Morey from the interviews talk a ton about marginal improvements being tougher at the top than in the middle. That it's much more difficult for a team to improve from 45 to 55 than from 20 to 30. Much more difficult to find a star over an average player. And if we sign Howard, it wouldn't just be the difference between him and Asik. But rather the difference between him and Asik for ~18 minutes plus difference between Howard and our backup center for ~18 minutes.
We were 2nd to last in PPG allowed but we were 16th in defensive efficiency, Asik was the biggest reason we were even that good. That said I agree Dwight is better and I would rather have Howard hands down. You bring him on and Asik becomes a great trade chip to either fill a hole or create cap space for another free agent signing.
Do teams like the Heat care about "cap holds"?? No. You pay superior talent superior money, and Dwight Howard is a superior talent. Honestly, it's a little mind-boggling that people don't understand the gap in talent between Asik and Howard. Defensively, Howard is a GAME CHANGER. More changed shots. More blocks. More command. Offensively, it's not even worth mentioning how far apart they are. Howard has hands, and that pick-and-roll is DEADLY when he's running it. I love what Asik brings to this team, but while $8m is an absolute bargain for him, there are just too many deficiencies in his game if we're considering winning a championship. I'm not saying he can't get better, but guys like Dwight Howard don't just become available everyday. You have to strike while the iron is hot.
On a advance stats perspective it's not very close, that's not much of a knock on Asik, just like saying CP3 is wayyy better than Lin isn't a knock on Lin. (nor is saying Harden still has nothing on MJ a knock on Harden, for example.) (for a simple advanced metric, take a look at WinShare and especially WinShare per 48 Min, this season it's Paul .287 Howard .134 Asik .108 Lin .099 Granted, if you assume that Howard is more like a .134 player going forward , then no, you wouldn't want him over Asik , there is that risk of course. but he was above .200 for 4 season before last. Of course, with big man, early decline / injury is always a danger. so if your angel is that Howard's toast and this is all that's left of him, that's acceptable, but I'm not a doctor, and he sure played a lot better towards the end of the season. Having said that, one needs to put into perspective that while our cap situation isn't bad at all, getting a max player in the new CBA these days is not nearly as easy as you'd assume, we probably need to make at least a T-Rob trade to even offer Paul or Howard the max, unless of course, you want to trade away Asik first then ask if Howard would come, I'm fairly sure no matter how high you are on Howard, that is a path you would not agree on, since the odds are we'll end up with Greg Smith as our starting C next year. Morey will certainly look into this very hard, but from what I'm seeing the odds of us not getting either is still pretty high, too many suitors, and we need to take some risk to even make serious offers to them. We're not at the point where we can risk blowing up the team to go for that extra super star IMHO.
I too think people are being too sentimental about Asik. He's a good Center and more than servicable but if you have a chance to get an all star like Howard, you have to go for it. Unlike Asik, Howard can catch the ball and finish regularly around the basket. He's a major upgrade both offensively and defensively. Mentally I will say he may not be since we all know how he can act when things aren't going his way. What the rockets missed is a 2nd go to player when teams game plan for Harden. Parsons really stepped up as our 2nd leading scorer but he's not another superstar caliber player that is up there with Harden. I think if we get another superstar and have Parsons as our 3rd option, we are solid.
People forget that Dwight is one of perhaps 3 players in the league capable of carrying a team to the finals.
I would love to have Dwight over Asik. However, would Morey entertain the idea of giving Howard a player option to entice him to come here even more? I certainly hope not.
It would also be the difference in $12M/yr that we could put in another position of need, especially at the PF hole. For example, Howard's salary = Asik + Lin + Delfino + minimum contract. For people who don't appreciate Lin, it may not look like much. But if flip it the other way, Howard plus Delfino or Asik + Josh Smith? Or Asik + K Love? And what happens when we need to up Parsons after his 3rd year (reportedly do-able according to Bima)? If we get Gasol for a year, he can easily slide to the 5, meaning you get 48 minutes of either Gasol or Asik at the 5, and another 22 minutes or so of Gasol at the 4. Is that better than having Dwight? Especially with Gasol being a 1 year contract/expiring, vs Dwight a 5 year obligation.
Lets not trade Chandler Parsons for Lebron James, since Lebron doesn't produce 20x what Parsons does.
Asik has never been asked to produce offensively, I think this off-season if he can work on developing a couple of reliable go-to moves in the post, say a hook and a mid-range turnaround then he is more valuable to THIS team than Howard. We have scorers elsewhere, if Asik can draw a double-team or drain a midrange shot off a pick and roll then we have an altogether different offensive beast. Will take some of the scoring load off our other guys, especially when the 3's dry up, will also draw help and free them up on the wing.
I think part of the problem here is people comparing player vs player and not the impact on the whole team... Yes Dwight is better and yes if you can you get him, but I think the impact on this team with an upgrade at another position would be significantly more substantial. If your team is the sum of its parts, and every player is ranked on a scale of 1-10, you've got a 9 in harden, 7's with upward potential in parsons and asik, and you've got a 5-? In Lin and a ****ing 1 at power forward. I would rather spend the money for the biggest impact. Sure, Howard is a 10, but that's a net of +3 on the scale, whereas an elite power forward gets you +7 easily. Now it would be sweet of that elite power forward was.... Dwight Howard :grin: :grin::grin:
Honestly Im all for Dwight more than any other free agent. A Dwight-Asik front line (assuming they start together) solves MANY of our defensive woes. Even though preferably the team needs a stretch four would be ideal. But IMO we can get enough scoring out of Harden-Lin-Parsons off drives, fast breaks, and 3s. While we could also post up dwight when the offense gets stagnate and we should expect good decisions out of him and a low number of turnovers
If signing D12 doesn't work out, I'm all for getting Gasol on the cheap for a year until you can make a run at LMA or Love. But if you can sign D12 out right without giving up much in trade than that seems like a no-brainer. You'd have to give up a lot more in trade to get Love or LMA. On another note, I think the idea of moneyball is to get the best value in a capped economy by signing players that well outperform their contracts. That usually means rookies and max players (since both of their salaries are effectively capped). Everyone in the middle usually has their value determined by the market and therefore aren't truly under or over valued. Asik is good value for his contract, but it won't be for long. The market will reset his contract value in two years. In addition, if you could sign and lock up D12 for 4 years, not only does his value as a max player exceed his contract (since it's capped), even his incremental improvement over Asik is a significant improvement since he's the best player at his position. It's like looking at peoples ranking on a bell curve. The differences between people at the top end of 140-150 IQ score might only be a few points, but it represents a huge difference in what percentile they fall into. You might not think the difference between someone ranked in the 90th percentile (Asik) and someone in the 99.9th percentile (D12) would yield 2.5x the difference in salary, but as someone quote Morey already, making the top end improvement is much harder to do and therefore it's worth the salary differential. Plus that 9.99 percentile difference might not make that big of a difference in the regular season when you're playing the bottom 90%, but it makes all the difference when you're playing in the playoffs against the top 10%.
As per my last post, getting players in the 9's and 10's is extremely hard and I think a must if you want to win championships. Superstars win in this league, not a team full of 5-7's. Having said that, if you can sign D12 (a 10) and trade Asik for equal or close value for a PF, that nets you a center (10) and a PF (7). Better than a center (7) and PF (7). If you have a chance at a superstar you take it 10 times out of 10. The rest of the players are easier to acquire.
Just say this Grantland podcast with Jalen Rose: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uy-Zj5kGCHk At 34:00 He gives his reasons why he thinks Dwight is going to Houston. And seems to indicate he will play with Asik together.
If Howard able to bring in CP3, then Lakers is a better destination. We are talking about LA here. What does Houston can offer beside we are a tax free state? Nothing. While I think Texas is great, but not everyone enjoy hot and muddy weather throughout the year.
Isn't the Rocket's game plan to have a stretch 4 that can knock down mid jumpers and 3? Do we expect Dwight or Asiik to develop those ability if they were to play together or are we going to change the game plan to be more like Grizzly and play inside out?
Why not just get a PF that is 10? A PF with a midrange and good at FT. Not to mention Asik is working on his mid-range and has a higher FT percentage. You can say Asik cannot catch the ball, yada yada, but for someone who was average 12 mpg, 5 reb and 3 points just 1 season again, this is a major improvement. Did anyone remember how Asik was in the beginning of the season? Get no point, layups, but near the end of the season, he dunk most of the time and knock down 2 open mid-range.
