giddyup - CNN is basically talking about how well the GOP is doing. Here's an update of all the latest Senate tallies: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2002/pages/senate/index.htm Minnesota only has like 2,000 votes tallies so far.
I sure don't understand sometimes how CNN can call a race. For example, they've declared Henry Bonilla the winner of the Texas 23rd even though with 37% of the precincts reporting, Bonilla is losing 71% to 28%. That's one heck of a gap to make up. I guess they've got stats to support calling that race, but it sure looks weird to me.
I just saw one of my old Political Science professors on Channel 11, Dr. Bob Stein. Apparently he is their political commentator. He is a political genius, but he is *very* liberal. He hated my guts when I was a vocal member of his class. He literally would refuse to call on me when I had my hand raised, so I had to resort to blurting out comments.
The recession began in Q1 2001, as I correctly stated. Bill Clinton was the president in January 2001. .................................................. Do you seriously not get this? If the recession started in February 2001, you would be incorrect in stating that the recession started during the Clinton term. Your graph does not state whether the recession began in January, February, or March. In fact, as No Worries posted, the recession may have started in March 2001, which would mean Clinton was clearly not in office at the start of the recession. .................................................. What's the point, Jan, Feb, March? Bush certainly doesn't have any time to implement any fiscal or trade policy in that period. Consumer confidence? University of michigan survey certainly doesn't show up a blip. In fact it holds up pretty well even into the recession. BTW, NBER recession dates is a just guideline, it's more useful to guage the half life of business cycle than putting a certain date on the so called recession. NBER and FED also routinesly revise their GDP numbers. In some cases, they even goes back to tens of years ago.
TJ has his theory on when the 2001 recession started. Likewise, the National Bureau of Economic Research has its own theory. Here is the NBER opinion: "The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee has determined that a peak in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in March 2001. A peak marks the end of an expansion and the beginning of a recession. The determination of a peak date in March is thus a determination that the expansion that began in March 1991 ended in March 2001 and a recession began." (http://www.nber.org/cycles/november2001/) TJ is not an economics expert and is decidely partisan. "The NBER is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to promoting a greater understanding of how the economy works. Our research is conducted by more than 600 university professors around the country, the leading scholars in their fields." (http://www.nber.org/) TJ uses one metric to determine recession, two consecutive quarters of decline in real GNP. "The NBER does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GNP. Rather, a recession is a period of significant decline in total output, income, employment, and trade, usually lasting from six months to a year, and marked by widespread contractions in many sectors of the economy." (http://www.nber.org/cycles.html) Dare I say CASE CLOSED.
