Let me show you how dumb it is to dominate the game with 3 bombs: We averaged 76.1 shots per game last year. Let's say we take 76.1 3's per game and make them at a 33.3% clip. Teams don't really guard the 3 point line on us and just let us shoot with a hand in the face. That 33.3% multiplied by 3 by 76.1 = 76.1 points per game. No one will foul us because they don't have to. They just have to score 77 points per game to beat us. Got it? It's stupid to shoot threes all day. It's like running up the middle in football. Everyone knows it doesn't work, but you do it to keep defenses honest. The minute they don't guard the middle, it's a big gain. Same for basketball. The minute the opposing team sinks in to stop the high percentage 2pt. plays, you snap a three and keep em' honest. The 3 is not THE weapon, it's just another weapon amongst many. Take what the defense gives you. It's smarter to play that way and the good teams all do it.
If the discussion is really more about Rafer Alston then there's definitely more to look at. I've been contemplating working up something that will put some numbers to how much the Rockets need to improve in their offensive efficiency which will include Rafer's shooting. More to come on this when I have a lot more time to do this. That being said we can get a gauge now as to how Rafer measured up in terms of contribution to the Rockets by just looking at some +/- numbers. Roland Ratings and On/Off Court Production: http://www.82games.com/0506/0506HOU.HTM Alston's Roland Rating is -2. All you need to know here is that it's a negative number which means he's hurting the team more than he's helping. Individual +/- Stats: http://www.82games.com/0506/0506HOU1.HTM Alston is -1.7 Net48 +/-. Again this indicates that when he's in the game the team was a -1.7 pts per 48 minutes with him in. Let's get even more under the hood here by considering the +/- with 2 player pairings. Player Tandem +/-: http://www.82games.com/0506/0506HOUP.HTM Rafer only has 2 other players that he has a positive +/- with and that's Chuck Hayes at +6 and McGrady at +2. For everyone else he had a negative +/- rating with. What all this means is that looking at the +/- ratings Rafer was a detriment and not a help over all his passing and assists not withstanding.
The year before, Alston was a +0.8. Our team was really, really bad last year. How is a point guard supposed to help his team as a pass first point guard with no one out there to help him?
The +.8 was the difference between Rafer and his sub. Rafer's on-court was -1.4. It's a fair argument that Rafer didn't have anyone to pass it to last year besides Yao and Tracy that could do anything with it. Here's what troubles me though. Rafer's pairing +/- stats seem to indicate that he was only effective with Hayes and TMac. With Yao it was a -1. Compare that to Head and Yao, and that pairing was a +7.
Don, If the defense just gives the 3 and just lets us shoot with a hand in the face, Novak is gonna nail at least 50% of them. You trade for Deiner, and put Deiner, Novak, Battier, McGrady, and Padgett out there and score 115 ppg. That's why hypotheticals don't work.
I don't know for certain, but I'd imagine the vidence points to teams doing well when they shoot their threes at a high percentage, and a lot of them, and not so well when they still shoot a lot, but at league average or worse. As with any strategy, you generally have to do it better than the opponent. If Rafer basically shoots league average on 3's, then 50% of the time he'll be out there shooting better at 3s than his opponent, 50% of the time worse. Shooting league average doesn't mean you suck, but is nothing to write home about either. Also, one would have to imagine that PF's, back-ups, etc. generally bring down the league average. If you sort last season on for guards only, by 3 point percentage, Rafer was 102nd among guards at 32.7%. Even if I generously say there are 32 players with minimal minutes, or minimal attempts, it still isn't pretty for Rafer. Basically, it's clear that for the most part just jacking 3's at a 33% clip isn't a way to be either an above average team, or an above average player. Phoenix, or Seattle of 2 years ago, were successfully in that they did hit at a higher clip. Top guards in the league also shoot at higher rates. Rafer has to shoot better. 4% - 5% better would be fine. This WILL make a big difference in how he is defended, how well the team does, yet it suprisingly isn't asking an enormous amount. If Rafer shoots 350 threes this year, we are talking a difference of making 130 vs. 115 or so - just 15 threes more, but again it WILL make a difference.
Not really! But if he makes three assists to Yao Ming in every game I would want to keep him as the starting Point Guard. If he makes these three assists he should average about 10 assists/gm.and be one of the top five in assists.
So, if I have this straight, the Rockets will shoot 76 OPEN threes every game and hit 50% of them? Isn't that offense pretty easy to figure out?
