Fair enough. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/CD3M_5yrs.png This data is for a 3 month CD, and the one year CD rates are 1% over these, so in 2001, you would have gotten nearly 6.5% (if you bought at the beginning of the year as we presumably did with the DOW index). Rolling it over in '02 would have gotten you just under 3% (lets call it 2.75), '03 would have gotten you just over 2% (let's call it an even 2), '04 was an even 2%, and '05 was 3.5%. Return would have been 1783.44 with those numbers for a whopping 17.7% total return or an average 4.45%. Minus your brother's inflation numbers leaves us with a 2.45% real return on a CD versus under one percent from the DOW fund. Run away now, little boy. In a substantive argument based on facts, you will lose to me every time, which is the real reason for the bong references, isn't it? You feel inadequate and as such need to put other people down. I know a good therapist who can work closely with your reading teacher to help you come along.
How about taking the 9/10/2001 number and do the math? Then compare that against the historical real return of the US stock market. Prepare to be underwhelmed.
The point is before 9/10/2001, we were starting the down turn of a economic cycle. And 9/11 contributed to the drastic drop of stock prices, and if you look at the return after the crash, DOW has done very well.
I didn't pick it, svpernaut mentioned that the DOW regularly spikes over 11,000 and I pointed out that it has only been to 11K one day in the past four years. That is where that number came from. True enough, but I wasn't using the DOW to talk about the health of the economy. I was replying to svpernaut and it ballooned once the trader_texx brothers chimed in and tried to question my ability to do math, which is one thing that I do extraordinarily well. Yes, I did. Did you know that the only reason that GDP is still growing so much is because of government spending? The most recent consumer spending numbers showed a .3% increase from the year before. We, the people, are sill increasing GDP, we are just doing it by allowing the politicians to run massive deficits that we will have to pay back eventually.
The portion of your post quoted by No Worries. As a reminder, here's the thread five month ago: http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=97558 The graphs I posted in that thread still hold the myth busting power today, look:
Maybe you are having trouble understanding my original post. My point was "I think using stock indexes (particular only using one index) to demonstrate the health of the economy is just dumb. There are just so many other variables in play." You can pick one stock index and one period of time to get the number to look anyway you want.
moon you're so far off topic that it's hilarious. You're spinning your wheels calculating Dow returns and CD note returns? I know you claim to be quite the mathlete, but you're simply not proving anything. We're talking about the economy, here, not a basket of 30 stocks. Your focus needs to shift to GDP growth and unemployment numbers, which are the best measures of an economy. Your derailing attempts of rehashing your math skills just aren't proving anything. You're still down and out in this thread, novice.
Also, the currency market dwarfs fixed income. And the US Dollar is down double digits vs. all other major currencies the past few years.
Good, so you admit you were FLAT WRONG by using current rates. In addition to being FLAT WRONG about how to calculate historical CD returns, you are also FLAT WRONG about thinking that the Dow is the measuring stick for the economy. So all that time you just spent calculating CD returns and comparing it to the Dow's return was a total waste of time and effort. Congrats on that. All you have proven with this thread is that you are hopelessly lost with regard to economic matters to the point where you are willing to do endless, meaningless calculations in vain. You swung and missed on the point entirely multiple times. You sir, have been OWNED beyond all recognition. OBAR
LOL - why is Europe complaining about the dollar being down? Help me out, expert! Can't wait to hear your response! The US dollar being down is not a measure of the economy.
Sure I was being a bit lazy in that I didn't delete the irrelevant part in your post when quoting it. The mere fact that you would still use this *fact* to buttress your argument shows you are not being awfully honest with US economic situation in the past three years.
What's this? Back from the Pink Poodle so soon?? Nexxxt time ya gotta hang in there, bro. Another 5-6 dances and she was gonna finally grant his Majesty a peek of her left nipple! And another thing, brahhh. Kindly refrain from addressing me as "expert" in these parts. Per post #109 of this thread, only his Exxxcelency has been ass-cended to the Throne as Emper-w**** of GrEgOnOmIcZ
Huh? IIRC the DJIA was ~9500 in the week prior to 9/11. Thus has gained about 1000 points from then to now.
How am I the one off topic? Wasn't this thread about Iraq and dissent until your brother hijacked it with his claims of a "booming" economy? So far, I have proved conclusively that even a Certificate of Deposit, not exactly the financial instrument with the highest returns, has outstripped the earnings on the stocks in the 30 most watched companies in our economy. When measuring the earnings of the richest among us, you are correct that those are the best measures. However, those of us in the middle and lower classes simply are not feeling the benefits as evidenced by many posts and several articles, not to mention the anecdotal evidence that I have not even bothered to talk about. Whatever. I don't have to prove anything to you. The evidence is here in black and white and all but the blind partisans can see it clearly. Put your GOP colored glasses back on and go back to sleep.
I love it when you get so flustered that you just trumpet your baseless claims and drop insulting remarks. This signals that I have won and you don't have a response. Next step for you, run away with your tail between your legs like the whipped puppy we all see you as.
man....if there was ever any doubt about partisanship and debate...this economic pissing match is about as conclusive as it gets. Not sure the economy is 'booming' but i look at inflation and unemployment rates, and the opportunities I see around me, and i really can't complain. (ignoring, like everyone does, the mounting deficits of course). Perhaps this is proof positive that the president plays only a small role in the direction of the economy. But then again...i'm a probably a bit older than you folks, and am measuring against more than just the dot-com hysteria.
You know it kinda funny. I have been saying here in this thread that the economy was *average*. I see both the good and the bad. Of course since I am not in the economic boom, I must somehow hate America, embrace exterme liberalism, have the education of a third grader, etc.
