephenson 16 (SG)
    Bulls - Butler 20 (SG), Deng 18 (SF)
    Kings - Gay 26 (SG), Cousins 21 (C) [Thomas had 19]
    Warriors - Lee 23 (PF), Barnes/Curry 20 (SF/PG)
    Blazers - Aldridge 31 (PF), Matthews 18 (SG)
    Magic - Davis 18 (PF), Afflalo 16 (SG)
    Warriors - Curry 22 (PG he was 5-14), Lee 14 (PF)

    We have a winner when a PG actually lead in scoring. Of course PG sometimes are not looking to score but to facilitate so this is not that good of evidence I am using but even if you look at scorer #2, PG only show up 3 times and two of those they were tied with another teammate for that second spot.

    So you can say the Houston PGs let the opposing PGs go hog wild distributing the ball to everyone for easy baskets (but Houston's OPP FG% is actually pretty good) but I think we have issues moreso than the PG position.
     
  15. tonman

    tonman Member

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    understood. this lineup is the third most used.
     
  16. tonman

    tonman Member

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    how do you compare apples to apples? you going to play against one team and have one lineup and then when you play against the same team only change out one player? my argument is that this stat along with +- is not a good stat.
     
  17. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    It's not meant to be a good or bad stat, it's just how you use it.

    +/- would be a bad stat to use in one game, but over the course of an entire season it would be more telling, though not definitive.

    The point is in this case, you are measuring apples to apples because you are swapping out only one player in the line-up, which allows you to contrast the effectiveness of a particular player on a particular line-up.

    Of course, it isn't a perfect comparison because you cannot control for the line-ups of other team, but that's a limitation that affects practically all other data analysis.
     
  18. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Your lineup, having Casspi in it, also probably faced a larger percentage of "reserve" lineups. The top two lineups are more comparable in that they have been primary lineups used against the other teams best players.

    That said, your point that its not purely apples to apples is of course correct. Then again, rarely is any statistical comparison between players or teams "apples to apples".

    On another note, NBA.com says that the team's defensive efficiency with Beverley on the floor this year is 99.7 (second to Asik) and last year it was 98.8. That's a stretch of 65 games facing a variety of teams where the average points allowed per possession with him on the floor was impressively low. Couple that with how energetically he plays on defense based on the "eye test" and also the way his teammates and coaches talk about his defensive impact, I think its a good bet to say that he's a significant plus defender on our team.
     
  19. tada

    tada Member

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    I blame team defense, therefore McHale. We can't guard PnR and poor box out.
     
  20. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    Really is quite simple. Brooks playing PG. Asik NOT playing center. Remove those factors, and watch us become a top 6~7ish defense.

    Stats are only bad for people who put no thoughts into them using them. If you think about it for one second, you'd realize that because Casspi's minutes correlate with the minutes of opposing benches, team defense should be better. And flamedts responded earlier to support this, as Casspi, Beverley, and the rest of our starting 5 played great defense too.

    It's ironic that durvasa tried his best to make an apples-to-apples(though not perfect) comparison by excluding as many external factors as possible. Yet you try to "disprove" him by making an obvious apples-to-oranges comparison by introducing more outside factors.
     

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