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Opinions : Should we trade for Alvin Williams?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by rsl5181, Dec 5, 2002.

  1. kidrock8

    kidrock8 Member

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    Williams doesn't really do much offensively but shoot (and miss) open jumpers. Not really a true PG, like someone mentioned earlier.
     
  2. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    I remember to that Steve Francis wanted to be PG not a SG.

    Im not sure about this but I thought I remember him saying that he wanted to have Majic Johnson type of game.
     
  3. MManal

    MManal Member

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    Nothing against Steve Francis and his belief that he can be a PG and doesnt want to play SG, but here is a little statistical analysis to consider. One of the major defining criteria for a PG is the Assist to Turnover ratio. A 3 to 1 ratio is considered good for a PG. Here is a comparison between Steve Francis, Gary Payton, Jason Kidd and Andre Miller in terms of assist to turnover for their first 4 seasons in the league.

    Francis
    Year 1 - 1.66
    Year 2 - 1.96
    Year 3 - 2.13
    Year 4 (through 17 games) - 1.50

    Payton
    Year 1 - 2.90
    Year 2 - 2.88
    Year 3 - 2.72
    Year 4 - 2.84

    Kidd
    Year 1 - 2.44
    Year 2 - 2.40
    Year 3 - 3.91
    Year 4 - 3.03

    Miller
    Year 1 - 2.87
    Year 2 - 2.48
    Year 3 - 3.61
    Year 4 (through 18 games) - 2.49

    Also, something to consider is Allen Iverson's assist to turnover ratio his first two seasons. 1.69 for Year 1, 2.03 Year 2. Larry Brown realized Iverson couldnt run the point after these two yrs and moved him to 2 guard his third season. His Ast to TO ratios were pretty comparable to those of Francis during his first two seasons as a PG. Just something to consider.
     
  4. D-Up

    D-Up Member

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    Golden State rook, Jiri Welsch.
     
  5. MacBeth

    MacBeth Member

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    I totally disagree with this assessment. You need to understand his role...he is not a dominate the ball type of point guard..They don't ask him to be a penetrate and dish guy all the time, that's not how their offense works, but he can and does do it when needed, especially at crunch time, and he does it without losing the ball. He is a guy who gets the offense started, but not a Jason Kidd type...However as earlier stated, his court awareness is attested to by his consistent and very good Assist/Turnover ratio...( He is currently 4th in the NBA at 4.08 assists for every turnover.)

    As to his being a SG in a PG's body...The above and the fact that his own coach calls him a coach on the floor refutes the 1st part of your statement, and the fact that, at 6-5, he is significantly taller than most point guards, and taller than every guard we have except Hawkins pretty much does the same to the 2nd.
     
  6. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Member

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    He averages fewer assists than Steve Francis, which -- accordingly to the folks on this board -- is too low to be a point guard. Alvin Williams may have a good A:TO ratio, but (statistically) it doesn't seem like he touches the ball very much.

    I think this obsession with trading for a point guard is ridiculous. Steve Francis is really a shooting guard? He has a lot of assists for a shooting guard. But fine, we run a 2 shooting guard, 2 power forward starting line-up. What's wrong with that? He might not be able to orchestrate the offense like Jason Kidd (few can), but that isn't the only way (or perhaps even the best way) to run an offense anyway. The traditional line-up might not be the most effective, so why force a team into some predetermined shape so you can look like your supposed to?

    By the bye, the reasons Francis cited for not wanting to sign in Vancouver was that he didn't want to be a SG and he didn't want to be so far away. I doubt those were sincere. He didn't want to go to Vancouver because the team was (and is) a dog. Of course, he didn't want to be a PG, but I doubt he would have fussed much about playing out of position if he was drafted by Seattle or Phoenix. And, he might be playing SG right now for the Rockets if he didn't have a good friend and great basketball player filling that position for the team right now. If Mobley suddenly died and Jason Kidd suddenly fell in our laps, I doubt he'd complain now about being the SG. But, given the make-up of the team, it is best he remain a PG. And why change it if it is good enough for 3rd in the Conference?
     
  7. MManal

    MManal Member

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    JV,

    I dont think the demand for Steve Francis is or should be to get 10 APG or anything of that sort. I personally could care less if our PG only averaged 5 APG. The key for me from the PG position in this offense is to get the others on the team involved in a consistent manner where they receive the ball in their strong positions. Mo Taylor talked about it in the Chronicle this morning how its important for him and Ming to receive the ball in a good position to score as opposed to being out of position. That kind of stuff has a lot to do with the orchestrating of the offense, and the PG making the right pass at the right time. This team may be 3rd in the West right now, but I can guarantee you that they wont remain there unless the offense improves. They are putting up incredible efforts in terms of defense and rebounding and am not sure if they can keep that up at this clip.

    I have no problem with Steve's assist total, its the assist to turnover ratio I have an issue with. For instance, Mike Bibby only averaged about 5 APG last yr, which was fine with me b/c Bibby performed all the above tasks w/o trying to go it alone and drive into a bunch of traffic. Bibby knew when to pass the ball and to who in order to get the chain of offense moving. Bibby's assist to TO ratio was a whole lot higher than what Francis's is. Thats the whole point of this, he complemented his big guys well and got the ball to them w/o turning it over or having huge mental lapses. The PG needs to worry about all this, the SG doesnt as much. I challenge anyone to name me one starting PG that had a sub 2 to 1 Assist to Turnover ratio in three of his first four seasons and still reamined the starting PG. I have been digging through stats and tried to find even ONE example but cant.
     
  8. WoodlandsBoy

    WoodlandsBoy Member

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    Why so morbid? Why not say "Mobley had a career ending injury"?
     
  9. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Member

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    Francis should have a worse A/TO ratio than many of the point guards mentioned because he is a far better scorer. You don't get TOs just trying to throw a pass. And you can have a very good A/TO ratio by simply only passing the ball when the guy is clearly open, where you are not really putting pressure on the other teams defense or showing court vision. The guys like Kidd and Stockton (and Payton--though to a slight lesser degree IMO) that have good A/TO while also pressing the defense are impressive, for sure, but simply because Alvin Williams has a better A/TO ratio does not mean he is a better PG than Francis however you define it. Kevin Ollie and Tyrone Lue also have good A/TO ratios but I don't think it means very much as far as being PGs making difficult decisions, showing court vision, and pressing the defense.

    Further, though Iverson is not technically a PG, quite often on the offensive end late in games his role isn't that different. I don't think it matters where you play a guy like Iverson or Francis--because of their scoring explosiveness (in contrast to Kidd, Stockton) their roles are kind of hybrid SG/PGs or PG/SGs. And noone will convince me AI doesn't have great court vision even if his A/TO ratio isn't hot.

    To end, Alvin Williams is a fine player. But he is far more valuable to his current team than the Rockets. We need a more consistent, physical and defensive oriented power forward far more than we need a guard.
     
  10. MManal

    MManal Member

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    Desert,

    No one is saying that Alvin Williams is a better player than Steve Francis or anything like that. The point that is trying to be made is that Steve Francis and this team in general needs better complementary backcourt talent to Steve than Cuttino Mobley. Cuttino technically could serve a role as a 6th man with much reduced mins, but the 42 MPG starter he has been isnt going to work in the long term. By saying that Francis can score well basically makes this point. Francis is a tremendous scorer and would be a HUGE scoring weapon if he didnt have to concentrate on playmaking as much. Decisions and playmaking are not his strong suit. Sure Francis could still make some drive and dish plays like Iverson does from time to time, but the weight of running the offense would not fall on his shoulders. Larry Brown complemented Iverson with a sure handed PG that doesnt necessarily score but knows when and where to pass w/o turning it over. He decided to go this route instead to trying to force a square peg through a round hole with an Iverson-Hughes backcourt or an Iverson-Stackhouse backcourt. Since that point, the Sixers have become a much much better team overall.

    The point is that whether it is Alvin Williams or complementing Steve with a player like Brent Barry; Francis does need a steadier hand to help mask his weaknesses and make the team better b/c Mobley just isnt it. Some posters on this BBS have discussed how Mobley has shown improvement before his injury b/c he was averaging more APG and is up to 3. Sure thats great and all, but how about the fact that his turnovers have increased also? Cuttino may average 3 APG, but he also averages 2.9 TO, and his TO numbers have increased DRASTICALLY this season and last. A 1 to 1 assist to turnover ratio is horrid when your PG is at 1.5 to 1. Contrast that to Brent Barry who is in the 2.5 to 2.7 Ast to TO ratio range over the last two seasons. Hate to become so statistical here, but the Steve-Cuttino backcourt playing together over 40 MPG just isnt going to work.
     
  11. snowblow11

    snowblow11 New Member

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    Alvin Williams is comparable to Eric Snow. On playmaking, they don't penetrate and dish like Jason Kidd; instead, they feed the ball and play in control. Their main offensive weapon is to shoot jumpers. The difference is that AW has a better range but Snow's midrange is more consistent. Both are good hustlers and defenders, and both are relatively clutch. AW has a good size at 6'5 so I would imagine that he is a defensive upgrade for the Rockets' backcourt.

    However, the above trade won't get you Alvin Williams. The Raptors' frontcourt does not need power forwards (unless it's a star player), but a center who can play interior D, rebound, and finish inside. It will allow Davis to play PF and JYD, McCoy, Foster and others to come off the bench. In my opinion, Cato is the player they would demand for AW.
     
  12. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Member

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    MM, since Francis and Mobley have remotely become the players they now are they have never played with a decent Rocket frontline before, let alone a formidable down low threat. To me the A/TO ratios from the last couple of years and early this season before Ming started asserting himself are pretty meaningless--because Cat and SF have been the offense. Now if at the end of this season and next season with a healthy & productive frontline lead by Ming our guards (as a set) still have very anomolous numbers of TOs relative to BOTH their assist and scoring production (say in comparison to a group that includes the backcourts of Allen & Cassell, Kobe & Fisher, Marbury & Hardaway, Iverson & Snow, Payton & Barry, Hamilton and Atkins, Terry and Newble/Glover, Wells & Anderson[or whomever starts up there], Richardson and Miller, Jackson/Bibby & Christie) then I might be persuaded some kind of change is needed. Again though, I think it is more informative to compare how the Rockets guards as a set (or at least the starting backcourt) in terms of Assists & Points /TOs relative to other either good backccourts or backcourts on teams that are good--and this comparison only becomes valid as the Rockets frontline becomes decent (appears on the way). Also, what is merely good in improving SF efficiency in something like A/TO may not be the best for the team. You have to ask if something like the total contributions from Williams or Snow + Francis is better than the total contributions from Francis & Cat. I think we would have a very hard time finding a PG to slide in next to SF that would be a better combination than SF/Cat.

    Further, right now they finally have good players to play with and are learning to play with a new offensive force inside. Think of it this way, if the Francis and Mobley were the backcourt of the Lakers (run through Shaq), Sac (run through Webber and many other decent options depending on match-ups) or SA (run through Duncan) would they have unreasonable numbers of TOs and not work so well as a backcourt tandem for those teams? Personally, I think they would function just fine. IMO as the Rockets get other quality playmakers and other potential mismatches on the floor the backcourt numbers you are concerned with will improve for two reasons. 1) their assists will go up because of greater conversion efficiency by the better shooting open guys who get the ball passed to them, and 2) they will have less pressure to always make plays and always create the oppertunnities to score.

    So in sum I think we just wait and see. Honestly I am far more concerned about our future forwards than I am in our guard play. The backcourt of Francis & Mobley with Norris & Hawk backing up just isn't a major concern to me.
     
  13. MManal

    MManal Member

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    Desert,

    Fair enough, Im willing to wait and see. We should have a better idea in the latter stages of this season whether this backcourt is working with the likes of Ming, Mo, etc. All I want is for one of them to become the type of player I described in the above description; I just dont see it happening though, but we'll see. I honestly believe that is going to be very important for this team to improve overall.
     
    #33 MManal, Dec 6, 2002
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2002

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