[ON THE RECORD] Astros win predictions

"They're not fans of baseball, they're fans of winning." -- Larry Dierker, on the Houston fanbase.

 

A little late to the party:
Astros Baseball Talk
Astros Fans Online

 

Or maybe fans of both. Nothing wrong about getting upset about your team sucking ass.

 

Then there shouldn't be trouble finding things on the field to talk about, right?

 

87 wins

 

wasn't that 2006?

 

yep...

 

I voted 75-77 the day this poll began. They are definitely surprising me. I'm not sure how long they can keep it up though. Berkman and Tejada are both performing well beyond expectations. More than enough to counter the lousy starts by Bourne and Towles.

 

Public polls scare off so many voters.....it is a shame really.

Danged cowards !



DD

 

Nope,............ I kept reading right before the season how the Stros would compete for being the worst team in baseball, and now they are on pace for 89 to 90 wins....

Either Big Puma is having the best year ever by an Astro, or the team has some things going for it....

 

How does 93 sound?

How does both sound?

One thing I'm not hearing anyone talk about is how effective Valverde has been since struggling early. 14 consecutive scoreless appearances now. Cooper seems to have grasped who else he has in the bullpen, now, and how to best use them.

Tejada is batting near .350.

Pence is just beginning to find his groove.

If Bourn and/or Towles ever find their way, it's just piling on.

 

It is a wonderful Ride, props to you Roxran for making your prediction pre-season, sir !!!

DD

 

The numerical aspect of these projections really interested me, so I pulled out my handy Excel 2003 and had some fun.

Right now the pace is 93 wins (.571 * 162), but yesterday it was 91, and if they win or lose today it will become 94 or 90, respectively.

The last ten games, the wins pace (wpct * 162) went from 83 to 93. (NICE!)

I took the wins pace from every game in the season and averaged it out--it went from 0 after game 1 and game 2 to 66 after last night.

Then I decided to only average the last ten games' win paces. Right now, that number is at 88. Ten games ago it was 77.

<table style="text-align: center;"><tr><td><b>Date</td><td><b>Res</td><td width="25"><b>W</td><td width="25"><b>L</td><td><b>Pct.</td><td style="color: red;"><b>Pace</td><td><b>Trend</td><td><b>10-gm<br />trend</td></b></tr><tr><td>31-Mar</td><td>L</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>.000</td><td style="color: red;">0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>1-Apr</td><td>L</td><td>0</td><td>2</td><td>.000</td><td style="color: red;">0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>2-Apr</td><td>W</td><td>1</td><td>2</td><td>.333</td><td style="color: red;">54</td><td>18</td><td>18</td></tr><tr><td>3-Apr</td><td>L</td><td>1</td><td>3</td><td>.250</td><td style="color: red;">41</td><td>24</td><td>24</td></tr><tr><td>4-Apr</td><td>W</td><td>2</td><td>3</td><td>.400</td><td style="color: red;">65</td><td>32</td><td>32</td></tr><tr><td>5-Apr</td><td>L</td><td>2</td><td>4</td><td>.333</td><td style="color: red;">54</td><td>36</td><td>36</td></tr><tr><td>6-Apr</td><td>L</td><td>2</td><td>5</td><td>.286</td><td style="color: red;">46</td><td>37</td><td>37</td></tr><tr><td>7-Apr</td><td>W</td><td>3</td><td>5</td><td>.375</td><td style="color: red;">61</td><td>40</td><td>40</td></tr><tr><td>8-Apr</td><td>L</td><td>3</td><td>6</td><td>.333</td><td style="color: red;">54</td><td>42</td><td>42</td></tr><tr><td>9-Apr</td><td>L</td><td>3</td><td>7</td><td>.300</td><td style="color: red;">49</td><td>42</td><td>42</td></tr><tr><td>11-Apr</td><td>L</td><td>3</td><td>8</td><td>.273</td><td style="color: red;">44</td><td>42</td><td>47</td></tr><tr><td>12-Apr</td><td>W</td><td>4</td><td>8</td><td>.333</td><td style="color: red;">54</td><td>43</td><td>52</td></tr><tr><td>13-Apr</td><td>W</td><td>5</td><td>8</td><td>.385</td><td style="color: red;">62</td><td>45</td><td>53</td></tr><tr><td>15-Apr</td><td>L</td><td>5</td><td>9</td><td>.357</td><td style="color: red;">58</td><td>46</td><td>55</td></tr><tr><td>16-Apr</td><td>W</td><td>6</td><td>9</td><td>.400</td><td style="color: red;">65</td><td>47</td><td>55</td></tr><tr><td>17-Apr</td><td>L</td><td>6</td><td>10</td><td>.375</td><td style="color: red;">61</td><td>48</td><td>55</td></tr><tr><td>18-Apr</td><td>L</td><td>6</td><td>11</td><td>.353</td><td style="color: red;">57</td><td>48</td><td>56</td></tr><tr><td>19-Apr</td><td>L</td><td>6</td><td>12</td><td>.333</td><td style="color: red;">54</td><td>49</td><td>56</td></tr><tr><td>20-Apr</td><td>W</td><td>7</td><td>12</td><td>.368</td><td style="color: red;">60</td><td>49</td><td>56</td></tr><tr><td>21-Apr</td><td>W</td><td>8</td><td>12</td><td>.400</td><td style="color: red;">65</td><td>50</td><td>58</td></tr><tr><td>22-Apr</td><td>W</td><td>9</td><td>12</td><td>.429</td><td style="color: red;">69</td><td>51</td><td>60</td></tr><tr><td>23-Apr</td><td>W</td><td>10</td><td>12</td><td>.455</td><td style="color: red;">74</td><td>52</td><td>62</td></tr><tr><td>24-Apr</td><td>W</td><td>11</td><td>12</td><td>.478</td><td style="color: red;">77</td><td>53</td><td>64</td></tr><tr><td>25-Apr</td><td>W</td><td>12</td><td>12</td><td>.500</td><td style="color: red;">81</td><td>54</td><td>66</td></tr><tr><td>26-Apr</td><td>L</td><td>12</td><td>13</td><td>.480</td><td style="color: red;">78</td><td>55</td><td>68</td></tr><tr><td>27-Apr</td><td>L</td><td>12</td><td>14</td><td>.462</td><td style="color: red;">75</td><td>56</td><td>69</td></tr><tr><td>28-Apr</td><td>L</td><td>12</td><td>15</td><td>.444</td><td style="color: red;">72</td><td>57</td><td>70</td></tr><tr><td>29-Apr</td><td>W</td><td>13</td><td>15</td><td>.464</td><td style="color: red;">75</td><td>57</td><td>73</td></tr><tr><td>30-Apr</td><td>L</td><td>13</td><td>16</td><td>.448</td><td style="color: red;">73</td><td>58</td><td>74</td></tr><tr><td>2-May</td><td>W</td><td>14</td><td>16</td><td>.467</td><td style="color: red;">76</td><td>58</td><td>75</td></tr><tr><td>3-May</td><td>W</td><td>15</td><td>16</td><td>.484</td><td style="color: red;">78</td><td>59</td><td>76</td></tr><tr><td>4-May</td><td>W</td><td>16</td><td>16</td><td>.500</td><td style="color: red;">81</td><td>60</td><td>77</td></tr><tr><td>6-May</td><td>W</td><td>17</td><td>16</td><td>.515</td><td style="color: red;">83</td><td>60</td><td>77</td></tr><tr><td>7-May</td><td>W</td><td>18</td><td>16</td><td>.529</td><td style="color: red;">86</td><td>61</td><td>78</td></tr><tr><td>8-May</td><td>L</td><td>18</td><td>17</td><td>.514</td><td style="color: red;">83</td><td>62</td><td>78</td></tr><tr><td>9-May</td><td>W</td><td>19</td><td>17</td><td>.528</td><td style="color: red;">86</td><td>62</td><td>79</td></tr><tr><td>10-May</td><td>W</td><td>20</td><td>17</td><td>.541</td><td style="color: red;">88</td><td>63</td><td>81</td></tr><tr><td>11-May</td><td>W</td><td>21</td><td>17</td><td>.553</td><td style="color: red;">90</td><td>64</td><td>82</td></tr><tr><td>12-May</td><td>W</td><td>22</td><td>17</td><td>.564</td><td style="color: red;">91</td><td>65</td><td>84</td></tr><tr><td>13-May</td><td>L</td><td>22</td><td>18</td><td>.550</td><td style="color: red;">89</td><td>65</td><td>85</td></tr><tr><td>14-May</td><td>W</td><td>23</td><td>18</td><td>.561</td><td style="color: red;">91</td><td>66</td><td>87</td></tr><tr><td>15-May</td><td>W</td><td>24</td><td>18</td><td>.571</td><td style="color: red;">93</td><td>66</td><td>88</td></tr></table>

 

ummm.....can i change my vote?

 

Man that crow is horible and i have to eat the whole bird
man what can i say about the Astros i was wrong they are comming together as a team. I said 66-96 boy was i wrong and i am proud to be a Astro fan

 

February 18, 2008
BP's PECOTA projection for the 2008 Stros

The sabermetricians over at Baseball Prospectus have developed a statistical system for projecting baseball player performance called PECOTA, which is short for "Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm." PECOTA player performance based on comparison with thousands of historical player-seasons and analyzes similarities with past player-seasons based not only on rate statistics, but also height, weight, age, and many other factors. It is a remarkably accurate predictor of player performance.

BP annually prepares PECOTA projections on each Major League and minor league ballplayer, so it is a simple process to aggregate those individual numbers and project how each MLB team will do. BP's projection for each MLB Division in the 2008 season is here ($), although you will have to subscribe to BP to review the entire PECOTA projections.

Not surprisingly, BP projects the Stros to finish 74-88 (or one game better than last season), good for fourth in the NL Central behind the Cubs, Brewers and Reds. PECOTA projects the Stros' hitting to continue to be league-average with no meaningful improvement in the abysmal pitching that the club endured last season.

 

Fantacrap.

 

I need a Colorado like streak to get to 90.

DD